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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

FallsLake said:
Well, here's some more long-range fantasy stuff. The CFS would be huge for the second half of January. Of course, I don't believe it. But you would figure we would be due a pattern reversal about this time.

Proceed to the end (starting at day 16):

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com

Here's day 18 (first of 3 to 4 events):
View attachment 129091
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Would be great if someone studied why the models show these fantasy storms that never come to happen past day 7.
 
JHS said:
Looks like this winter will be a combo of 1989-90 and 2011-12. May not have another credible winter precip threat outside of NW flow snow in the mountains until 2024. SW VA still has a chance at a 6+ event, but things will have to line up just right for it.
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?
 
This is a really good mountain snow pattern if you switch the Sierra Nevadas with the Appalachians. Ski resorts are going to have a historically short season if we don’t pull a rabbit out of the hat by mid month because February blowtorch is looking likely
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we don’t score mid-late month, I wouldn’t be shocked if we don’t get another opportunity until March.
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It feels like March now. A very small opportunity late January and then on to next year for me. March almost never delivers any winter weather here. Once we get past late January, I'm going full garden mode.
 
I hate it but I tend to agree with you guys, this just isn't feeling like a good year for snow. I mean things can change and we only need one or two well timed systems but something seems off this year. I hate many of us couldn't score with the recent cold as it might be the best chance we'll have. Even most of the mountains have been struggling so far. I wonder how many years AVL gets to New Years without even a trace.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I hate it but I tend to agree with you guys, this just isn't feeling like a good year for snow. I mean things can change and we only need one or two well timed systems but something seems off this year. I hate many of us couldn't score with the recent cold as it might be the best chance we'll have. Even most of the mountains have been struggling so far. I wonder how many years AVL gets to New Years without even a trace.
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Jimmy will always find the snow. May not be at my house but I’ll find it.
 
I don’t have time to go way back through the threads, but this time last January what was everyone talking about pattern wise in here? Was it looking good at this point? We’re we already seeing signals of the January 16th storm?
 
Webberweather53 said:
You know times are getting desperate when weenies have to talk about a SSWE to save their winter 2 months from now
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Don’t think things are desperate at all right now. MJO not going towards warm phases. Just went through a below average December didn’t end up scoring but a solid below normal month. Still have all of January February and march to score snow. If we haven’t had a snow event by the end of February. Yeah we’re be getting desperate for a march miracle but I don’t believe that’ll happen. At least for NC folks we always find a way to win at some point
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t think things are desperate at all right now. MJO not going towards warm phases. Just went through a below average December didn’t end up scoring but a solid below normal month. Still have all of January February and march to score snow. If we haven’t had a snow event by the end of February. Yeah we’re be getting desperate for a march miracle but I don’t believe that’ll happen. At least for NC folks we always find a way to win at some point
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No cold anywhere in sight with this pattern, maybe a brief window mid-late January, but I doubt we’ll have any real estate in February to work with given what’s coming on the horizon.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No cold anywhere in sight with this pattern, maybe a brief window mid-late January, but I doubt we’ll have any real estate in February to work with given what’s coming on the horizon.
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Maybe so but we’re still a month away from that aspect some of our best snows come at the end of February into march. We’re 300+ hours away from the mid to late January pattern. Many things can change and we have the potential to get colder air given time. And even in a warm February pattern we can still find ways to score in between warm periods. All I’m saying is hope is far from lost and to throw in the towel on January 1st ..just not something I’m going to do And wouldn’t find it logical to do that when many factors can change over the next several weeks to give more cold air or just a general better pattern than what we’re seeing right now
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Maybe so but we’re still a month away from that aspect some of our best snows come at the end of February into march. We’re 300+ hours away from the mid to late January pattern. Many things can change and we have the potential to get colder air given time. And even in a warm February pattern we can still find ways to score in between warm periods. All I’m saying is hope is far from lost and to throw in the towel on January 1st ..just not something I’m going to do And wouldn’t find it logical to do that when many factors can change over the next several weeks to give more cold air or just a general better pattern than what we’re seeing right now
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The air isn’t even remotely cold enough the next 1.5-2 weeks or so, not when there’s a big GOA trough flooding the entire continent with mild pacific air. It might be 300 hours out, but these planetary scale features that evolve more slowly don’t really change that much this far out and I don’t see us getting a lot more cold air than forecast prior to mid-month, or enough needed to get snow. Even the NE US is gonna be struggling to find enough cold air, imagine how it’ll be down here.

Most of those really big late feb-early March snows come during El Niño or +ENSO lean winters. La Nina februarys rarely produce big snows and I wouldn’t be holding out any hope for one anytime soon because the deck is stacked against us, more than it often would be in this situation. We’re already behind the 8 ball as it is in Feb during a Nina, but we’re going to constructively interfere with that in all likelihood for much of Feb. Meh.
 
JHS said:
Looks like this winter will be a combo of 1989-90 and 2011-12. May not have another credible winter precip threat outside of NW flow snow in the mountains until 2024. SW VA still has a chance at a 6+ event, but things will have to line up just right for it.
Click to expand...
Guaranteed snow now
 
Webberweather53 said:
The air isn’t even remotely cold enough the next 1.5-2 weeks or so, not when there’s a big GOA trough flooding the entire continent with mild pacific air. It might be 300 hours out, but these planetary scale features that evolve more slowly don’t really change that much this far out and I don’t see us getting a lot more cold air than forecast prior to mid-month, or enough needed to get snow. Even the NE US is gonna be struggling to find enough cold air, imagine how it’ll be down here.

Most of those really big late feb-early March snows come during El Niño or +ENSO lean winters. La Nina februarys rarely produce big snows and I wouldn’t be holding out any hope for one anytime soon because the deck is stacked against us, more than it often would be in this situation. We’re already behind the 8 ball as it is in Feb during a Nina, but we’re going to constructively interfere with that in all likelihood for much of Feb. Meh.
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I guess the difference is how u constitute a short period of favorable time. I think realistically 2+ weeks of favorable pattern is possible January 15th on through early February. That’s decent for me. For before February and march.
 
Just by reading of the last couple of days, it’s either gonna stay warm or get really cold getting close to the end of January.???
 
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