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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

He might be talking about the Northeast but I can certainly understand what he’s talking about in the last tweet. ?❄️
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Myfrotho704_ said:
In my opinion these are gonna be the most popular storm tracks this winter, note where that track spirals over the lake due to it bombing out View attachment 25054
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That about sums it up right there, I especially love the ol Charleston transfer. That’s how I get my best 33 and rains. One we haven’t seen in a while is where they ride the jet straight into the west side of the apps. Then reform and maybe even over perform. Gotten some memorable flizzards that way.
 
NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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Bamwx is a private weather company in Indiana where people can join to get opinions about the pattern. They are pretty good. The euro weeklies are just forecasts on patterns from about a month in advance. They are just promoting their company for the most part.
 
NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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Not Larry but...

Week 4 of the weeklies are pretty bad usually, so that’s not surprising..

My thoughts are they just got lucky. Good forecast, but I recall around Oct 11 or shortly thereafter the GFS, GEFS and Euro EPS really got going with a +PNA -NAO scheme with a deep trough centered on the eastern US. I mean, they had monster -NAO big blocks showing up.... you HAD to go cold somewhere in there.

It ended up trending west over time....This tweet showcases it pretty well


They posted the forecast Oct 11 so with the 15 day run it would have been out to Oct 26. Most models did well for the time period (generally speaking — they showed some kind of cold in the east central part of the US) , and the EPS quickly caught up to the weeklies and corrected.

Comparing your forecast to a Week 4 weekly run as verification isn’t the way I’d go, but it looks nice.


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NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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JB has been literally saying the exact same thing about this model for the past week. The same with the CFSv2. He gets into a frenzy when LR models show warmth and verify colder. These people do this every year


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Golf7575 said:
Bamwx is a private weather company in Indiana where people can join to get opinions about the pattern. They are pretty good. The euro weeklies are just forecasts on patterns from about a month in advance. They are just promoting their company for the most part.
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Jon said:
Not Larry but...

Week 4 of the weeklies are pretty bad usually, so that’s not surprising..

My thoughts are they just got lucky. Good forecast, but I recall around Oct 11 or shortly thereafter the GFS, GEFS and Euro EPS really got going with a +PNA -NAO scheme with a deep trough centered on the eastern US. I mean, they had monster -NAO big blocks showing up.... you HAD to go cold somewhere in there.

It ended up trending west over time....This tweet showcases it pretty well


They posted the forecast Oct 11 so with the 15 day run it would have been out to Oct 26. Most models did well for the time period (generally speaking — they showed some kind of cold in the east central part of the US) , and the EPS quickly caught up to the weeklies and corrected.

Comparing your forecast to a Week 4 weekly run as verification isn’t the way I’d go, but it looks nice.


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Click to expand...

Ollie Williams said:
JB has been literally saying the exact same thing about this model for the past week. The same with the CFSv2. He gets into a frenzy when LR models show warmth and verify colder. These people do this every year


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So basically a lot of picking and choosing to make “our products (the other sources)” look legit?
 
NWMSGuy said:
So basically a lot of picking and choosing to make “our products (the other sources)” look legit?
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I think so. They are good, but alot of companies will promote cold and snow to get clients, despite a bad pattern coming. They will find something good and coerce subscribers into believing them. Most private companies do that. Weather is the only profession where a meterologist wont lose their job because they obviously cant control the weather. Mother Nature controls the weather.
 
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More chat on twitter in regards to a minor Polar Vortex event possibly on the horizon. Since there seems to be ways to forecast the possibilities of a SSW is there any way to forecast where the split occurs or even where the cold air is displaced to?
 
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