These days I hope for the Niña. I’ll always take my chances with cold air in place and some clipper/phasers diving down out of Dubuque. Moisture rich Niño’s just don’t do it around here any more.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
Looks like the La Nina could be weaker than expected.
tennessee storm
Member
We heard it both sides now . Don’t know what to believe.
Yeah, Ventrice recently tweeted it will get strong lmao. They don’t know. I think it will end up in between them at a moderate on the ONI scale (-1.0 to. -1.4 C in Nino 3.4).
The SST peak often lags the OHC peak (peak cooling in this case). Also, as he said, SOI is moderately negative on average as it still is firmly in La Niña territory.
I reread the tweet and he (Weston) didn’t actually predict a weak Niña. I can’t tell what he’s predicting. Maybe moderate. But Ventrice clearly recently predicted strong.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a period of-pna/ser or a meh -pna/-nao across the US many ninas have done so after cold in November. Biggest key to me is can we start rebuilding the pacific around Christmas.
tennessee storm
Member
Probably going be blistering alright … lol pacific just not helping matters. Hate to beat dead horse
cd2play
Member
Is the Pacific ever going to cooperate again?
Mr. Golf
Member
SD, wouldn't we want a aleutian ridge that is poleward instead of flat? They usually develop in December I think
You, webb, Brent, mack would love it as you go farther east that's not good unless it's a monster.
Watch the Scandinavia-->urals-->siberia-->west pac pattern over the coming days/weeks.
Mr. Golf
Member
Larry Cosgrove has been forecasting weather as long as I been living, but dont he know a +epo isnt good for cold weather at all? A -nao/ao keeps us from really blowtorchig I suppose. Sufficet to say, we got a long way to go before we get close to a favorable winter pattern ?
iGRXY
Member
If we keep a -NAO, just expect to keep temps around 50 and a bunch of upper 30 and lower 40 degree cold rain CADs for the major of winter. AKA, last year.
For SE US cold lovers, the opposite (an Aleutian trough) is best for +PNA prospects. Aleutian ridge usually means -PNA. Of course, you're not really in the SE.
Last edited:
We also need the WPO to go negative to allow that EPO to try and push negative as well.
Mr. Golf
Member
Not all the times but usually the -wpo is more prevalent in laniñas to deliver cold into Canada. Anthony Masiello always said watch for the aleutian ridge to go poleward and if it did, that was good.
WRAL predicts 2-5" of snow this winter for RDU.
More than I thought they would have
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
