This pattern actually favors PV intensification, the planetary-scale wave is actually located over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia, we'd need to complete flip the -EPO/WPO to generate the pattern that forces displacement of the PV.
Webber, if the seasonal models are correct with a +nao, we would want to see the -epo/wpo for us to get cold. Basically a more favorable Pacific.
The EPO is something I really don't understand. I know we want it negative, but that's about it. I've seen years where we get (forecasted) positive NAO & AO along with a negative PNA (which I understand); but the EPO comes in negative and we end up with colder weather. Rain Cold (CR) remembers that year.
You want the epo/wpo both negative for colder weather. The pna is positive, which focuses the coldest weather in the east. We usually get glancing blows when its positive. I think the cold pattern lasts, but will focus much further west later.
Well, if he's once even half-way right, a simple "N" winter once would be a coup ...
I wouldn’t bet against the EC. Or to put it another way, I wouldn’t bet on the Americans.
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The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
In all honesty, I never pay attention to them, you’re actually a lot better off looking at analogs (which says a lot).
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Looks like Fab Feb is not happening.*Facepalm*
He must've drank his crazy juice when he saw the GFS and Euro and shoved it into his entire winter forecast.*Facepalm*
What happened to December and January?*Facepalm*
He made 3 DJF, NDJ, FMAWhat happened to December and January?
