• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Both GFS and FV3 have another ULL traversing the SE in 8 days. It will too warm, but if we get the -NAO to lock in, what a look that will be in a month or so. The NW to SE movement is obvious.

Edit: would be a smasher with cold air.
 
Arcc said:
Both GFS and FV3 have another ULL traversing the SE in 8 days. It will too warm, but if we get the -NAO to lock in, what a look that will be in a month or so. The NW to SE movement is obvious.

Edit: would be a smasher with cold air.
Click to expand...

It's close verbatim but who knows, we should have plenty more of these where they came from throughout the course of the winter.
gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png
 
GFS-FV3 is very cold at the end of the run.
fv3p_T2m_us_65.png
 
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
Click to expand...

I don't think we'll ever get everything to set up perfectly. Just have to get it set up good enough.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like the -NAO stuff, it the Pacific looks rather unremarkable at the end of the model runs. That needs to get in line if we want a good winter storm this early in the season.
Click to expand...

There's more than enough North Pacific blocking on the GEFS, the EPS keeps the heights lower over Alaska and eastern Siberia. However, it completely whiffed on the -EPO that's currently ongoing until we were several days out.
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_62.png


 
I feel like the upcoming pattern if it verifies is more than enough for a winter storm. As others have said, I feel excited for the late Nov/early Dec periodm

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's more than enough North Pacific blocking on the GEFS, the EPS keeps the heights lower over Alaska and eastern Siberia. However, it completely whiffed on the -EPO that's currently ongoing until we were several days out.
View attachment 7436


Click to expand...

Good point. I'm noticing a parade of storm systems rolling into the Aleutians and into the GOA. As long as they rotate north from there, we may be ok. But if we get wound up systems in the GOA or crashing into the west coast, that is probably not a good signal for cold air transport. I am also not very fond of the trough signature in the SW. If that is simply the result of the STJ, and the -NAO is strong enough to keep things suppressed, then fine. But I've seen that signature in recent years, and it's not the best for our area. Granted, we haven't had a strong west-based -NAO, so we'll see. So far, I'm not seeing a lot of deep cold air penetrating into the SE in the extended, from the deterministic models on a consistent basis. Below normal, yes. But we need a good transport in from the source region, especially this time of year. Maybe it's just a lag, as noted above. I'll feel better seeing the north pac get into shape, though.
 
Kylo said:
A -NAO appeared for about 10 days, but with hostile pac. Also, no super duper Scandinavian ridge that preceded it.

I do recall at the end of last January this perfect pattern that was being modeled and that went up in smoke just like our temps for February.

View attachment 7441

View attachment 7440
Click to expand...
Do Scandinavian blocks usually have more staying power? Last year the AO tanked which is a big reason I think we saw the early snow.
 
Last winter sucked! Charleston got more snow out of one storm , than most of the SE got all winter! I think Savannah got more snow and ice than mby!? The after Christmas coldsnap, was pretty epic though! I love cold and dry!:cool:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top