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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Ollie Williams

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Dang! Model cycle difference on weathermodels? It must be a commercial feature because I’m not seeing that in my available parameters. That would make comparing runs much easier lol.


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Ryan Maue (weathermodels.com)is actually affiliated with them so, that’s probably why.


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Webberweather53

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I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png
 

pcbjr

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I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261

View attachment 26259

View attachment 26260

View attachment 26258
Webb,
Thanks for not including N FL ... LOL ... ;)
Phil
 

Bham 99

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I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261

View attachment 26259

View attachment 26260

View attachment 26258
Very cool
 

Brick Tamland

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The NC Climate Office released their winter outlook. The summary reads

With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!

This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.

Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!


https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
 

BirdManDoomW

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I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261
Criteria snowfall was recently changed a few years ago for northern foothills can be seen. Wish they wouldn’t have done that it skews everything. Apples to oranges.
 

cd2play

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With all the unknowns coming up for December into January, that's the one thing I'm absolutely sure of in my mind, the strat warming stuff will mean nothing for our winter; at least when it means something.
The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
 

Thor

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The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
 
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I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
No snow to go with cold. Bring me torch any day...
 

KyloG

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Even if the GEFS is over doing the EPO and troughiness in the east it's still a good sign to see a Aleutian low with -EPO. Kind of what I was hoping for to start winter off...regardless of the NAO.

I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.

download.png
 

Brick Tamland

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I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.

The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.

The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.

I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.

This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.

We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.

Here's the link to the chart.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
 

CyclonicFury

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I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.

The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.

The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.

I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.

This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.

We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.

Here's the link to the chart.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
It's crazy that some of the best winter storms for the Deep South were RDU shaft jobs. I think RDU only got about an inch with the 1993 Storm of the Century. RDU also got mostly ZR from the January 2011 storm with very little snow, and the December 8-9 event in 2017 was almost all rain.
 

KyloG

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GaWx

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I just saw this comparison of the winters since 2007-8 vs those of the prior decade (see images below), which confirms how strong the dominating SER has been on average since 2007-8 along with how much colder it has been in the Midwest and Rockies. This even includes the cold 2009-10 and 2010-11 and still the SER has easily dominated. The 2007-8+ map looks to me like it has been dominated by a La Ninaish pattern. Well, per ONI, there have been 6 La Niña, 4 El Niño, and 2 neutral though that doesn’t really scream Nina: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Will 2019-20 be similar? I don’t think so and still don’t think the SER will be nearly as strong as last winter. The biggest hope for me is that we eek out a weak El Niño and at least get a near normal winter rather than a torch. The last 90 days of SOI say that’s quite possible:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Of course, some might say that last winter was a weak El Niño and look at what we got and also that we’ve got a warmer globe and especially warmer Arctic the last few years. Fair enough but 2018-9 was by a pretty wide margin the warmest weak El Niño on record in the SE. Also, we have the wild card of the weakest solar minimum in perhaps 200 years ongoing.

The prior 10 winters’ average look like El Niño type pattern domination with warmer north vs cooler south. But per ONI, there were 4 La Niña to go along with the 4 La Niña meaning balanced.

First, here are Winters since 2007-8: SER dominated/La Niña look:

F4CBF4FC-95D9-4A12-AB26-8907531501E3.png

Second, here are the prior 10 winters: warm Midwest/Rockies and no dominating SER/El Niño look
925C7D42-D4A4-4ED4-A3FC-3C98D7B25D45.png
 
Last edited:

pcbjr

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I just saw this comparison of the winters since 2007-8 vs those of the prior decade (see images below), which confirms how strong the dominating SER has been on average since 2007-8 along with how much colder it has been in the Midwest and Rockies. This even includes the cold 2009-10 and 2010-11 and still the SER has easily dominated. The 2007-8+ map looks to me like it has been dominated by a La Ninaish pattern. Well, per ONI, there have been 6 La Niña, 4 El Niño, and 2 neutral though that doesn’t really scream Nina: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Will 2019-20 be similar? I don’t think so and still don’t think the SER will be nearly as strong as last winter. The biggest hope for me is that we eek out a weak El Niño and at least get a near normal winter rather than a torch. The last 90 days of SOI say that’s quite possible:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Of course, some might say that last winter was a weak El Niño and look at what we got and also that we’ve got a warmer globe and especially warmer Arctic the last few years. Fair enough but 2018-9 was by a pretty wide margin the warmest weak El Niño on record in the SE. Also, we have the wild card of the weakest solar minimum in perhaps 200 years ongoing.

The prior 10 winters’ average look like El Niño type pattern domination with warmer north vs cooler south. But per ONI, there were 4 La Niña to go along with the 4 La Niña meaning balanced.

Winters since 2007-8: SER dominated/La Niña lookView attachment 26433

Prior 10 winters: warm Midwest/Rockies and no dominating SER/El Niño look
View attachment 26434
Great perspective, Larry!
 

EV_WS

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I still say +2 to +4 for the se for the winter as a whole. I'm not saying that just because I'm pessimistic, I truly believe it. The last decade has proven this and the warm spells will be far greater and longer lasting than the cold spells. As far as snow I'm not as pessimistic as one storm can double seasonal averages in most places.
 
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