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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

If 14/15 as an analog comes to pass that's actually not so bad. Outside of a cold snap in January it was fairly boring though until February and some are going to say they were disappointed (I'd get it if I was at home for that winter).

That was the last amazing February though if you look at the big picture. Amazing cold and a few shots of winter weather.
 
I think it was a true back loaded winter. February was very active. We have a few severe weather events that year as well.


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packfan98 said:
More short-range model data to click on if we have an impending storm. Parallel data for the HRRR and RAP by early 2020. Twice as many maps to click on every hour and 48 hr progs 4 times daily...
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This has been in the works for sometime. Many wanted to wait till after the IBM core was fully established in the GFS.

This is a good thing.


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NWMSGuy said:
Not quite sure? Someone care to chime in? If it was our last BN winter then let's reel it in!
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Yes, 2014-15 was the last winter that was BN for most of the southeast. Like every year since 2011, December was actually AN, but a NN January and a well BN February resulted in the winter ending up cooler than average.
1571675976690.png
2015-16 was well AN, primarily due to a record-warm December:
1571676055222.png

2016-17 was even more well AN than 2015-16. December was only slightly AN and was the coolest month for the SE US, but there were no significant winter weather events. I jokingly call this winter the "three-day winter" because there was really only a very short period where it was well BN (January 7-9). The second half of January and February was well AN, and there were lots of days with highs in the 70s that month.
1571676192618.png

2017-18 was the best winter of the last four, but still finished AN due to a torchy February. After a NN December that was the coldest since 2010, there was about a two-week stretch of really cold weather in this winter. Most of the SE got at least something in this winter, with three major events (December 8-9, January 3-4 and January 16-17). There were also some token flakes in March in some areas.
1571676267042.png

And then you have the dumpster fire of a winter that was 2018-19. After an early December winter storm that the western two-thirds of NC and southern VA did well, the rest of the winter was largely a shutout. There were a few flurry events in January-March that some areas got lucky with a dusting, but most did not. This winter was especially frustrating since most climate models and weather forecasters predicted a cooler than average winter that did not verify.
1571676491015.png
 
CyclonicFury said:
Yes, 2014-15 was the last winter that was BN for most of the southeast. Like every year since 2011, December was actually AN, but a NN January and a well BN February resulted in the winter ending up cooler than average.
View attachment 24754
2015-16 was well AN, primarily due to a record-warm December:
View attachment 24755

2016-17 was even more well AN than 2015-16. December was only slightly AN and was the coolest month for the SE US, but there were no significant winter weather events. I jokingly call this winter the "three-day winter" because there was really only a very short period where it was well BN (January 7-9). The second half of January and February was well AN, and there were lots of days with highs in the 70s that month.
View attachment 24756

2017-18 was the best winter of the last four, but still finished AN due to a torchy February. After a NN December that was the coldest since 2010, there was about a two-week stretch of really cold weather in this winter. Most of the SE got at least something in this winter, with three major events (December 8-9, January 3-4 and January 16-17). There were also some token flakes in March in some areas.
View attachment 24757

And then you have the dumpster fire of a winter that was 2018-19. After an early December winter storm that the western two-thirds of NC and southern VA did well, the rest of the winter was largely a shutout. There were a few flurry events in January-March that some areas got lucky with a dusting, but most did not. This winter was especially frustrating since most climate models and weather forecasters predicted a cooler than average winter that did not verify.
View attachment 24758
Click to expand...
As 2018-19 was my first winter really paying attention to models, was 2018-19 like really bad?
 
Sleet City USA said:
As 2018-19 was my first winter really paying attention to models, was 2018-19 like really bad?
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The most infuriating part of it was how it was expected to be colder than normal by many meteorologists and models (except for NOAA who gave equal chances of BN/AN). There were no widespread winter storms after December 10. I was one of the lucky ones with the December storm (I got around 8"), but I did not see a single flake afterward. Days with BN temperatures were few and far between. January was the most boring January I have ever seen. February was no better.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Yes, 2014-15 was the last winter that was BN for most of the southeast. Like every year since 2011, December was actually AN, but a NN January and a well BN February resulted in the winter ending up cooler than average.
View attachment 24754
2015-16 was well AN, primarily due to a record-warm December:
View attachment 24755

2016-17 was even more well AN than 2015-16. December was only slightly AN and was the coolest month for the SE US, but there were no significant winter weather events. I jokingly call this winter the "three-day winter" because there was really only a very short period where it was well BN (January 7-9). The second half of January and February was well AN, and there were lots of days with highs in the 70s that month.
View attachment 24756

2017-18 was the best winter of the last four, but still finished AN due to a torchy February. After a NN December that was the coldest since 2010, there was about a two-week stretch of really cold weather in this winter. Most of the SE got at least something in this winter, with three major events (December 8-9, January 3-4 and January 16-17). There were also some token flakes in March in some areas.
View attachment 24757

And then you have the dumpster fire of a winter that was 2018-19. After an early December winter storm that the western two-thirds of NC and southern VA did well, the rest of the winter was largely a shutout. There were a few flurry events in January-March that some areas got lucky with a dusting, but most did not. This winter was especially frustrating since most climate models and weather forecasters predicted a cooler than average winter that did not verify.
View attachment 24758
Click to expand...


There was a significant winter storm in 2016-17 near the beginning of January, just unfortunately missed Raleigh

January 6-7 2017 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
There was a significant winter storm in 2016-17 near the beginning of January, just unfortunately missed Raleigh

View attachment 24759
Click to expand...
I remember that one. I was expecting several inches of snow. The rain took longer than expected to change over, and once it changed over it was predominantly sleet. Accumulations in the RDU area were around 0.5-1", when most forecasts and models were projecting at least 4-6". Overall it was the only significant winter storm for the southeast US that winter, and AN temperatures took over only a few days later (we had mid-70s for highs less than a week later!). Interestingly this occurred during a La Nina winter, when we tend to see gradients like this more commonly in El Nino winters.

We have had a lot of winter storms in recent years with a tight gradient in the RDU area, and I'm expecting this winter to be no different with a weak +ENSO event likely. North and west of I-85 in NC has been by far the luckiest region of the Southeast this decade.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I remember that one. I was expecting several inches of snow. The rain took longer than expected to change over, and once it changed over it was predominantly sleet. Accumulations in the RDU area were around 0.5-1", when most forecasts and models were projecting at least 4-6". Overall it was the only significant winter storm for the southeast US that winter, and AN temperatures took over only a few days later (we had mid-70s for highs less than a week later!). Interestingly this occurred during a La Nina winter, when we tend to see gradients like this more commonly in El Nino winters.

We have had a lot of winter storms in recent years with a tight gradient in the RDU area, and I'm expecting this winter to be no different with a weak +ENSO event likely. North and west of I-85 in NC has been by far the luckiest region of the Southeast this decade.
Click to expand...
One of those "what might have been" for you.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There was a significant winter storm in 2016-17 near the beginning of January, just unfortunately missed Raleigh

View attachment 24759
Click to expand...
That was a great sleet storm for me, but I could smell the rain through the whole event. I'm in the orange zone in extreme north Wake county.
IMG_0421.JPG
 
Poimen said:
View attachment 24771
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Hmmm western US warm and dry, I’d disagree with that, I think there will be times this winter where the pattern is gonna be dominated by GOA/Aleutian ridging which supports a -PNA and thus cooler temps and precip in the west while we probably deal with the SER during those periods, Every year I see that where the west is forecasted to be warmer and it verifies the opposite, rest of the map I sorta agree with, especially 4
 
For some reason there I have a feeling there will probably be a lot of temp swings in this area, like something about all the pattern drivers setting up gives me a feeling this winter will probably be somewhat chaotic.
 
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