Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Am I wrong to think that’s a Miller A type look?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don’t get sucked in! Just as a reference for how bad the Euro is out in the distance here’s last year’s EPS 45 day total snowfall graphic from the end of December through mid February. This is the type of product that drives a man to be an eternal pessimist. Carry on

 

[Jon]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jon]

Don’t get sucked in! Just as a reference for how bad the Euro is out in the distance here’s last year’s EPS 45 day total snowfall graphic from the end of December through mid February. This is the type of product that drives a man to be an eternal pessimist. Carry on
View attachment 25517

Just FYI jimmy that’s the control run, so the mean was likely less snow. You can tell because it says ensemble c01 at the top.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks Jon. Goes right to what I was thinking yesterday about the seasonal models being not worth very much.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just FYI jimmy that’s the control run, so the mean was likely less snow. You can tell because it says ensemble c01 at the top.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Noted, but more like “Out of control run”

 

[Arcc]

@Rain Cold

The euro seasonal SEAS5 is terrible. It did a terrible job last year....


And recently, it was 100% wrong about november with a one month lead! One month! And here we are looking at 1-3mo lead runs for the winter months



The current seasonal shows +0.5-2°C widespread for DJF. Hard to even find normal temps on the US outside of the NE being normal in Dec and Jan.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It wasn’t wrong....

Just a year off....

 

[Rain Cold]

It wasn’t wrong....

Just a year off....

The ultra-long seasonal. I like it. We're still waiting for the Jamstec and JMA, right?

 

[Arcc]

The ultra-long seasonal. I like it. We're still waiting for the Jamstec and JMA, right?

Probably still ten years off or so.

 

[SnowNiner]

Thanks Jon. Goes right to what I was thinking yesterday about the seasonal models being not worth very much.

I distinctly remember feeling great about last year because of the epic pattern the EURO seasonal showed, and all the other models. Lesson clearly learned. They basically hold no value.

 

[Rain Cold]

Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.

Read it and boy that sucks, looks accurate to me to be honest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WxBlue]

Thanks for the "met" tag, mods. So, I moved from Asheville to New Hampshire in 2017 and spent last two winters living there. Some highlights from my stay there:

- 160 inches of snow in 15 months (Dec 2017 to March 2019)
- coldest high temperature (3 degrees)
- coldest low temperature (-12 degrees)
- coldest wind chill (-30 degrees)
- first white Christmas morning (8" on 12/25/17... 16" total depth at end of day)
- 10 storms over 6"
- 3 storms over 14"
- 43" of snow in 4 days during March 2018 (first storm 19", second storm 24")
- first time with foot & two feet snow depths
- new PR for snow depth at 26 inches
- new PR for single storm snowfall at 24 inches.

Anything this winter in Raleigh area will be gravy after my time in New Hampshire. Looking forward to forecasting North Carolina again with my new wealth of winter weather forecasting from my time in the North!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.

I don't have time to read, but I skimmed and looks window jumping worthy to me. I'm sure it'll verify too.

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't have time to read, but I skimmed and looks window jumping worthy to me. I'm sure it'll verify too.

Here's all you need to see...

 

[whatalife]

Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.

@Rain Cold I don't need you pouring cold rain on my winter dreams at the beginning of Nov. However! This write up will become truth

 

[SD]

Here's all you need to see...

View attachment 25570

I'm down with this forecast

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

[Brick Tamland]

@Rain Cold I don't need you pouring cold rain on my winter dreams at the beginning of Nov. However! This write up will become truth

Why?

 

[Metwannabe]

Why?

Because that's what happens more times than not. Just like saying the Patriots will win the Superbowl, I don't like it but it happens so much lately and until something changes roll with it.

 

[Rain Cold]

Thanks for the "met" tag, mods. So, I moved from Asheville to New Hampshire in 2017 and spent last two winters living there. Some highlights from my stay there:

- 160 inches of snow in 15 months (Dec 2017 to March 2019)
- coldest high temperature (3 degrees)
- coldest low temperature (-12 degrees)
- coldest wind chill (-30 degrees)
- first white Christmas morning (8" on 12/25/17... 16" total depth at end of day)
- 10 storms over 6"
- 3 storms over 14"
- 43" of snow in 4 days during March 2018 (first storm 19", second storm 24")
- first time with foot & two feet snow depths
- new PR for snow depth at 26 inches
- new PR for single storm snowfall at 24 inches.

Anything this winter in Raleigh area will be gravy after my time in New Hampshire. Looking forward to forecasting North Carolina again with my new wealth of winter weather forecasting from my time in the North!

Welcome aboard to the, um, board. Looking forward to a gravy-filled winter!

 

[SnowNiner]

Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.

I'll treat that outlook as I would one that called for cold and snowy...with a huge chunk of salt.