pcbjr
Member
Going to send you a PM, but you can't open it until after 12/29 ... have thoughts, but ...
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
December is a fall month anymore. February is a spring month. Only winter we have left is a 10 day shot in January anymore.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've been stuck in this regime w/ a hefty NE Pacific/AK ridge, SE Canada vortex & SE US ridge complemented by a stout +NPMM & warm "blob" in the Gulf of Alaska since the winter of 2012-13.
The month-to-month evolution of these winters is certainly intriguing & imo a good place to start for this winter's forecast.
Like the October US temp analogs, the last several winters suggest a greater potential for a colder than normal November followed by a torchy December. Thereafter, January has been a complete toss-up, February has been warmer than average but interspersed w/ a few gems when we are cold.
As some of us would probably attest to, the only winter month that's consistently performed in our favor vs normals the last several years is March.
With the warmer than average Octobers & Decembers & cooler November & Marches, we've basically had shorter than normal springs & falls, and backloaded winters. This gets annoying after a while.
We ain't gonna know what's gonna happen till it happens
That's all i got to say
That's all i got to say
I sign of things to come this winter. I cant wait!
LickWx
Member
So winter is only when we are significantly below average 3 months straight? I see, no wonder disappointment is everywhere.
NoSnowATL
Member
We probably won’t see DJF below normal for awhile. I think we forget we get snow even in a warm winter. We will see snow in the SE this year. Just not 5-10ft we want. Looks very 2013ish and that winter was good here in Ga.
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SimeonNC
Member
Am I the only one who isn't all doom and gloom lol, despite the above average conditions every winter since 2012-13 had had a notable event.
Personally I believe that even if we do end up above average overall, it won't be a megatorch and overall closer to average. We don't need wall to wall BN departures for a good winter.
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Personally I believe that even if we do end up above average overall, it won't be a megatorch and overall closer to average. We don't need wall to wall BN departures for a good winter.
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Warm winter and snow in my opinion is alright and what I like, rather would go from snow or some nice weather to go outside and grill, and not have to deal with lip cracking cold after, been like that these past few years where like a week after winter storms we torch with return flow and a pumping Bermuda high, and you can still get good snows in a warm winter, that’s especially easy for North Carolina
No but average would be nice for a change. Look a couple posts above. +4 for Decembers this decade. February isn't much better. The only month that is average is January over the decade. That's not very winter like!
Here was the prediction for last winter made in November, which was an even colder prediction:
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That's a smart approach.... We have been fooled by long range models and predictions too many times. However, just for one winter, I would like to see it verify colder than forecasted. I think that NOAA's outlook will bust too warm as a whole. My winter forecast continues to be for a normal winter (+/-0.5 F) when all is said and done..... Is that too much to ask for?
I have officially released my winter outlook for the carolinas. While you all may complain about the future, history will always narrow down to this map.
Yes, most likely too much to ask for. But +1 to +2 (vs 1981-2010 average) may be attainable if we’re fortunate. Compared to last winter, that would be so much colder and it would be cold enough to be a real winter.
pcbjr
Member
Public PM ... watch out for January ... fruit on the tree is ripe ...
olhausen
Member
I’m not worried at all just as I would not be all excited if everyone was predicting a great winter. The last five winters I’ve had 3 really good ones and two really really bad ones. Because of the good winters before last I got overly excited last fall when everything was pointing to a great winter. It was a good reminder to not get to up or down on predictions for winter. Whatever is going to happen will happen regardless of predictions beforehand. Luckily I live far enough north and high enough in elevation that I rarely have 3 bad winters in a row. So if I experience a 2nd bad winter in a row this year ive got a pretty good shot at a good winter next season. Hopefully though most of us get a good one this season!
NWMSGuy
Member
For any of you who have the winter blues already. Just trying to keep the vibes positive in here. 
For any of you who have the winter blues already. Just trying to keep the vibes positive in here.
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I’m sorry but I can’t take him serious, that’s some very long range type stuff, many factors that can negate cold making it the the SE
NoSnowATL
Member
To be far, his forecast isn’t for the SE, like JB he only cares about the NE and Europe.
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