Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

[Stormdoc]

Such big differences in the pacific day 7-8+ with the GEFS/EPS.

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Hmm, seems strange that EPS is colder, but has a weaker western ridge? Not sure what to make of it other

Whatever storm we got in this timeframe would probably be Miller type-A/coastal low in the Carolinas unless more North Pacific blocking appears between now & verification.

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Interesting look there. Love how the block continues to retrograde further south and west into Baffin Island. In my experience, the mid Atlantic often score with a west based NAO, but us southerners need the block to slide down further to drop the storm track even further south. But do we have a cold enough air mass, and do we time a shortwave correctly around the trough as it is carved out? Definitely worth keeping an eye on

 

[Webberweather53]

Hmm, seems strange that EPS is colder, but has a weaker western ridge? Not sure what to make of it other

Interesting look there. Love how the block continues to retrograde further south and west into Baffin Island. In my experience, the mid Atlantic often score with a west based NAO, but us southerners need the block to slide down further to drop the storm track even further south. But do we have a cold enough air mass, and do we time a shortwave correctly around the trough as it is carved out? Definitely worth keeping an eye on

Agreed, coastal lows are usually a big disappointment snow-wise in/around the Charlotte area at least relative to everyone else in central NC. Hopefully we get overrunning instead...

 

[BHS1975]

Agreed, coastal lows are usually a big disappointment snow-wise in/around the Charlotte area at least relative to everyone else in central NC. Hopefully we get overrunning instead...

And with the way precipitation over preforms these days we just need cold air.


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[packfan98]

I went ahead and started the December thread so we can discuss any specific threats the models are seeing the first week.
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/december.461/

 

[Arcc]

It's not December so I refuse to post what may happen in November there.

The 12z really trended toward the Euro for the possible threat around the 27th. The big monster low is farther east and creates better separation and the southern stream wave is faster. We may have a legit threat here.

 

[Brick Tamland]

It's not December so I refuse to post what may happen in November there.

The 12z really trended toward the Euro for the possible threat around the 27th. The big monster low is farther east and creates better separation and the southern stream wave is faster. We may have a legit threat here.

What about the November thread?

Might be good to stop posting here since we're talking about specific threats now.

 

[Storm5]

What about the November thread?

Might be good to stop posting here since we're talking about specific threats now.

We have no specific threat


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[Brick Tamland]

We have no specific threat


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Okay, just thought the idea of this thread was for general thoughts on the upcoming winter, and the monthly threads were more for discussion on what the model runs show. I think it would be better to keep the two separated so there is not so much back and forth with the same stuff in the threads.

 

[Arcc]

Gonna get crushed, but it's something.

 

[Rain Cold]

Gonna get crushed, but it's something.

That's the only period to watch in the next 15 days, IMO. Once the core of the cold lifts out after that, we're done for a while. The Pacific looks like snot, if you want a SE winter storm. It still should be cool, though. Hopefully, the pattern will reset again soon.

 

[Arcc]

Euro actually pops a weak surface low in the GOM, but still too much northern stream.

 

[Kylo]

That Dec 2-3 potential looks promising, except for the lack of cold air.

 

[SnowNiner]

That's the only period to watch in the next 15 days, IMO. Once the core of the cold lifts out after that, we're done for a while. The Pacific looks like snot, if you want a SE winter storm. It still should be cool, though. Hopefully, the pattern will reset again soon.

What's the actual problem with the Pacific in the long range, I just want to make sure I understand please. Is it because there's no ridging along the west coast (+PNA) and the big Aleutian low spins warm air into the country? We need ridging there to bring cold air south from Canada correct? If not what are we looking for to make the Pacific better? Like you said, we stay only cool with the set up below even though we've got a -NAO/-AO.

 

[Webberweather53]

What's the actual problem with the Pacific in the long range, I just want to make sure I understand please. Is it because there's no ridging along the west coast (+PNA) and the big Aleutian low spins warm air into the country? We need ridging there to bring cold air south from Canada correct? If not what are we looking for to make the Pacific better? Like you said, we stay only cool with the set up below even though we've got a -NAO/-AO.

We don't need ridging in the North Pacific to drag continental polar air out of central Canada, that pattern above will suffice but the glaring issue many present (& rightfully so) is that the parcel trajectories in patterns w/ deep GOA lows will tend to spend a lot of time over the North Pacific before entering North America, moderating temps over the continent as a whole, including the continental polar airmass source region. If you want the kitchen sink thrown at you, then ask for a monster North Pacific high. Even still, there's some ridging in the Pacific-Arctic that's trying to seed North America with air from Eurasia, it's not that bad taken at face value.

 

[Rain Cold]

What's the actual problem with the Pacific in the long range, I just want to make sure I understand please. Is it because there's no ridging along the west coast (+PNA) and the big Aleutian low spins warm air into the country? We need ridging there to bring cold air south from Canada correct? If not what are we looking for to make the Pacific better? Like you said, we stay only cool with the set up below even though we've got a -NAO/-AO.

Webber basically said it. There's just not a clean, fresh flow from the north into the SE. We're essentially getting stale, cool air. That can work in the heart of winter, but it's not what you want when you're outside the winter weather climo window in early December. It's not a butt awful pattern, and it's fixable, probably pretty easily. But it's not a look that I really want to see that would give me a decent degree of confidence in a SE winter storm.

 

[Arcc]

Happy hour GFS may get interesting.

Wow, 18z says "what is three hundred miles east with the southern s/w at 168?"

 

[Tarheel1]

Webber basically said it. There's just not a clean, fresh flow from the north into the SE. We're essentially getting stale, cool air. That can work in the heart of winter, but it's not what you want when you're outside the winter weather climo window in early December. It's not a butt awful pattern, and it's fixable, probably pretty easily. But it's not a look that I really want to see that would give me a decent degree of confidence in a SE winter storm.

Thanks Pack!

 

[Arcc]

That was close.

 

[Arcc]

Very close. Still good ways to go, but I like the trends.

 

[Webberweather53]

Good lord, especially February.