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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Rain Cold said:
What happened to December and January? :(
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You won’t be wishing to see those come to fruition, unless you love cold rain!
There was an article on our news the other day about persimmon seeds and winter outlooks. They sliced ten persimmons, and got 6 spoons, 2forks, and 1 knife! Winter cancel! ?
 
Rain Cold said:
The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
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You are allowing far too much model credit ... a coin you can spend ... ;)
 
Tarheel1 said:
You won’t be wishing to see those come to fruition, unless you love cold rain!
There was an article on our news the other day about persimmon seeds and winter outlooks. They sliced ten persimmons, and got 6 spoons, 2forks, and 1 knife! Winter cancel! ?
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Spoons are what you want to see if you want snow., 60% chance of a snowy winter.... I'll take those odds!
 
Ollie Williams said:
*Facepalm*
unnamed(51).png
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Well to be fair, if we're going with persistence modeling and forecasting....I'd probably agree with that map if you change it to March through April. February no. March to April, guaranteed.
 
I know that a good number here don't want to have a cold Nov because of the fear that that increases a chance to flip to mild for DJF. However, @Webberweather53 posted that there is actually a small positive correlation between a cold Nov and cold DJF. Furthermore, the Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE US wk to mod Nino winters since 1895 have averaged 2-3 colder than normal and include the coldest Nov. on record. Here are the 12 coldest wk to moderate Nino SE winters and the respective prior Novembers:

Year: Nov temps
2002: cold
1979: mild
1977: mild
1976: cold (coldest Nov on record preceding coldest winter on record)
1969: cold
1968: cold
1963: normal
1941: normal
1939: cold
1911: cold
1904: cold
1899: mild

So, Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters were as follows: 3 mild, 2 normal, 7 cold
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Average DJF anomaly of 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

ColdWkToModNinoDJF.png



Average preceding November anomaly for 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

ColdNovB4ColdWkToModNinoDJF.png
 
GaWx said:
I know that a good number here don't want to have a cold Nov because of the fear that that increases a chance to flip to mild for DJF. However, @Webberweather53 posted that there is actually a small positive correlation between a cold Nov and cold DJF. Furthermore, the Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE US wk to mod Nino winters since 1895 have averaged 2-3 colder than normal and include the coldest Nov. on record. Here are the 12 coldest wk to moderate Nino SE winters and the respective prior Novembers:

Year: Nov temps
2002: cold
1979: mild
1977: mild
1976: cold (coldest Nov on record preceding coldest winter on record)
1969: cold
1968: cold
1963: normal
1941: normal
1939: cold
1911: cold
1904: cold
1899: mild

So, Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters were as follows: 3 mild, 2 normal, 7 cold
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average DJF anomaly of 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25467



Average preceding November anomaly for 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25468
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Larry,
You bash my memory and crush some folk lore, but who can argue with stats? I'll buy you the biggest Sonny's dinner they have if this pans out! ;)
Best,
Phil
 
BirdManDoomW said:
A sample mean of 12 is just not much to go on.
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I think I know weather ... and I do have my memories and stories from those passed ... but if Larry and Webb suggest an opposite possibility grounded in facts ... I'm tossing what I think I know, along with memory and folk lore, and praying and preparing, and in this case ordering another cord of wood ... worse case ... the wood rots ... best case, I need more wood by 1/15/20 ...
 
ajr said:
Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can answer this, but why does it seem the world as a whole is mostly warm? Shouldn't it average out somehow?
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Worth noting a prediction is different than reality. Plus, how would the map look if the weak 0.25 warmth criteria was scaled differently resulting in it being white or neutral?
 
GaWx said:
I know that a good number here don't want to have a cold Nov because of the fear that that increases a chance to flip to mild for DJF. However, @Webberweather53 posted that there is actually a small positive correlation between a cold Nov and cold DJF. Furthermore, the Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE US wk to mod Nino winters since 1895 have averaged 2-3 colder than normal and include the coldest Nov. on record. Here are the 12 coldest wk to moderate Nino SE winters and the respective prior Novembers:

Year: Nov temps
2002: cold
1979: mild
1977: mild
1976: cold (coldest Nov on record preceding coldest winter on record)
1969: cold
1968: cold
1963: normal
1941: normal
1939: cold
1911: cold
1904: cold
1899: mild

So, Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters were as follows: 3 mild, 2 normal, 7 cold
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average DJF anomaly of 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25467



Average preceding November anomaly for 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25468
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I did the same kind of analysis of Novembers preceding the 8 WARMEST SE winters during a weak or moderate Nino and found a similar distribution of Novembers favoring cold:


Year: Nov temps
2018: cold
2006: normal
2004: mild
1994: mild
1953: cold
1951: cold
1923: cold
1918: cold

So, Novembers preceding the 8 warmest SE wk or mod Nino winters were as follows: 2 mild, 1 normal, 5 cold. This compares to a similar distribution for Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE wk or mod Nino winters: 3 mild, 2 normal, 7 cold. This comparison of stats thus tells me that a cold November during a weak or moderate Nino actually doesn't tell us much about the subsequent winter in the SE. Had the Novembers prior to mild wk to mod Nino winters instead been mild, then a cold Nov temp would have had some predictive value for the subsequent winter. However, what all of this analysis does tell me is that there appears to be some tendency for a cold SE November during a wk to mod Nino.

*Edit: But I should add that wk to mod El Ninos have more often been cold than mild in the SE based on ~30 of them since 1880. I've known that and so that has nothing to do with this November analysis.
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Average preceding November anomaly for 8 warmest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

ColdNovB4MildWkToModNinoDJF.png




Average preceding November anomaly for 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

ColdNovB4ColdWkToModNinoDJF.png
 
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GaWx said:
I did the same kind of analysis of Novembers preceding the 8 WARMEST SE winters during a weak or moderate Nino and found a similar distribution of Novembers favoring cold:


Year: Nov temps
2018: cold
2006: normal
2004: mild
1994: mild
1953: cold
1951: cold
1923: cold
1918: cold

So, Novembers preceding the 8 warmest SE wk or mod Nino winters were as follows: 2 mild, 1 normal, 5 cold. This compares to a similar distribution for Novembers preceding the 12 coldest SE wk or mod Nino winters: 3 mild, 2 normal, 7 cold. This comparison of stats thus tells me that a cold November during a weak or moderate Nino actually doesn't tell us much about the subsequent winter. Had the Novembers prior to mild wk to mod Nino winters instead been mild, then a cold Nov temp would have had some predictive value for the subsequent winter. However, what all of this analysis does tell me is that there appears to be some tendency for a cold November during a wk to mod Nino.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Average preceding November anomaly for 8 warmest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25477




Average preceding November anomaly for 12 coldest SE wk to mod Nino winters:

View attachment 25478
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Do I ship Sonny's now, or after MLK Day?
 
So, to sum up my November analysis conclusions for weak or moderate El Nino SE winters:

- Having a cold November doesn't in itself increase or decrease the chance for a cold winter per the stats
- That's because these Novembers have had about the same tendency to be cold regardless of whether or not the subsequent winter was cold
- But we already know that weak to moderate El Nino winters have some tendency to be cold. Nothing new about that and has nothing to do with analyzing November.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Am I wrong to think that’s a Miller A type ish look?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's hard to say. Could be. I also saw that DT tweeted that the November outlook (from the Euro seasonal) back in October called for a warm November. The November outlook for November was much colder. However, the November outlook for D-F was still warm.
 
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