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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

I know it's just faulty statistical logic, but we're really overdue for a colder than normal Dec around here... I can also see something like this past Sept, where the overall month averages close to normal, but one half the month is way above and the other half way below, wild swings that is... who knows.
 
Well, I saw the first woolly worm, of the year, and it says pack it up! Mild winter here. They have an 80% accuracy supposedly, so let's hope it was just a mistake one or that we get the 20%!
 
Per JB
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Aol.weather winter forecast has a weak La Nina in store for there season. Says the "Southeast" will see possible little above avg temps with very wet possible, with 2 or 3 dangerous ICE Storms potentials.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Hmm well my mom has been trying to get me to move to Indiana to be near her.
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Spent 7 &1/2 years up there - different kind of winter. Totally. You'd better like cold, and if N of IndianaNoplace, you'd better really love snow with a perpetual passion ... like eternal ... ;)

btw - you'd better love cornfields!
 
pcbjr said:
Spent 7 &1/2 years up there - different kind of winter. Totally. You'd better like cold, and if N of IndianaNoplace, you'd better really love snow with a perpetual passion ... like eternal ... ;)
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She lives east of Indy near the OH border. Im sure winters are not THAT bad there. I can see it being a lot worse around South Bend. This will be her first winter there as she has lived in GA her entire life.
 
Almost that time of the year yet again for modeled and historical snow map fantasies (lol) & I'm hoping to get at least some bits and pieces of a preliminary version of my winter storm archive for NC released within the next several months.
Pretty neat to see for example that the 1979 Presidents' Day snowstorm during the cool biased neutral winter of 1978-79 was not alone in central NC.
February 6-7 1979 NC Snowmap.png

February 9 1979 NC Snowmap.png

February 17-19 1979 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Almost that time of the year yet again for modeled and historical snow map fantasies (lol) & I'm hoping to get at least some bits and pieces of a preliminary version of my winter storm archive for NC released within the next several months.
Pretty neat to see for example that the 1979 Presidents' Day snowstorm during the cool biased neutral winter of 1978-79 was not alone in central NC.
View attachment 1347

View attachment 1348

View attachment 1349
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In addition to individual storms, I'll also be adding seasonal maps, as well as additional climatological maps...

Strong El Nino winter of 1896-97 for example... Available station data was used as is after initial QC, data in between stations was interpolated based on all the maps for this winter and estimated to the nearest 0.5", however this should provide a reasonable, relatively high resolution, first-guess approximation of seasonal snowfall at each location in NC. Randolph, Johnston, and Nash counties were the big winners...
Winter of 1896-97 NC Snowmap.png
 
One day 20 years from now we will be like, wonder if we are going to have a freeze this year, won’t even be snow. We will just be hoping to see a night below 32 degrees. :)
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
One day 20 years from now we will be like, wonder if we are going to have a freeze this year, won’t even be snow. We will just be hoping to see a night below 32 degrees. :)
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Imagine what the bugs and mosquitos will be like then if that were to happen LOL
 
Webberweather53 said:
In addition to individual storms, I'll also be adding seasonal maps, as well as additional climatological maps...

Strong El Nino winter of 1896-97 for example... Available station data was used as is after initial QC, data in between stations was interpolated based on all the maps for this winter and estimated to the nearest 0.5", however this should provide a reasonable, relatively high resolution, first-guess approximation of seasonal snowfall at each location in NC. Randolph, Johnston, and Nash counties were the big winners...
View attachment 1369
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I did a write-up ten years ago on the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm at AmericanWx's predecessor EasternUSWx. A fascinating snowstorm. Locations south of Charlotte received 15" of snow.
 
Eric said:
I did a write-up ten years ago on the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm at AmericanWx's predecessor EasternUSWx. A fascinating snowstorm. Locations south of Charlotte received 15" of snow.
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ATL got a very impressive 6.2" of SN/IP 12/2/1896 with the day's high 34, day's low 28, and 0.88" liquid equiv. This was by far the main event of the winter as only another 0.1" of SN/IP fell the rest of winter. This was back in the golden era of big ATL snowstorms of the late 1800s-early 1900s when the climate was colder. This fell just before the 10th anniversary of the largest Dec SN/IP event on record there, a 7" or so SN/IP 12/3-6/1886!
On 12/3/1896, Macon got 1.2". SAV had a very cold heavy rain. August got 1" of something with a hi/lo of 34/28 and ~2" of liquid equiv. It appears that there was a bad ZR there and at Columbia, where 3.4" of something also fell.
 
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GaWx said:
ATL got a very impressive 6.2" of SN/IP 12/2/1896 with the day's high 34, day's low 28, and 0.88" liquid equiv. This was by far the main event of the winter as only another 0.1" of SN/IP fell the rest of winter. This was back in the golden era of big ATL snowstorms of the late 1800s-early 1900s when the climate was colder. This fell just before the 10th anniversary of the largest Dec SN/IP event on record there, a 7" or so SN/IP 12/3-6/1886!
On 12/3/1896, Macon got 1.2". SAV had a very cold heavy rain. August got 1" of something with a hi/lo of 34/28 and ~2" of liquid equiv. It appears that there was a bad ZR there and at Columbia, where 3.4" of something also fell.
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The rain/snow line must have initially set up between Columbia and Chester, South Carolina. Chester received 15" of snow from the storm. The Charlotte newspaper noted snow accumulated in the city at the rate of an inch per hour with a temperature that remained steady at 24° throughout the storm. Winds picked up in the afternoon, such that the combination of heavy snow and strong winds reduced visibility to the point whereby, "...it was not possible to distinguish buildings a block distant." This snowstorm came on the heels of a very warm November in Charlotte. High temperatures during the week prior to the storm were in the seventies with lows in the sixties.

December 1896 Snowfall Accumulation
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Eric said:
The rain/snow line must have initially set up between Columbia and Chester, South Carolina. Chester received 15" of snow from the storm. The Charlotte newspaper noted snow accumulated in the city at the rate of an inch per hour with a temperature that remained steady at 24° throughout the storm. Winds picked up in the afternoon, such that the combination of heavy snow and strong winds reduced visibility to the point whereby, "...it was not possible to distinguish buildings a block distant." This snowstorm came on the heels of a very warm November in Charlotte. High temperatures during the week prior to the storm were in the seventies with lows in the sixties.
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Goes to show, you don't ever know; watch each card and play it slow ... wait until the deal goes down ... just sayin' ... :cool:
 
Don't look at the CPC, and for goodness sakes don't look at the Weeklies -- unless you like Siberia growing palm trees, and also have a 'script for the treatment of anxiety disorder ...
It'll turn on a dime, but even then ... don't bank on anything a model is showing long term for winter until well after the 31st ...
IMHO ... :confused:
 
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Eric said:
The rain/snow line must have initially set up between Columbia and Chester, South Carolina. Chester received 15" of snow from the storm. The Charlotte newspaper noted snow accumulated in the city at the rate of an inch per hour with a temperature that remained steady at 24° throughout the storm. Winds picked up in the afternoon, such that the combination of heavy snow and strong winds reduced visibility to the point whereby, "...it was not possible to distinguish buildings a block distant." This snowstorm came on the heels of a very warm November in Charlotte. High temperatures during the week prior to the storm were in the seventies with lows in the sixties.

December 1896 Snowfall Accumulation
120296-1.jpg
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Here's a more detailed map specifically for NC...
December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
 
Out of 25 weak to moderate La Nina winters since 1878-9, I found 7 that were cool to cold in the SE US overall:

- 1894-5: cold weak Nina
- 1903-4: cold weak Nina
- 1909-10: cold moderate Nina
- 1917-8: cold moderate Nina
- 1983-4; cold moderate Nina
- 1995-6: cool moderate Nina
- 2000-1: cool weak Nina

How was Oct as a whole preceding these? 6 were near normal and 1 was cold. So, none were warm like 2017.
How was Nov as a whole preceding these? 2 were cold, 3 were cool, 1 was normal and 1 was warm.

What does this all tell me?
- The overall warm Oct. of 2017 is actually not, in itself, a good indicator for a cold winter of 2017-18.
- A cool to cold November would be welcomed by me as only 1 of the 7 Novembers preceding a cool to cold weak to mod Nina was warm (1909). If we can get a chilly Nov., that wouldn't seem to be a bad thing and may even be good news even with a moderate Nina as the only two weak to moderate La Nina winters (out of 25) preceded by a cold Nov. (4 or more colder than normal) were cold.
 
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This doesn't look good as far as snow around here. But I recall a couple of years back when the pattern was supposed to give us record breaking snow totals, and we didn't even get to average here. We'll see.
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It seems winters here are becoming more and more of either one big winter storm or nothing at all.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It seems winters here are becoming more and more of either one big winter storm or nothing at all.
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That is definitely true for many areas as well. I think the more years you skip the bigger the storm when you do get one. Hope that bodes well this year since there are some areas near Atlanta that haven't been hit in 3 years or so.
 
Brick Tamland said:
This doesn't look good as far as snow around here. But I recall a couple of years back when the pattern was supposed to give us record breaking snow totals, and we didn't even get to average here. We'll see.
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I would take that with a grain of salt at least for rn. NOAA outlooks are just based on the typical conditions expected of an enso phase.

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SimeonNC said:
I would take that with a grain of salt at least for rn. NOAA outlooks are just based on the typical conditions expected of an enso phase.

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Yeah, they dont look at any other sources out there that points to a colder outlook.
 
One thing is it's been pretty dry here so far this fall. Summer was pretty wet. So, maybe the longer we stay dry during the fall the better chance the pendulum swings back the other way during winter.
 
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