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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Y'all, serious question. Take a look at this map. I realize that it's the GFS and that it's at hr 384, but I can't recall seeing this much cold across this much of the NH. Am I having memory issues, or does this look unusual?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Below normal Decembers are generally less frequent than below normal Februarys (obviously) in NINO winters, the ones that are BN in December often (but not always) produce a big dog east of the mtns in NC in Dec.
1896-97, 1904-05, 1905-06, 1930-31, 1958-59, 1963-64, 1969-70, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, & 2009-10 come to mind as good examples.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just to check, do you or anyone else know of any winters with this setup that had the winter turn up AN? I also wonder how much "most" means.
I posted on this a while back, not a big sample size. But these are the BN weak ninos over past 40 years. Nov patterns compared to this Nov.
Still expecting AN winter though
I would much rather have this setup going into the winter season. Having the hi5 maps looking like this and working for a active storm track later. The ULL in the SW is having an impact on our STJ stream. With out this we should become more stormy.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Eric
Member
The December 2, 1896 snowstorm came oh so close to occurring in November.
What a time to be alive
Know nothing about the jamstec, but our Japanese friends are predicting a sweet winter for the Eastern US: 
Should be a banner winter for the Himalayas too...
That would be incredible. But unfortunately, it looks just like the JAMSTEC maps for last winter such as this one that actually had much of the SE even colder (3-4 F colder than normal):
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Slowly but surely, as tropical forcing returns to the Indian Ocean & Eastern Hemisphere in general, the SE US ridge will attempt to make a return to the larger-scale pattern.
The long range EPS is trending in that direction. The only thing that's saving us from disaster is the blocking high over the Baffin Bay, eventually due to diffusive, radiative, & dissipative processes, it will run its course.
The long range EPS is trending in that direction. The only thing that's saving us from disaster is the blocking high over the Baffin Bay, eventually due to diffusive, radiative, & dissipative processes, it will run its course.
Yeah, I would definitely expect to warm up at some point. At least we are seeing the propensity for blocking. Looking out 10 days, you can still see that signal, which is encouraging. Hopefully, the Pacific will not turn hostile and remain that way this year.
Golf7575
Member
Rain, i agree. That is why i asked what model is handling the mjo correctly moving forward. Especially the site i previously mentioned that dacula has. Ultimately December will be warm regardless of what we want lol, but i just want one decent pattern for cold and winter weather.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Looks like the EPS wants to put us at the baroclinic zone which potentially means severe weather.
Hopes it’s during the time of cold air in place.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
"Larry Cosgrove: Indian summer is no longer going to happen this month in east. Be very wary of accepting any extensive warming trends across the lower 48 states in December. "
Lol, this is the kiss of death! Torch inbound!
Lol, this is the kiss of death! Torch inbound!
NWMSGuy
Member
Wonder what his thinking is behind that statement.
NoSnowATL
Member