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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Rain Cold said:
Just a reminder, we should have a 6-12 hour window on or about January 28th to score. Then, after a record-shattering February torch, we will likely see another short window toward the end of March or early April. Given that we still have those one or two shots left, it's way too early for weather weenies to throw in the towel right now.
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I already lit the towel and threw it into a vat of kerosene. Winter is over!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Never a good sign when you can’t get a good pattern with the MJO on the left side of the diagram.

When this hits the right side of the diagram in Feb ?

View attachment 129211
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Gonna have three, freaking, severe weather seasons this year. January, February and April. Crap.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Severe weather season never ends!
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True, I guess, though March through early May is usually the worst around here. Tropical systems that make landfall to the west of me also generate a fair amount of severe weather. I don't like extending the season, backing it up into January and February. Hoping March is a lamb this year.
 
Seems like that’s all we are ever good for in the south rain and severe storms got to love the winter season here not
 
NoSnowATL said:
MJO going into 8,1,2. Its about to get wild.
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Or the MJO forecast is wrong and the ensembles are right, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are picking up on something that over-rides the MJO effects, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are completely, unreliably, innaccurate. Something is working to not bring cold to this side of the globe.
 
weatherfide said:
Or the MJO forecast is wrong and the ensembles are right, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are picking up on something that over-rides the MJO effects, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are completely, unreliably, innaccurate. Something is working to not bring cold to this side of the globe.
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Or it’s on the warm side of P8-P2.
 
Can we please just have one more polar blast before the end of January for the midsouth/SE? It doesn’t have to be anything like Christmas… just a couple nights in the upper teens and highs in the low 30s. Also can I order a decent disturbance swinging through the lower Mississippi Valley thru S AL then gliding up the Carolina coastlines? Please? Is that too much to ask?
 
Upcoming modeled pattern reminds me of 2016 but that was strong nino...

compday.xlop1_m8Fr.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_10day-4129600.png
 
For some hope...cold is marginal, but back that ridge up a little and think cold thoughts would help.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3654400.png
 
GSO EPS 24hr snowfall. That's a fairly large signal.

And no...I am not buying any shovels...yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-KGSO-indiv_snow_24-2747200.png
 
This is whack! Average high is 28 and average low is 12. Somebody stop the madness! 758F860A-2BD2-44F7-833C-4F8A5A6E4E66.pngYou
 
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