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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Jon said:
I’m actually fairly confident if we get the blocking as modeled, that we might have a chance during the last week of November into December. Of course it’s probably going to be a frustrating system if it materializes as temps will be borderline....but it just depends.

The fact that we’re talking storm chances before December is crazy. Hold on!


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Yeah, the cold will very likely be marginal. If we can go straight Miller A, some of us east of the Apps might have a shot at a little backside snow or something. Very much a bonus for this time of year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, the cold will very likely be marginal. If we can go straight Miller A, some of us east of the Apps might have a shot at a little backside snow or something. Very much a bonus for this time of year.
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Straight Miller A . This dirty talk in November needs to be kept to a minimum


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For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

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Kylo said:
For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

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My guess is that the cryosphere has had more time to charge by Feb as well as the jet wavelength being more favorable. That is a wag, so it could be completely wrong.
 
Kylo said:
For Raleigh the average temps on Dec 1 is same as Feb 28th and then of course we get progressively colder. Must be other factors on why mid-Feb is so much more snowy for us than mid-Dec when avg temps are relatively the same.

We have had a few winter storms first week of December (2000, 2002, 2010, 2017).

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That composite lines up with most N.C. snow composites and snowy year composites. It tells us one thing we usually need:

Blocking
 
Storm5 said:
If we were a month down the line I’d be even more excited !!! But looking at the temperature anomalies it does not reveal that cold of an airmass . Still very exciting though


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Probably the time when we get good blocking and a favorable western ridge, we get all the cold air pinched off in Siberia as Pacific air kills Miller A after Miller A.
 
Kylo said:
Pacific is improving too. NPac low getting going.

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LR but obvious here...you can see the west coast trough getting beaten down and that LP coming east over the pacific. Trends should continue next few days.


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I've been on the weather boards since 2010 and started following weather models around the same time. Although imperfect (shift the greenland block and west coast ridge a bit more west) I've never seen such a favorable set up on the models. -NAO/+PNA/Split flow/active southern stream/Aleutian low/low heights off the east coast. Whether it comes to fruition or not is another question, but still. It's hard not to feel good about the winter right now.

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Jon said:
Euro seasonal snowfall anomaly for Feb has some love for the SE.

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Jon,
Not gonna go PBP with you like the old American days, but you just keep this up, please ... we're getting close ... LOL ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
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Dear December, would you hurry up and get here already? Me and my dreamy drooly weather weenies are waiting patiently for your month to arrive. So any speed up would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance .
 
accu35 said:
Dear December, would you hurry up and get here already? Me and my dreamy drooly weather weenies are waiting patiently for your month to arrive. So any speed up would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance .
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Sadly, we're only each given a finite number of days on this Earth; so pardon the disagreement ... enjoy each and every minute without any "hurry up" ... Just sayin' ... :cool:

... but I get your drift (pun intended) ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Sadly, we're only each given a finite number of days on this Earth; so pardon the disagreement ... enjoy each and every minute without any "hurry up" ... Just sayin' ... :cool:

... but I get your drift (pun intended) ... :eek:
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Lol, I'm just having little fun
 
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