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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Fountainguy97 said:
I'm a little concerned about our la nina. Recent trends have really strengthened it into winter. If we end up with a strong Nina I wont be surprised to see the Southeast struggle with warmth and storm track. We need a muted Nina that doesn't dominate but unfortunately there is a lot of data that is suggesting we may end up with a very strong ENSO this winter.

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Indeed. Also, there is the near constant very warm W Pac/MC, which itself favors longer periods of the warmer MJO phases. That combined with a moderate+ Niña stacks the deck heavily for an AN SE winter vs even the most recently updated (warmer) 30 year norms. Snowlovers will hopefully get lucky and still get a good snowstorm.
 
Prestige Worldwide said:
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Thanks for posting. Cohen is quite knowledgeable and good to follow for his rather unique way of looking well ahead. Therefore, he's quite interesting to read. But, here are some things I think should be kept in mind:

1. How often over the last 5+ years has Cohen had an exciting sounding post that never ended up correlating to a cold pattern in the SE US? His primary forecasting interest is where he lives, the Boston area, where it is way easier to get cold and snow.

2. And even in the NE US, I wonder how he's done. After following it very closely for a number of years, I have now determined that his October Siberian snow theories have little to no correlation to the E US winters and even the winter AO.

3. Even if this has an impact on November, it could end up too early to matter for most of the winter. I do hope that it least it does lead to a cooler November and perhaps December though. I do currently have December as the coldest of the winter vs normals.
 
GaWx said:
Nobody is “writing off” winter. Acknowledging the likelihood of a warmer than normal SE winter and writing off winter are not the same thing. Even I have repeatedly said to still expect a few cold periods even if the winter is mild as they’re almost guaranteed every year. Also, I didn’t say that a mild winter was a certainty. Nobody could ever say that. In addition, a good number here have stated they only really care about getting snow. For that reason, these same folks have many times said dry cold is “wasted cold” and that they’d rather it be mild than dry cold. Go back and look at the past winter threads. The fact is that much of the cold in most of the nonmountainous SE comes with no snow….even up in a place like Raleigh.

Do you and others here enjoy dry cold? I know some do (I actually do but then again cold down here is fairly infrequent), but there have been a lot of complaints here in recent years about dry cold and that they’d rather it be mild if there’s no snow. For those people, the best bet would be a mild winter with a couple of snows thrown in between the mainly mild periods. With the threat of very high heating costs this winter due to much higher prices already and shortages overseas, that would be the best of both worlds this winter. Snow lovers get their snow and dry cold haters would be more content along with not too high energy bills.
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If you scroll up a few posts from mine you can see people already talking about starting the thread for next winter. So yeah some people are already at that point. Personally from what I am seeing the easiest forecast is AN Temps in the SE, it basically happens every year recently and this year looks no different. I am not a believer that any cold is wasted cold, we get so much AN that BN is welcomed at anytime and necessary for regulation of insects, mold, and AC spending.
My point in posting is because people can easily come here to read all the red maps and negative statements by others and lose track of the big picture. There will be winter WX and Cold Temps. It may not be In my back yard or yours but somewhere in the SE.
 
Thor said:
If you scroll up a few posts from mine you can see people already talking about starting the thread for next winter. So yeah some people are already at that point. Personally from what I am seeing the easiest forecast is AN Temps in the SE, it basically happens every year recently and this year looks no different. I am not a believer that any cold is wasted cold, we get so much AN that BN is welcomed at anytime and necessary for regulation of insects, mold, and AC spending.
My point in posting is because people can easily come here to read all the red maps and negative statements by others and lose track of the big picture. There will be winter WX and Cold Temps. It may not be In my back yard or yours but somewhere in the SE.
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OK, I see why you said that now.

No matter what, temperatures will with practically 100% certainty trend significantly colder over the next 90 days. That's why I love this time of year so much. Bugs will disappear. Dewpoints will trend downward. And I 100% agree with you that no cold is wasted cold. Some others here disagree but I don't care. The more the better. And cold down here is 99+% without snow. I don't care. We have enough heat and humidity down here as it is. Other prefer warmth, humidity and bugs year-round. That's fine. To each their own. Live and let live.
 
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GaWx said:
OK, I see why you said that now.

No matter what, temperatures will with practically 100% certainty trend significantly colder over the next 90 days. That's why I love this time of year so much. Bugs will disappear. Dewpoints will trend downward. And I 100% agree with you that no cold is wasted cold. Some others here disagree but I don't care. The more the better. And cold down here is 99+% without snow. I don't care. We have enough heat and humidity down here as it is. Other prefer warmth, humidity and bugs year-round. That's fine. To each their own. Live and let live.
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Freakin' awesome summary, Larry ... every word of it ... If there were some way to send you and your brother a T-Bone steak, or some shrimp, or whatever you eat, I would ... so well said and certainly worth a treat of thanks!
 
GaWx said:
Nobody is “writing off” winter. Acknowledging the likelihood of a warmer than normal SE winter and writing off winter are not the same thing. Even I have repeatedly said to still expect a few cold periods even if the winter is mild as they’re almost guaranteed every year. Also, I didn’t say that a mild winter was a certainty. Nobody could ever say that. In addition, a good number here have stated they only really care about getting snow. For that reason, these same folks have many times said dry cold is “wasted cold” and that they’d rather it be mild than dry cold. Go back and look at the past winter threads. The fact is that much of the cold in most of the nonmountainous SE comes with no snow….even up in a place like Raleigh.

Do you and others here enjoy dry cold? I know some do (I actually do but then again cold down here is fairly infrequent), but there have been a lot of complaints here in recent years about dry cold and that they’d rather it be mild if there’s no snow. For those people, the best bet would be a mild winter with a couple of snows thrown in between the mainly mild periods. With the threat of very high heating costs this winter due to much higher prices already and shortages overseas, that would be the best of both worlds this winter. Snow lovers get their snow and dry cold haters would be more content along with not too high energy bills.
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I want to build a freaking fire in my fireplaces without turning on the air conditioner.
 
GaWx said:
“Disaster” sounds overly dramatic to describe a mild winter, which is likely to occur and won’t hurt anyone. If anything, it would help the homeless as well as help those already struggling financially from the potential of very high heating costs. Energy prices are already way up vs recent years, largely due to shortages in Europe and Asia. The last thing the US as a whole needs now is a widespread cold winter in the E US to cause them to skyrocket further. If we’re talking “disaster”, a cold winter there would be closer to causing that from an economic standpoint. Embrace the “warmth” like an increasing number here already do. Even with a mild winter, temperatures will still be cooling off 20-25+ degrees from where they are now and there will be a few cold snaps.

All indications I’ve studied, including today, strongly suggest a mild winter for the SE US. Even though it isn’t what I prefer, I will happily embrace the mild instead of fighting the nearly inevitable and whining about it. Enjoy the weather as it is the only weather you’ve got.
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I agree with most of the post. However, let's not forget the NC ski industry that depends on a cold winter for their economic stability. I am sure they would call a warm winter a "disaster" for them. It's all about perspective.
 
Pretty big 30-45 day period coming up with regards to the first half of winter. How do the 10 & 500mb patterns evolve? A lot of the analogs I have show the pac ridge getting more amped but lots of difference on where it is they also have the SPV coming back to NOAM in November after this push in the 2nd half of October.
 
We're looking at a pretty solid -NAO for October as a whole. I was hoping that that positively correlated to some extent to a -NAO in winter. I already recalled that a summer -NAO doesn't. But when I just took a look at it, it actually showed a partial negative correlation to a -NAO, especially during La Nina. This tells me a solidly -NAO October during La Nina tends to favor an average of neutral to +NAO in the subsequent winter. Of course, even if it were to be a +NAO, that doesn't mean there still wouldn't be some short periods of -NAO due to the typical variations. At this point with La Nina and as one who doesn't want a mild winter, I'd take an average of near neutral NAO this winter as a win.
 
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges
 
Brick Tamland said:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges
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Well last year worked pretty well here ?
 
Brent said:
Well last year worked pretty well here ?
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It definitely helps climowise to not be in the SE, home of the SER, during La Nina. The outlook is clearly better for your area vs the SE US again this winter vs normals. Mack should also do much better vs his norms. And if Dan is in the Midwest, he may do ok.

Edit: Ooops, I left off that Montana guy. He should be in great shape! And the AR golfing guy may do ok as he may be far enough NW.

"Better", "great" equals cold and/or wintry precip just to be clear as they mean different things for different people.
 
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GaWx said:
It definitely helps climowise to not be in the SE, home of the SER, during La Nina. The outlook is clearly better for your area again this winter vs normals.
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We were lucky to have released the -NAO last year.. and were spared from the SER until of course that one major arctic outbreak wanted to roll through and the SER decided to flex .. but all we can hope for is for early good start to satisfy us or lots of blocking particularly with a -NAO to give us an opportunity for snow this winter (yes there are other factors but the only way I see us combating a SER flex is with a -NAO it worked quite well last year whenever it appeared)
 
GaWx said:
It definitely helps climowise to not be in the SE, home of the SER, during La Nina. The outlook is clearly better for your area vs the SE US again this winter vs normals. Mack should also do much better vs his norms. And if Dan is in the Midwest, he may do ok.
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Larry,
With the price of energy and the projections, let's just hope for some nice 4 months of walkin' weather ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
With the price of energy and the projections, let's just hope for some nice 4 months of walkin' weather ... ;)
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If we happen to get the unexpected BN winter way down in the SE, I won't cry and will embrace the cold as usual. But the US may cry due to very high energy bills. There's much more riding on this winter than normal from an economic standpoint.
 
GaWx said:
So, just to understand you, do you want a mainly mild winter but snow during the cold periods? I know you're one of the ones who has complained many times about dry cold.
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Yep, exactly, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat just because there’s was one week of a blockbuster pattern in early December then above normal mostly the rest of winter
 
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