• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

Yeah, Ventrice recently tweeted it will get strong lmao. They don’t know. I think it will end up in between them at a moderate on the ONI scale (-1.0 to. -1.4 C in Nino 3.4).

The SST peak often lags the OHC peak (peak cooling in this case). Also, as he said, SOI is moderately negative on average as it still is firmly in La Niña territory.

I reread the tweet and he (Weston) didn’t actually predict a weak Niña. I can’t tell what he’s predicting. Maybe moderate. But Ventrice clearly recently predicted strong.
 
AKA expect a blistering arctic outbreak across the East US.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a period of-pna/ser or a meh -pna/-nao across the US many ninas have done so after cold in November. Biggest key to me is can we start rebuilding the pacific around Christmas.
 
SD, wouldn't we want a aleutian ridge that is poleward instead of flat? They usually develop in December I think
 
Larry Cosgrove has been forecasting weather as long as I been living, but dont he know a +epo isnt good for cold weather at all? A -nao/ao keeps us from really blowtorchig I suppose. Sufficet to say, we got a long way to go before we get close to a favorable winter pattern ?
 
SD, wouldn't we want a aleutian ridge that is poleward instead of flat? They usually develop in December I think
For SE US cold lovers, the opposite (an Aleutian trough) is best for +PNA prospects. Aleutian ridge usually means -PNA. Of course, you're not really in the SE.
 
Last edited:
Not all the times but usually the -wpo is more prevalent in laniñas to deliver cold into Canada. Anthony Masiello always said watch for the aleutian ridge to go poleward and if it did, that was good.
 
Back
Top