• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

I admit I am not very good at knowing how SST effect the weather patterns for seasonal patterns, but there are some changes from this time last year....
View attachment 24800View attachment 24801
More than some. Check out Greenland! Total opposite and an overall more distinguished warmth in the Pacific. Wonder if the below normal near Indonesia will have an effect.
 
This is just a drill. In the event of a real warning you would be instructed on what to do next. ????. Plus this a nice practice attach and paste. Maybe this will get everyone ready for what’s to come in about 1 1/2 months from now. Feels good to be back... ?View attachment 24805View attachment 24806
Please for the LOVE OF GOD NO ENSEMBLES!
 
I admit I am not very good at knowing how SST effect the weather patterns for seasonal patterns, but there are some changes from this time last year....
View attachment 24800View attachment 24801

That’s one impressive +IOD, also almost looks like the PDO is leaning negative with cooler SSTs near the coastal areas of the west/nw while AN water temps is pooling more towards the Aleutian Islands
 
More than some. Check out Greenland! Total opposite and an overall more distinguished warmth in the Pacific. Wonder if the below normal near Indonesia will have an effect.
Wonder if those warmer waters around Greenland can pump that high and lead to some good 'ol Greenland blocking down the road
 
Side note: Before this winter gets ramped up, Could we please have a tutorial on how to save a map to our phone then publish it? Instead of the screenshots. Less detail that way. I'm sorry rant over. I don’t want to know what you been searching for in the advertisements.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Side note: Before this winter gets ramped up, Could we please have a tutorial on how to save a map to our phone then publish it? Instead of the screenshots. Less detail that way. I'm sorry rant over. I don’t want to know what you been searching for in the advertisements.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

YES

 
The Aleutian or sometimes GOA ridge has been persistent for a decade now.

i9LVHOvAm4.png


The past few months it's been more of the same and looks to continue.

compday.ejCyCuhC4R.gif


download.png


I just don't see what is going to change for this winter. Last year we had the weak nino, low solar, supposedly favorable QBO and it was for naught. This is probably the least excited I have been about winter prospects since the 90's. I have enjoyed tracking the rain chances, something we will be doing the next few months.
 
The Aleutian or sometimes GOA ridge has been persistent for a decade now.

View attachment 24822


The past few months it's been more of the same and looks to continue.

View attachment 24823


View attachment 24824


I just don't see what is going to change for this winter. Last year we had the weak nino, low solar, supposedly favorable QBO and it was for naught. This is probably the least excited I have been about winter prospects since the 90's. I have enjoyed tracking the rain chances, something we will be doing the next few months.
So we have ridging into AK and western Canada. A -NAO and the fooking SER is still there. Looks odd and if it verifies like that then I give up and start to think the SER is pattern driver instead of a result of the pattern.
 
The Aleutian or sometimes GOA ridge has been persistent for a decade now.

View attachment 24822


The past few months it's been more of the same and looks to continue.

View attachment 24823


View attachment 24824


I just don't see what is going to change for this winter. Last year we had the weak nino, low solar, supposedly favorable QBO and it was for naught. This is probably the least excited I have been about winter prospects since the 90's. I have enjoyed tracking the rain chances, something we will be doing the next few months.
Who hurt you?
 
So we have ridging into AK and western Canada. A -NAO and the fooking SER is still there. Looks odd and if it verifies like that the I give up!

Look at the plot from Aug 1 through Oct 21. Pretty much the same.

The patterns below are going to be the rare exception (2010). Doesn't mean it can't snow, I expect to see an event or two in the SE this winter. But prolonged BN temps are the exception now too.

JUQlSaz7xh.pngCWgP96hnZC.png
 
Who hurt you?

LOL. It's almost Nov and I usually get excited about the upcoming winter and started looking at things and noticed...nothing has changed.

Even JB has given up trying to make it cold in the east. HIs prelim winter forecast for temps is essentially a slightly cooler version of what we have seen on average the past decade, and he is probably still to cold.

cd107.15.181.206.295.8.23.27.prcp.pngDecember_2019_February_2020_Forecast.png
 
Looking at SSTs from last Oct to this Oct. Is there that big a difference?

oisst_anom_3d_globe_2019102100.pngoisst_anom_3d_globe_2018102100.png

And these were the temps for last winter.

cd107.15.181.206.295.8.31.2.prcp.png
 
Back
Top