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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Cad Wedge NC said:
You know what's so funny..... here we are in the year 2019 and we don't have any more of an idea concerning what this winter has in store than we would if we were in the 1950's. Heck, we might as well go back to looking at woolly worms, counting corn shucks, and watching acorns fall. Shoot, we can't even be reliable at two weeks out when it comes to forecasting winter weather....... Modern technology at its' best.
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Agreed and I did just that, dang forgot the woolly worms though...

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2019-20-discussion.595/post-205587
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Trying to follow all the reasons why I don't get snow gives me shear stress every year.

Keeping a very open mind for this winter, but the only thing that makes me somewhat pessimistic is the persistence of the WAR. If that doesn't go away I think we will be in for a repeat of next year. Debates can be made about why it's there, but to me it's the tell tale sign of stagnated pattern and meh. Models in the longer range want to get rid of it but closer in it shows back up. I need that thing gone.

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NoSnowATL said:
And........is this good or bad Webb?


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wQBO shear stress during weak-moderate El Ninos has historically been beneficial to the SE US because those winters have occurred in concert w/ a deeper Aleutian Low.

Oth, this could come back to bite us if we consider that our interannual base state favors large Aleutian anticyclones, suppressing it only slightly w/ addition of a wQBO may lead to an even larger SE US ridge this year vs last winter.
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Webberweather53 said:
wQBO shear stress during weak-moderate El Ninos has historically been beneficial to the SE US because those winters have occurred in concert w/ a deeper Aleutian Low.

Oth, this could come back to bite us if we consider that our interannual base state favors large Aleutian anticyclones, suppressing it only slightly w/ addition of a wQBO may lead to an even larger SE US ridge this year vs last winter.
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Was just about to post that our w-nino Nov that featured a npac low went on to have BN winters and the Nov’s that didn’t have a npac low were AN. Not a big sample size though.

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KyloG said:
Was just about to post that our w-nino Nov that featured a npac low went on to have BN winters and the Nov’s that didn’t have a npac low were AN. Not a big sample size though.

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Looks like we're trying to follow the warm composite, shocker...

Not a big sample, but at the rate we've been going, anything that isn't favorable for cold around here gets blown out of proportion and we end up torching because reasons.

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Well, at least we have this! Note: we’re finishing close to where we did last year, and that seemed to work out great! ...

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KyloG said:
The GEFS does develop a better NPAC low, but displaced south. Last Nov definitely didn’t have it and we torched. Will see if this verified and how last half Nov develops.


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Yeah, all of this will probably change with the next set of runs. lol But it's good, even if not ideally located, to see a repeating low anomaly in the general vicinity of where we want it. Hopefully, we can do a little something right.
 
Webber or kylo, i think at some point yall need to come out and make a big post and let us know what we need to see take place for us in the east to have a legitimate chance at a colder winter than last. Usually by mid november, the winter pattern is locking in, but not always. I know most on here really want to know. Instead of the mumbo jombo you get on twitter.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber or kylo, i think at some point yall need to come out and make a big post and let us know what we need to see take place for us in the east to have a legitimate chance at a colder winter than last. Usually by mid november, the winter pattern is locking in, but not always. I know most on here really want to know. Instead of the mumbo jombo you get on twitter.
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That’s definitely a Webber expertise job, or even GaWx.

I am a full bonafide snow weenie, hoping and praying for sleet/snow.
 
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