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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Wow, that is awesome if we can nail a big dog in a December of an El Nino that's money in the bank. January & February are usually even better & in most NINOs w/ a "nice" storm in December (including but not limited to 1896-97, 1904-05, 1930-31, 2002-03, 2009-10, etc.) more sizable storms followed it up later in the winter. Bring it on.
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If Web is happy, I am VERY HAPPY!
 
Jon said:
The CFSv2 has caved.

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We need to be sure and encourage the CFS here. I know how hard it was for it to paint blue on the map.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, that is awesome if we can nail a big dog in a December of an El Nino that's money in the bank. January & February are usually even better & in most NINOs w/ a "nice" storm in December (including but not limited to 1896-97, 1904-05, 1930-31, 2002-03, 2009-10, etc.) more sizable storms followed it up later in the winter. Bring it on.
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The Greenland blocking high forecast to develop on the Euro next week is an absolute beast and just a classic evolution generally speaking w/ a Scandinavian block retrograding west towards Greenland, harkens back to classical wave dynamics where huge rossby waves retrograde westward against the background flow due to planetary vorticity advection that's created by a difference in f (the coriolis parameter) w/ latitude. Eventually this block will become a west-based -NAO as upstream cyclonic wave breaking continues to reinforce it against diffusion and radiative changes (high heights imply warmer temperatures via hypsometric equation, warmer air will radiate more heat away to space, which actually weakens the blocking ridge unless there are other forcing mechanisms maintaining it which there are here)
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The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
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Low heights in the Atlantic. How does that work again. :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is consistently trying to go for the jackpot pattern in our neck of the woods near the end of November into early December w/ +PNA, high-latitude north Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, coupled to an active subtropical jet, you really can't ask for much more other than an actual storm obviously.

I would willingly roll the dice and take my chances every single time w/ a pattern like this even if it's on the edge of our most favorable snow climo.
View attachment 7356
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I’ll Take a Dec 2002 redux, all day everyday! This little Thursday CAD, may just be the appetizer!
 
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