• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Snowlover87 said:
I really dont know how Atlanta recorded measurable snowfall. I'm pretty sure most of the Atlanta area did not see any snow on the ground this winter.
Click to expand...
Atlanta Hartsfield measured more snow than GSP, CLT, GSO and RDU combined! So how much did they get you ask? A whopping 0.1 on 12-26. All you can do is laugh.

While certainly not a snowstorm and most areas probably received nothing the official reporting station has had measurable snow this winter.
 
The 12z run of the GFS is a rehash of how our winter has gone.

So we have this at day 13. I think it looks good. Lots of potential. The high is not in the right position but there's already a cold airmass in place with lots of dew points in the single digits.
1677949835414.png

And then this at day 14. Cut city. La nina for the win again.
1677950271308.png

This is way out and there will be lots of changes, but I do hate this winter.
 







Brian Brettschneider

@Climatologist49
·
2h

Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???


Image












Brian Brettschneider

@Climatologist49
·
1h

Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
 
FallsLake said:
The 12z run of the GFS is a rehash of how our winter has gone.

So we have this at day 13. I think it looks good. Lots of potential. The high is not in the right position but there's already a cold airmass in place with lots of dew points in the single digits.
View attachment 133971

And then this at day 14. Cut city. La nina for the win again.
View attachment 133972

This is way out and there will be lots of changes, but I do hate this winter.
Click to expand...
Seasonal trends are tough to beat sometimes. Scenario after scenario has gone this way all year. Count me as skeptical we see it change now.

On the flip side the west coast has had an EPIC winter.

 
BIG FROSTY said:


Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
2h

Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???
Image







Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
1h

Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
Click to expand...
Considering to do that we’d have to blow through the all-time record low temperature for March by a few degrees, I’m going to have to go with no. Up in the Arctic it’s different since February is usually their coldest month and they have a negative energy balance from the sun much longer than we do further south.
 
Shaggy said:
Seasonal trends are tough to beat sometimes. Scenario after scenario has gone this way all year. Count me as skeptical we see it change now.

On the flip side the west coast has had an EPIC winter.

Click to expand...

I guess I’m happy for them since their summer droughts and fires are so severe.
 
superjames1992 said:
Considering to do that we’d have to blow through the all-time record low temperature for March by a few degrees, I’m going to have to go with no. Up in the Arctic it’s different since February is usually their coldest month and they have a negative energy balance from the sun much longer than we do further south.
Click to expand...

Going to be hard. Maybe upper south has a shot. Low 30’s isn’t going to get it done for us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BIG FROSTY said:


Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
2h

Bettles, Alaska, dropped to -44F this morning, only 1F shy of the coldest temperature of the winter. This map shows how often the coldest day of the winter occurs in March. Will parts of the southeast Lower 48 have their coldest day of the winter in about a week???
Image
Click to expand...

BIG FROSTY said:

Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
·
1h

Update: Bettles dropped to -45F. That means the coldest temperature of the season occurred in March (tie with February). Very impressive.
Click to expand...
Can’t wait to see that cold dumped into Southern California.
 
I still think we will have a pretty good cold period coming up. I just checked the mjo forecasts and they still look great. High Amp face 8 in a few days possibly going over to phase 1. I know seasonal persistence and this winter has been an F but its hard to believe the mjo would get trumped when its this amped in the cold phases.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It’s funny how a few days ago when the GFS was predicting a more subdued cold, everyone said it was a terrible model. Maybe it had a point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yes, but it will be nice to get some normal temps for a week or so, maybe even slightly below normal for a day or two.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It’s funny how a few days ago when the GFS was predicting a more subdued cold, everyone said it was a terrible model. Maybe it had a point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It isn't good long range. None of them are. But watching models for years now I've learned that if one model doesn't agree with a cold and snowy pattern, regardless of which model it is its usually the one right. Even if they all agree it's no guarantee in the SE. We are stuck in a rut and have been for years it seems where regardless of the indices the SE can't get sustained below average temps and reaching just average snowfall is a challenge. Forget about well above average snowfall.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It isn't good long range. None of them are. But watching models for years now I've learned that if one model doesn't agree with a cold and snowy pattern, regardless of which model it is its usually the one right. Even if they all agree it's no guarantee in the SE. We are stuck in a rut and have been for years it seems where regardless of the indices the SE can't get sustained below average temps and reaching just average snowfall is a challenge. Forget about well above average snowfall.
Click to expand...

I hear you. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the model predicting warmth has the hot hand but it’s got to at least give you pause that there may be alternate interpretations of the data that may have some merit. I think it’s easy to say the GFS is a terrible model because you don’t like what it’s spitting out. The Canadian was big time cold and it has backed off. The EPS as well. Now the models may be delaying the cold - which ultimately leads to warming temps the more we get later into the month.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
J.C. said:
They have been notorious for lying since the first time I went there in 1995. They will also stay open well beyond it being safe to do so.
Click to expand...
It was on edge there last weekend, I don’t know how they’re still open considering it’s been so warm and wet all week. Granted, they basically have two runs to open and they look narrow and slushy. I’m willing to ski in bad conditions, but I’m not sure I’d even steep to these lows.
 
Even out here I've gone from talk of snow to highs maybe barely low 50s

Oh well at least it's going to rain. We still need it. We haven't been as lucky as east of here
 
Brent said:
Even out here I've gone from talk of snow to highs maybe barely low 50s

Oh well at least it's going to rain. We still need it. We haven't been as lucky as east of here
Click to expand...

We know the PNA is going positive and the NAO neutral so the torch is over and we head to normal and a bit below normal. It’ll feel cold comparatively for a lot of us. Remains to be see what the impact of a high amplitude phase 8 will be. The previous predilection for cold and potentially snowy may need to be refined.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
We know the PNA is going positive and the NAO neutral so the torch is over and we head to normal and a bit below normal. It’ll feel cold comparatively for a lot of us. Remains to be see what the impact of a high amplitude phase 8 will be. The previous predilection for cold and potentially snowy may need to be refined.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I mean yeah it's gonna feel cold after this ?IMG_20230305_152518019_HDR.jpg
 
KyloG said:
62" but we had 3 double digit seasons. That stretch will probably never be duplicated again.
Click to expand...
You are probably right. This period checked all the boxes here crippling snow, crippling ice, snow on snow, snow on frozen ground that accumulated from the first flake. I wish young weenie SD had known the next 2 decades would be dookie so he would have appreciated it more
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top