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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Lickwx said:
Since my last post about it being warm got deleted here you go. Lovely. 2 things I love the most in winter. warm and dry! 31-32 baby!


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IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Seasonal Climate Forecasts

iri.columbia.edu iri.columbia.edu
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Looks realistic and quite doable.

My 8 analogs (2nd year Nina) give me this:

DJFtemps2ndYearNina.png

SE warmth lovers like you and @Myfrotho704_ would obviously be happy with the overall mild winter. I'm expecting overall mildness, but expect one near normal month in the mix. Also, those who like a severe cold shot in the mix would like 1971-2, 1984-5, 1999-2000 (in NC), and 2017-8 while those who like a major winter storm would like 1999-2000, 2008-9, and 2017-8 (even I got a major winter storm Jan of 2018 along with the coldest week here in decades). And all winters have at least several cold periods, regardless. So, something for all in the SE to hope for. And I'll be happy no matter the wx because it will at least 25 colder than this summer!

Here's precip:
DJFprecip2ndYearNina.png
 
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Agree with GAWX. Good call. More Mildness than Cold for sure. We should squeak out a threat or two. Probably get one decent 5-7 day Cold/BN outbreak. Usually La nina you get roller coastered with temps, favoring normal to slightly AN the majority of the time. Catch alot of great Golf weather, minus the wind. 50-55 with full sun is perfect. No bugs ,sweat.

Its always about the Pacific for the SE. what happens in the NE Pac, pattern that sets up shop there, has the biggest influence on our wx pattern down here. Root for a locked in +PNA first and foremost.
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree with GAWX. Good call. More Mildness than Cold for sure. We should squeak out a threat or two. Probably get one decent 5-7 day Cold/BN outbreak. Usually La nina you get roller coastered with temps, favoring normal to slightly AN the majority of the time. Catch alot of great Golf weather, minus the wind. 50-55 with full sun is perfect. No bugs ,sweat.

Its always about the Pacific for the SE. what happens in the NE Pac, pattern that sets up shop there, has the biggest influence on our wx pattern down here. Root for a locked in +PNA first and foremost.
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We had amazing blocking last year over Greenland. The Pacific just didn't want to help out.
 
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
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That’s every year buddy, there has not been 1 single winter that was not hyped as going to be a cold one .
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
People are really hyping up this winter in videos I've been looking at recently .. I so doubt that since the past three years were suppose to be crazy too.. but I guess the optimism is hopefully some believe it could be an early start and a lot of talk about models agreeing on displacement in the Arctic in December
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200.gif
 
Fountainguy97 said:
You can see we follow a pretty classic winter pattern for the Eastern US. Mixed signal December but a cold January followed by cold Central US for February. These years all feature at least one -nao month in winter and most of them have more than that. So that similarity to last year should hold true this winter.

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No surprise our precipitation follows the standard La Nina pattern here.

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With September in the books here are my analogs compared to sep 2021. Abt as close
As you can get for a match.
FA84FB3E-D9F1-476C-987C-AEE232415414.pngD22383F6-62B9-4F9C-B774-08A59806A3A8.png8B6BDC03-D5A0-47D9-9B19-A0D3133053C4.pngAFB807BC-B2DB-4F44-8269-93FA78A64FE5.png

October becomes very flippy in my analogs. Basically dead even split between warm/cool SE. October is starting warm nationally. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
With September in the books here are my analogs compared to sep 2021. Abt as close
As you can get for a match.
View attachment 91912View attachment 91913View attachment 91915View attachment 91914

October becomes very flippy in my analogs. Basically dead even split between warm/cool SE. October is starting warm nationally. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
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Not too shabby ... taking your years and running them for the same winters as a composite, you get this ...


cd98.180.247.146.280.13.28.21.prcp.png

Though if you knock Nov out of the mix, it is a little less exciting (IMBY by a 1/2 degree F ... LOL ...) ...

cd98.180.247.146.280.13.37.58.prcp.png
 
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pcbjr said:
Not too shabby ... taking your years and running them for the same winters as a composite, you get this ...


View attachment 92376

Though if you knock Nov out of the mix, it is a little less exciting (IMBY by a 1/2 degree F ... LOL ...) ...

View attachment 92380
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Yeah and this might be a problem if it doesn’t change soon.
e6d114f04ba6df788dbf0f1c4d7553e0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
Yeah and this might be a problem if it doesn’t change soon.
e6d114f04ba6df788dbf0f1c4d7553e0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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If we can just get all of the oceans all the way yellow and orange, we should be good to start looking at other things again. The Atlantic is almost there. We just have that mess near AK and in the central Pacific to work on.
 
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