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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Am I wrong to think that’s a Miller A type look?


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Don’t get sucked in! Just as a reference for how bad the Euro is out in the distance here’s last year’s EPS 45 day total snowfall graphic from the end of December through mid February. This is the type of product that drives a man to be an eternal pessimist. Carry on
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@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



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Don’t get sucked in! Just as a reference for how bad the Euro is out in the distance here’s last year’s EPS 45 day total snowfall graphic from the end of December through mid February. This is the type of product that drives a man to be an eternal pessimist. Carry on
View attachment 25517

Just FYI jimmy that’s the control run, so the mean was likely less snow. You can tell because it says ensemble c01 at the top.


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@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



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Thanks Jon. Goes right to what I was thinking yesterday about the seasonal models being not worth very much.
 
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Just FYI jimmy that’s the control run, so the mean was likely less snow. You can tell because it says ensemble c01 at the top.


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Noted, but more like “Out of control run”
 
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@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



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It wasn’t wrong....

Just a year off....
 
Thanks Jon. Goes right to what I was thinking yesterday about the seasonal models being not worth very much.

I distinctly remember feeling great about last year because of the epic pattern the EURO seasonal showed, and all the other models. Lesson clearly learned. They basically hold no value.
 
Thanks for the "met" tag, mods. So, I moved from Asheville to New Hampshire in 2017 and spent last two winters living there. Some highlights from my stay there:

- 160 inches of snow in 15 months (Dec 2017 to March 2019)
- coldest high temperature (3 degrees)
- coldest low temperature (-12 degrees)
- coldest wind chill (-30 degrees)
- first white Christmas morning (8" on 12/25/17... 16" total depth at end of day)
- 10 storms over 6"
- 3 storms over 14"
- 43" of snow in 4 days during March 2018 (first storm 19", second storm 24")
- first time with foot & two feet snow depths
- new PR for snow depth at 26 inches
- new PR for single storm snowfall at 24 inches.

Anything this winter in Raleigh area will be gravy after my time in New Hampshire. Looking forward to forecasting North Carolina again with my new wealth of winter weather forecasting from my time in the North!
 
Thanks for the "met" tag, mods. So, I moved from Asheville to New Hampshire in 2017 and spent last two winters living there. Some highlights from my stay there:

- 160 inches of snow in 15 months (Dec 2017 to March 2019)
- coldest high temperature (3 degrees)
- coldest low temperature (-12 degrees)
- coldest wind chill (-30 degrees)
- first white Christmas morning (8" on 12/25/17... 16" total depth at end of day)
- 10 storms over 6"
- 3 storms over 14"
- 43" of snow in 4 days during March 2018 (first storm 19", second storm 24")
- first time with foot & two feet snow depths
- new PR for snow depth at 26 inches
- new PR for single storm snowfall at 24 inches.

Anything this winter in Raleigh area will be gravy after my time in New Hampshire. Looking forward to forecasting North Carolina again with my new wealth of winter weather forecasting from my time in the North!
Welcome aboard to the, um, board. Looking forward to a gravy-filled winter!
 
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