Awesome! If his forecast is opposite of what happens like his forecast was last year, we are sitting great!
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Awesome! If his forecast is opposite of what happens like his forecast was last year, we are sitting great!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, we are looking good.
This is old, but appropriate
tennessee storm
Member
Like the tornado ? part lol....This is old, but appropriate
Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/
Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window.
LOL...well this guy is really good so that's scary he came up with this. That has to be the warmest winter pattern for the SE. With the consensus looking like Dec will torch we will have to wait until mid-January to really know if we will have any chance at a good back half.
tennessee storm
Member
Yes. He is very good what he does .. I put a lot faith in his cast ... hopefully he is correct part me wants it to Be correct. At least ...
NoSnowATL
Member
As stated earlier he was way off last year. I do agree December will be warmer then avg and January will be as well for the first half. I think February and March will be our only hope to not repeat last year.
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It seems though when winter forecasts are wrong they are wrong when calling for snowy/cold in the east. When was the last winter where the consensus was for a AN winter in the east and it ended up being BN. Winter of 2015 was called fairly well, back half weak nino. 2014 was called pretty well too, if I recall. Then you have to go all the way back to 2010 and 2011 for the previous BN winters in the E/SE. I know 2010 was called cold/snowy by most.
I may be wrong, but I remember most calling for torch city the 2013-2014 winter.
I'm not sure any of it relates to the skill of any particular long range forecaster. I mean look at the map I did earlier. I didn't use a bunch of elite meteorological terms or fancy analogue sets or any collegiate scrabble words or anything, and I'm probably going to be right. Not taking anything away from Isotherm's (or anyone else's efforts), but going with warm winter persistence, while sort of a cop-out forecast, is likely to turn out accurate. Going colder takes some grapefruits, because most of the time (especially these days) you're just going to flat out be wrong.
Isotherm's analog package was pretty good for that winter. I can't recall many that were blowtorch warm.
Agreed...6 out of past 8 were AN. You go AN every winter you will be right 75% of the time, which is pretty good. I do think we will have a BN winter coming up soon...in the next decade, I hope.
I'm really hoping the low solar component throws a monkey into the wrench that ends up confounding the warm forecasts.
I would say his forecast was decent at best. His snowfall forecast busted bigly as Trump would say across the SE.
This to me is a good sign, Nov with this stout an Aleutian low. 2015, 2010, 2003.
Very different than 2019, 2007, 2005
But it seems like every winter we develop this false hope and it never materializes.
Thanks for posting that. I've noticed the Aleutian Low showing up a lot lately as well. Now, the latest model runs essentially go to pot in D10+ range wrt to the Aleutian Low and in the polar regions. I suspect we'll know in 2 or 3 weeks whether or not the AL will be a recurring feature of Winter 2019-2020.
Early December storm ?! Lolol
Itd be nice to find a way to get that into the Greenland/davis strait region and go full blown -nao
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NoSnowATL
Member
He will push for cold until he is 6ft under. You have to respect that in a way.
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