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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

I guess the difference is how u constitute a short period of favorable time. I think realistically 2+ weeks of favorable pattern is possible January 15th on through early February. That’s decent for me. For before February and march.

2+ weeks of favorability is generous. I'd be pleasantly surprised if we get more than 7-10 days of a good pattern. I'm afraid we're going to flip to a GOA ridge/-PNA rather quickly, possibly even before the MJO reaches the Maritime Continent. Hopefully, I'm wrong there.
 
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Just my opinion but I hear this tune time and time again at this point in most if not all of our winters around here in the se all my life. That's the way we roll around here. I'm discouraged to. But it's where we live. We can talk about it most every year at this point. Sure things don't look good for cold and snow for us at the moment but I've seen a lot worse patterns going forward. After living here in the NC southern foothills my whole life for 40 years and getting at least a trace of some type of winter precip each year and in some of the worst winters around here that ive experienced 05-06 awful after Dec ice storm which why that winter as a whole wasn't a complete bust but we torched the rest of winter after and before the ice storm. 06-07 Feb dusting saved me, torch before and after. 11-12 worst year for me personally, a few sleet pellets and a couple of flakes, did have one day below freezing or it would of been worse, but it was the worst I've ever experienced if you like winter weather, a dream winter for you if you don't like winter. I don't know what the future holds the rest of this winter but I do know some of our best winter storms tend to sneak up on us just a few days in advance without any true cold air source available no matter what the pattern looks like down the road or whatever model your looking at right now whether it shows true cold air or not or looks not so good down the road. As for February, if we torch most if all of February as is typical with Feb la ninas with this la Nina pattern in it's 3rd year in a row all it's doing is setting us up for another cool to cold spring for the fourth spring in a row again. Wouldn't you guys that love warmth want at least a normal February so you want have to deal with cool temps through May again. Not saying we are going to have another below average spring again but if February is torch the writing is on the wall again. Just my 2 cents on my past experiences. Happy New Year to all.
 
Just my opinion but I hear this tune time and time again at this point in most if not all of our winters around here in the se all my life. That's the way we roll around here. I'm discouraged to. But it's where we live. We can talk about it most every year at this point. Sure things don't look good for cold and snow for us at the moment but I've seen a lot worse patterns going forward. After living here in the NC southern foothills my whole life for 40 years and getting at least a trace of some type of winter precip each year and in some of the worst winters around here that ive experienced 05-06 awful after Dec ice storm which why that winter as a whole wasn't a complete bust but we torched the rest of winter after and before the ice storm. 06-07 Feb dusting saved me, torch before and after. 11-12 worst year for me personally, a few sleet pellets and a couple of flakes, did have one day below freezing or it would of been worse, but it was the worst I've ever experienced if you like winter weather, a dream winter for you if you don't like winter. I don't know what the future holds the rest of this winter but I do know some of our best winter storms tend to sneak up on us just a few days in advance without any true cold air source available no matter what the pattern looks like down the road or whatever model your looking at right now whether it shows true cold air or not or looks not so good down the road. As for February, if we torch most if all of February as is typical with Feb la ninas with this la Nina pattern in it's 3rd year in a row all it's doing is setting us up for another cool to cold spring for the fourth spring in a row again. Wouldn't you guys that love warmth want at least a normal February so you want have to deal with cool temps through May again. Not saying we are going to have another below average spring again but if February is torch the writing is on the wall again. Just my 2 cents on my past experiences. Happy New Year to all.
You're not too far from me. I have already received a few sleet pellets which was recorded as a trace so it very well could be over. There have been several winters like that and it's only a matter of time before there is another one. Odds are there will be some accumulating winter weather though at some point. There will also be a winter at some point, and I say it happens in the 2020s but if not certainly shortly after where GSP, CLT and RDU get completely blanked. It has actually already happened at GSP in 11-12 for the first time. CLT has always recorded at least a trace. Not sure about RDU. It has to happen with how fast we're warming. But that's a sensitive topic for another thread.
 
You're not too far from me. I have already received a few sleet pellets which was recorded as a trace so it very well could be over. There have been several winters like that and it's only a matter of time before there is another one. Odds are there will be some accumulating winter weather though at some point. There will also be a winter at some point, and I say it happens in the 2020s but if not certainly shortly after where GSP, CLT and RDU get completely blanked. It has actually already happened at GSP in 11-12 for the first time. CLT has always recorded at least a trace. Not sure about RDU. It has to happen with how fast we're warming. But that's a sensitive topic for another thread.
Yeah I agree with your post. I know we're pretty close to each other climate wise. I recorded a few tiny flakes the night of the 26th, just a few, probably the same time you recorded yours. I'm afraid we might go into that mountain snow pattern coming up and the rest of us foothills, upstate, piedmont, and n ga all end up with those cold rains and then we're knocking on springs door but who knows what happens going forward. I remember the last day of Jan 2020 nothing forecasted but a cold rain the next morning and woke up the next morning to a inch of quick snow and then was put under a wwa. So it change awfully quick and usually does around here as you well know. Hopefully we can score something this winter.
 
Look, I really believe that we have a really hard time in this country staying in our lane. I try *really* hard to stay in my lane. I’m a hobbyist with little to no time studying the underlying machinations of what makes forecasting a thing.

However, this just stunned me today. This guy is supposed to be a degreed professional:

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95098926-D9EB-4354-922F-FE2458AB3D1F.jpeg
 
Don’t know how you go from this to this, but all hail king NAMBBC410CD-13A7-4C06-8E9E-E41E728F8DFB.png82996209-4398-4F51-BC99-058A065EC676.png5CF4787C-DDB6-4917-8DAF-776EFC6E74ED.png
 
Look, I really believe that we have a really hard time in this country staying in our lane. I try *really* hard to stay in my lane. I’m a hobbyist with little to no time studying the underlying machinations of what makes forecasting a thing.

However, this just stunned me today. This guy is supposed to be a degreed professional:

View attachment 129130

View attachment 129131

He isn't a degreed professional. He got a BS in environmental sciences. He's not a meteorologist

https://meritpages.com/MarkMargavage
 
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I thought T got higher when it was warmer
This fact is well established by many studies. In fact testosterone levels are usually higher in summer months. Exposing your family jewels to direct sunlight a few minutes a day is supposed to help T-levels. Try it if you can practically do it, but only for a few minutes of morning sun…..and you’re welcome!
 
This fact is well established by many studies. In fact testosterone levels are usually higher in summer months. Exposing your family jewels to direct sunlight a few minutes a day is supposed to help T-levels. Try it if you can practically do it, but only for a few minutes of morning sun…..and you’re welcome!
New meaning to sun's out guns out
 
This fact is well established by many studies. In fact testosterone levels are usually higher in summer months. Exposing your family jewels to direct sunlight a few minutes a day is supposed to help T-levels. Try it if you can practically do it, but only for a few minutes of morning sun…..and you’re welcome!
Something tells me Lick does this.
 
I mean I have seen like 5 total flakes so far this winter here in Roanoke, VA. We average over a foot of snow a year. At this point in the winter we typically have seen a few inches. Yes things are not looking great on the ensembles but I’m not worried, I know things will balance out eventually.
Maybe next winter you'll score two feet of snow and you can average 2022/23 and 2023/24 together and get your balance? It is not looking good this year for snow below 40 degrees north in the east. I've got my towel in hand...probably going to throw it next week, after looking at long range ensemble patterns then.
 
Look, I really believe that we have a really hard time in this country staying in our lane. I try *really* hard to stay in my lane. I’m a hobbyist with little to no time studying the underlying machinations of what makes forecasting a thing.

However, this just stunned me today. This guy is supposed to be a degreed professional:

View attachment 129130

View attachment 129131
I read that to mean he doesn't forecast beyond day 5. Not a bad plan, really.
 
If you’re outside of traditional CAD areas this morning I’m sorry. I haven’t been on for a couple of days and Rain Cold is very pessimistic and a few posters are cliff diving. (Think he’s leading the pac). Some guy is making a locusts defense not realizing saying something and saying something with data/analysis is big on this forum. Most on here are in school/metvets/vethobbyists.
 
I’m outside 24-7 in the summer. I have the highest T here in the summer across this Board
Not to name any names... But usually people with high T don't say "help me" after participating in certain activities. I can't remember who that is though. But I remember seeing it....
 
Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.
Yep looking at a 24 hour window of severe cold and maybe snow mid late January then we can accurately say without a doubt the entire month of February and everyday outside of that 24 hour period in January we’re going to SER and have no opportunity for snow. We will have to wait until April for any more snow ice chances that is an irrefutable fact and I can guarantee what our high and lows will be for the next 72 days (hint they are all above freezing)! Winter is over but don’t worry we have 24 hours sometime in late January that will be the time we look to score! Other than that it’s summer now.
 
Yep looking at a 24 hour window of severe cold and maybe snow mid late January then we can accurately say without a doubt the entire month of February and everyday outside of that 24 hour period in January we’re going to SER and have no opportunity for snow. We will have to wait until April for any more snow ice chances that is an irrefutable fact and I can guarantee what our high and lows will be for the next 72 days (hint they are all above freezing)! Winter is over but don’t worry we have 24 hours sometime in late January that will be the time we look to score! Other than that it’s summer now.
That actually sounds about right. I know you're trying to be sarcastic, but you aren't really that far off from reality.
 
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