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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

GaWx

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D. The cold in November and the snow last month helped pull this above an F. Really bad winter as far as snow/cold overall though, I wasnt mad about the rain especially after the flash drought. So the last 3 winters have gone A/B, F, D. We are due?
The SE is due for still another mild winter next winter with SER domination if the very stubborn warm water that is centered in and near Indonesia doesn’t cool off appreciably. If it is still there in 6 months, the odds of still another mild winter become too high to ignore as tropical forcing is a powerful influence. So, for those not wanting another one, start hoping for those waters to cool off soon as that kind of thing in that area typically takes a good bit of time. Even JB realizes this. And I don’t mean modeled cooldowns as the models have shown us they’re not too skillful with this as this screwed up JB. I mean seeing actual cooling real-time.
 

Mr. Golf

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The SE is due for still another mild winter next winter with SER domination if the very stubborn warm water that is centered in and near Indonesia doesn’t cool off appreciably. If it is still there in 6 months, the odds of still another mild winter become too high to ignore as tropical forcing is a powerful influence. So, for those not wanting another one, start hoping for those waters to cool off soon as that kind of thing in that area typically takes a good bit of time. Even JB realizes this. And I don’t mean modeled cooldowns as the models have shown us they’re not too skillful with this as this screwed up JB. I mean seeing actual cooling real-time.
Larry, I guess it was the main thing that led to winter being warm, but it was warm nationwide also. I know we live in the south, but not many want warm winters.
 

GaWx

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Larry, I guess it was the main thing that led to winter being warm, but it was warm nationwide also. I know we live in the south, but not many want warm winters.
That it wasn’t just the E US that was warm was likely largely due to the strong +AO. Also, that just made it even warmer in the SE. But regardless, the warm W Pacific waters need to cool for a reasonable shot at not getting still another mild winter. Otherwise, look for still another winter with domination by MJO phases 4-6 and SER domination. GW doesn’t help either.

Some here have stated they actually prefer snow but with mild winters.
 

Mr. Golf

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That it wasn’t just the E US that was warm was likely largely due to the strong +AO. Also, that just made it even warmer in the SE. But regardless, the warm W Pacific waters need to cool for a reasonable shot at not getting still another mild winter. Otherwise, look for still another winter with domination by MJO phases 4-6 and SER domination. GW doesn’t help either.
I know u mentioned Indonesia, but what about around 180 degrees west?
 

GaWx

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Another mild winter averaged out with SE ridge domination is likely. The trend is your friend. The warm ocean in combo with GW help make this likely to verify correctly. Regardless, I predict it will still be way more comfortable and therefore way more enjoyable than the summer. I expect there will still be a few short periods of intense cold as is almost always the case, which will make things interesting on occasion.

I also predict with even higher confidence that JB (and others) will predict cold and that that forecast will fail miserably.

I predict KATL will end up around 2-4F warmer than the 30 year normal or near 47-49 for DJF. There may be one major ZR or sleet threat if ENSO cools to cold neutral. There will be no major snows though they’ll be teased as usual with a threat or two. In addition to any possible sleet, I predict 0.4” of snow. So, it will be much snowier than last winter’s shutout but still well below the long term average near 2”. The northside will average near 1” of snow.
Bump
 

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Shane, why did you go with F for last winter? Didn't you get rocked the beginning of December 2018? We got hit here also in Arkansas. Last winter was way better than this winter
I got .75 of slop while 25 miles away got 6+. If there was a grade below F that's what it would get and that was the only event of the year
 
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Forecast: C-ish. Got the general anomaly areas right but got the magnitudes wrong. Was counting on an -EPO, which we didn't get.

Winter grade: F+ for 2.5" of snow. Everything else sucked.

View attachment 36958

View attachment 36959
When Alaska looks like that, you know you never even had a chance for a sustained EC winter pattern. Next
 
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