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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

If we score anyway outside of the mountains it’s going to have to be with some upper level cold pocket help. Big ask but there’ll be some fun NAM runs if this look holds ???
 
Brent said:
Well the 3 days of winter we had at Christmas was fun
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I’m counting my blessings that I got over 2 inches of snow with the 2 systems Christmas week. I knew going into this winter for middle Tennessee it was going to be about an 80% chance of seeing 3 inches or less of snow this winter. I base this off of the averages of getting 3 winter’s in a row with big snow totals and the chances are slim to none. Since I’ve lived here in 2006 I’ve never had 3 winters in a row where at least 5 inches of snow has fallen. Of course it has happened a number of times but that was way back in the 60s 70s and maybe some years in the 80s.

Snow totals last 3 winters.
2021- 12.5 inches
2022- 19.5 inches
2023- 2.25 inches

If I can somehow get another 2.75 inches of snow this season I can experience 3 winters in a row like they got in the old days. It’s going to be hard though with this ---- pattern we are in and no end in site. February is actually my snowiest month though so who knows. Who’s up for a Fab Feb winter miracle?
 
Today's 12z run v/s yesterday's 12z run. Congrats Chicago.

These blasted 50/50's are the bane of our existence. ?‍♂️

But, pac ridge is shooting up but doesn't do a lot of good with low tracking into IL.

trend-ecmwf_full-2023010612-f144.500h_anom.na.gif
 
J.C. said:
Just like December 2021, KATL has a real shot at going the entire month of January without a freeze. Starting out at a healthy +16.2F for the first 5 days.
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I bet we have a few 28 degree mornings later in the month but it's certainly looking bad if you like cool weather.
 
This is what we are calling January?! Wow

CXUS52 KGSP 060917
CF6GSP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
MONTH: JANUARY
YEAR: 2023
LATITUDE: 34 54 N
LONGITUDE: 82 13 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: :pCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :pK WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 59 47 53 10 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.8 10 220 M M 8 12 12 220
2 72 48 60 17 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.4 16 230 M M 8 12 20 230
3 63 50 57 15 8 0 0.91 0.0 0 7.0 16 200 M M 8 123 21 200
4 64 51 58 16 7 0 2.74 0.0 0 8.6 18 200 M M 9 13 22 210
5 64 39 52 10 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.5 21 240 M M 0 27 270
================================================================================
SM 322 235 45 0 3.65 0.0 34.3 M 33
================================================================================
AV 64.4 47.0 6.9 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> 21 240 27 270

This is why I hated missing any snow with the December front, that may end up being the only legitimaye cold we have all winter. There are always comments about snow before NY or before Christmas being "bonus snow," but the reality is it may well be the only snow. Take it when we can get it.
 
Meh, we knew this would happen deep down. Can't have a perfect setup with no real cold around 7 days out and hope nothing changes. It always does.

Maybe I can salvage some snow showers in the mountains once the storm passes.
 
Do you remember the good old days when the models would show a winter storm 10 days out, then lose it, then bring it back inside 5 days?
 
I think it's important to not look at any specific storm outside day 4 or 5 on any model. H5, sure. Actual storm, no.

You'll save yourselves a lot of heartache on these day 6+ "threats"
 
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