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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Ollie Williams said:
I'm optimistic but I'm pessimistic about being optimistic this far out.
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Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as well
 
SD said:
Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as well
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Or it could be normal with some snow in Jan and Feb.


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SD said:
If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
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Ignoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.

And yea the GEFS is getting even colder in the longer term...
B822C0CB-801D-40C4-94F5-EC8279D423DB.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ignoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.

And yea the GEFS is getting even colder in the longer term...
View attachment 25949
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I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
 
SD said:
I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
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We know that practically all winters down here in the southeast feature warm spells mixed in with cold at times, but this sure has started off in the right direction. Now, here we are "clock-watching" to see when this pattern will end, without even enjoying the rarity of what we are witnessing at the present time. Back to back nights with lows in the teens in November... that will be a first for me here. This winter might just take everyone by surprise. Could we be staring down the barrel of an epic winter? Possibly, but we are not even in the 1st quarter of the ballgame yet. I have a feeling that this is going to be good.
 
I'm really getting worried about winter.... I've burnt a pile of good wood this week already and its only November.

Last year I didn't really have a feeling of a cold winter yet I cut a bunch of wood. This year I've had an itchy feeling it would be cold but I didn't cut much wood.

Faith without works is dead, and after that epic fail I'm in catch up mode.
 
SD said:
I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
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If last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.
 
Chattownsnow said:
If last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.
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I wish i could completely erase last year from my memory. Not even cuss words do that winter justice
 
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Boy December is going to be interesting.


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Rain Cold said:
Trough is too deep. Those pretty blue colors will be at least 2 states away from us by game time.
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I thought that’s what you meant. But this time last month we were breaking record high temps so anything is possible. Just keep an open mind. Lol.


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