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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Even against other winter storms I've looked at that struck NC in late Nov/early Dec (going all the way back to the late 1800s), this pattern is arguably one of if not the best looking one I've ever seen at this time of the winter season (late Nov-early December) given what's currently modeled. Obviously that far from guarantees anything around here but wow, even if we don't continue trending even more favorably in the extended I'd give this at least an 8 or 9 out of 10.
The big 3 you look for in a general sense when trying to sniff out a storm are all there on NWP and increasing in magnitude even as we get closer, just don't know when or if there will be a storm. If nothing happens so be it, the fact we have arguably a jackpot look on the planetary-scale right off the bat is encouraging to see & a nice change of pace from the last several years. The biggest enemy is probably climatology in this case but we're entering our legitimate temporal window for big dogs in the SE US
Huge -NAO (check)
North Pacific/Western North America blocking (check)
Strong subtropical jet (check)
storm (?)
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Even against other winter storms I've looked at that struck NC in late Nov/early Dec (going all the way back to the late 1800s), this pattern is arguably one of if not the best looking one I've ever seen at this time of the winter season (late Nov-early December) given what's currently modeled. Obviously that far from guarantees anything around here but wow, even if we don't continue trending even more favorably in the extended I'd give this at least an 8 or 9 out of 10.
The big 3 you look for in a general sense when trying to sniff out a storm are all there on NWP and increasing in magnitude even as we get closer, just don't know when or if there will be a storm. If nothing happens so be it, the fact we have arguably a jackpot look on the planetary-scale right off the bat is encouraging to see & a nice change of pace from the last several years. The biggest enemy is probably climatology in this case but we're entering our legitimate temporal window for big dogs in the SE US
Huge -NAO (check)
North Pacific/Western North America blocking (check)
Strong subtropical jet (check)
storm (?)
Click to expand...
If they affect more of the SE than just NC then bring them on!
 
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

download (24).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
Click to expand...
I might faint......
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
Click to expand...

Looks like the JMA for February already lol. Hey, I’ll take it.

3bd8266e372e71bf2233be45ec4d262d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
Click to expand...
Looks like a setup for overrunning event if I see it correctly. Nothing sharp for a Miller A, but one is possible still. With a lower jet stream storms would ride by with cold overhead. If only we could maintain such a setup for weeks then we could get an epic winter, but that's dreaming.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord 2.0...
These are the kind of patterns you only hope to dream to see in real life if you're a snow weenie. I just hope it holds thru at least the first week or two of December (the longer the better obviously).

Historically, non-La Nina years with big Scandinavian highs/-NAOs in November generally hold a favorable configuration in December & January.

View attachment 7402
Click to expand...
Generally, patterns usually take a little longer to materialize, than modeled! And this seems like it would be a good time for that to occur!
 
Jon said:
Looks like the JMA for February already lol. Hey, I’ll take it.

3bd8266e372e71bf2233be45ec4d262d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Good lord if we manage to have 3 months of this...

If we have this pattern in general at least off & on for the next 3 months I'll faint lol.

There's only one winter I'm aware of that really had the perfect concoction of north Atlantic & North Pacific high-latitude blocking & a strong subtropical jet every single month of the winter (DJF)...

It's this one.
Winter of 1935-36 NC Snowmap.png


It's actually crazy to see how similar this month is to November 1935 now that I look at it... The most well observed areas of the globe during the 30s, specifically, the North Atlantic, Europe, and NW Eurasia are a virtually perfect match. The monster Scandinavian high in November stretching into Greenland is usually a very good sign if you like high-latitude blocking for a majority of the winter because it projects onto a weaker polar vortex, much like most of the winters of the 1960s did.
compday.GNDkEHSzTK.gif

gR7LhgbkiS (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good lord if we manage to have 3 months of this...

If we have this pattern in general at least off & on for the next 3 months I'll faint lol.

There's only one winter I'm aware of that really had the perfect concoction of north Atlantic & North Pacific high-latitude blocking & a strong subtropical jet every single month of the winter (DJF)...

It's this one.
View attachment 7403


It's actually crazy to see how similar this month is to November 1935 now that I look at it... The most well observed areas of the globe during the 30s, specifically, the North Atlantic, Europe, and NW Eurasia are a virtually perfect match. The monster Scandinavian high in November stretching into Greenland is usually a very good sign if you like high-latitude blocking for a majority of the winter because it projects onto a weaker polar vortex, much like most of the winters of the 1960s did.
View attachment 7404

View attachment 7405
Click to expand...

Just for giggles, here's how the global SSTs stack up w/ 1935-36. It's a good or great match especially in the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic.
compday.YO1gc_nfJN (1).gif

prescomp.XIQ7raGtSA.png
 
pcbjr said:
:oops:

View attachment 7409
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt we'll ever see anything like that 1935-36 in my lifetime even if everything in the large-scale sense was perfect but I'd love to be proven wrong. You'll have a very hard time finding another winter that had a favorable looking global pattern every single month of the winter & at least one (or more) big dogs hit NC every single month, and to top if off featured a white Christmas & New Years. Plus it snowed in Charlotte every month from November 1935 to April 1936.
gjp3KM8Hwu.png

zP2V4JJf7e.png
1kAq_IvL8c.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I seriously doubt we'll ever see anything like that 1935-36 in my lifetime even if everything in the large-scale sense was perfect but I'd love to be proven wrong. You'll have a very hard time finding another winter that had a favorable looking global pattern every single month of the winter & at least one (or more) big dogs hit NC every single month, and to top if off featured a white Christmas & New Years. Plus it snowed in Charlotte every month from November 1935 to April 1936.
View attachment 7412

View attachment 7411
View attachment 7410
Click to expand...
Webb ... 100% agree (I posted the following months after to solidify/prove your point ... they are above this somewhere up there) ... :D
 
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