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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

The ongoing El Nino and subseasonal tropical forcing shift are going to seriously juice up the subtropical jet later this month into early December, thus it makes sense we'd see NWP models showing a parade of storms crashing into California by week 2-3.

You can see the Kelvin Wave and MJO beginning to move into the Pacific already (in blue/purple shading), enhanced convection underneath the active phases of these phenomena will deposit excess angular momentum into what's already a pretty decent southern stream, thus leading to enhanced storminess in southern California & likely the rest of the southern tier as we get towards Thanksgiving and beyond.
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Storm5 said:
That’s an all out torch for December


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If the pattern shown on the models for late November sets the tone for December, I think that call busts pretty bad. It's a big if, but calling for 4 degrees warmer seems like a real stretch to me, considering this and seasonal modeling.

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VP anomalys sure don't look like nino? Would expect the -vp more pronounced around the dateline.

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Euro looks to be setting up a threat from both directions at 240hrs. Verbatim that could be a potent severe weather outbreak, then just after the timeframe you have a s/w dropping into the PAC NW with the Alutian low strengthening and starting to pump the western ridge.
 
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