cd2play
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This should be of interest to the people here.
Lucky for you that's what i like, that's what I like
This should be of interest to the people here.
What does this mean for winter? Thanks
This should be of interest to the people here.
Paging Dr. Larry...... QBO/ENSO question on line 1.
Today MDA wx services (they have never been either hypers or Debbie Downers with regard to winter..so a trustworthy source for objectivity) just happened to put out some interesting tidbits on this today! My own research of SE winter temperatures determined that the overall correlation of -QBO and SE winter temperatures is very weak. Consistent with this, MDA today showed a map indicating a near 0 correlation between QBO
and SE US DJF temperatures (although they also showed a weak correlation of it with a chilly November).
Then when one tries to narrow the results by adding in certain criteria like ENSO together with similar QBO patterns, you introduce the problem of limited sample size.
However, MDA today picked out the 9 closest QBO analogs, which require "negative in early summer reaching sub -10 by fall": 1958, 1962, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1991, 2000, 2009, and 2014 equally weighted. When they averaged these, it came out cool in the SE with -1 to -2.5 for DJF with coolest in the NW portion (such as TN and N AL).
But here's one big problem with this sample: ENSO is ignored. 1958, 1972, 1986, 1991, 2009, and 2014 were all oncoming El Niño years. So, after throwing them out, we're left with a small sample size of only three: 1962-3, 1983-4, and 2000-01. 1962-3 and 1983-4 were both neutral negative (NN) with 1962-3 having been NN for quite awhile before whereas 1983-4 was following strong El Niño. 2000-01 was weak La Niña that followed strong La Niña. None of these 3 had El Niño cancel" like we just had. So, take this fwiw:
- All 3 were cool in Nov.
- In DJF in the SE, 1962-3 was very cold, 1983-4 was cool, and 2000-01 was cool.
- All 3 were coldest in N AL/TN but none were mild anywhere in the SE or even in the Brent territory of TX.
- Dec was the coldest and was cold for all 3. Jan was still chilky for all 3 but not nearly as cold as Dec anomalywise averaged out. Feb varied from frigid to warm.
- if one were to then consider the +PDO of now, 1962-3 and 2000-1 would have to be thrown out thus leaving us just with 1983-4, a sample size of only ONE.
People will make what they want out of this, but hopefully they won't do a JB and start hyping. Remember, these are only QBO analogs with spring/summer ENSO that doesn't match well and we still don't have a great handle on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO. If PDO is also considered, only 1983-4 is left and stat credibility is very low.
Looks like another winter without snow in Atlanta. That will be 4 straight years I believe.
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Judging by the numerous typo's I've seen within the first few paragraphs, I don't put much confidence in their outlook. lol.Here is Weather Advanced preliminary winter outlook. Not sure how creditable Weather Advance is.
http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2017-2018-outlook/
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Lol. Winter is months away don't give up. I've seen snow the past two winters thankfully up here in cherokee countyLooks like another winter without snow in Atlanta. That will be 4 straight years I believe.
I have as well, and he lives further north of us now, so he should see snow. Atlanta itself is more likely to have snow if we get a pattern that isn't too cold and has moisture. What Atlanta needs is a good overrunning event. Those seem more likely than big lows and aren't as risky.Lol. Winter is months away don't give up. I've seen snow the past two winters thankfully up here in cherokee county
I have as well, and he lives further north of us now, so he should see snow. Atlanta itself is more likely to have snow if we get a pattern that isn't too cold and has moisture. What Atlanta needs is a good overrunning event. Those seem more likely than big lows and aren't as risky.
Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
Holy HORRIBLE !!!! This would be our luck. #fearthesoutheastridge
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