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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion (2 Viewers)

GaWx

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If the -AAM, which is normally associated with La Nina, doesn't go away by winter, would that mean a stubborn SE ridge this winter, which has been the case this month, despite El Nino? If so, folks such as Phil, Stormsfury, and myself would have a much lower chance for a cold winter relative to normal. The warm nearby Atlantic and Gulf could aid in this although hopefully not.
So, would a continued -AAM mean a good chance of a sharp contrast over the SE with coldest relative to normals with coldest near Memphis and warmest in FL/near SE coast? Does anyone have a link to an AAM history table by month?

Edit: Looking at DJF temperature anomalies, the only El Ninos I found with what looks like the warmest SE US anomalies being near the SE coast and in FL were 1958-9, 1972-3, 2006-7, and 2014-5. Did any of these have a dominant -AAM despite El Nino?

Edit #2: Regarding the stubborn SER, Nov will end it right at normal here and Phil will end up at least +2 it appears despite very cold places such as Memphis and Birm. and chilly places such as ATL and RDU. I'm not complaining though as normal Nov wx is quite pleasant.
 
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GaWx

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The AAM is raging positive atm, excess westerly momentum is trying to move poleward into the mid-latitudes while easterly momentum dominates near the surf zone, a configuration that's favorable for high-latitude blocking, at least for now.
View attachment 7628
Thanks for this info. I had been thinking the AAM was still negative but I see on your graph that it actually switched in Oct to + and for the moment strongly + as you noted. That jibes much better with El Nino vs the - of Sept. Now, it will be interesting to see if the near Dateline OLR finally switches to negative soon, if it hasn't already done so this month. Oct still had +OLR, which was unprecedented back to 1976 for El Nino.
 
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That was a relatively snowless winter, in most of the SE!?
For Nashville:
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
*24" of snow
*31 days with a T or more of snow
*23 days with highs below freezing
*50 days with snowcover
*36 consecutive days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13

*10 winter events
*only 2 rain events
*only 1 day out of 63 above normal
*only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50
 
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For Nashville:
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
*24" of snow
*31 days with a T or more of snow
*50 days with snowcover
*incredible 36 straight days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13

*23 days with highs below freezing
*10 winter events
*only 2 rain events
*only 1 day out of 63 above normal
*only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50
I’m not sure about GSP, but chances are, if TN jackpotted that much, we probably didn’t do too well, but I could be wrong!? Our winter avg is like 5”, it wouldn’t take much to make an epic winter!
 
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For Nashville:
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
*24" of snow
*31 days with a T or more of snow
*23 days with highs below freezing
*50 days with snowcover
*36 consecutive days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13

*10 winter events
*only 2 rain events
*only 1 day out of 63 above normal
*only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50
I would trade my left umm...hand for a winter like that.
 

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