Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

[pcbjr]

In short! JB has canceled winter in the SE. Time to move on to next winter


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Based on that, we'll have two solid weeks of snow in Gainesville the entire time I'm in Tokyo at Christmas, given the track record ...

 

[Storm5]

What model is that?


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It's the SE winter cancel model


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[Storm5]

In short! JB has canceled winter in the SE. Time to move on to next winter


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This is the best news of the day so far. If JB is saying warm for us we all know to expect the opposite. I hope he goes full torch for us


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[accu35]

Im not worried at all about this winter. All it takes is one good cold front to meet our strom. I bet next month will be different with modle outlook for winter

 

[GaWx]

^Actually, that isn't a mild SE fcast as temps are only within 1F of norm, which means way colder than last one.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is the best news of the day so far. If JB is saying warm for us we all know to expect the opposite. I hope he goes full torch for us


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Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.

That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".

 

[Arcc]

Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.

If I remember right, 13-14' was also supposed to be a warm winter as well. We know what happened from late December though January.

 

[Arcc]

That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".

We had 3-4" for Christmas 2" plus ice from the January storm and an inch from one in February. Then we had two or three more snow shower days.

 

[tennessee storm]

Im not worried at all about this winter. All it takes is one good cold front to meet our strom. I bet next month will be different with modle outlook for winter

going be hard to get a good cold front penetrate that ridge... if that verifies... going be nice battle zone setip for winter severe outbreak chances... to be honest

 

[whatalife]

That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".

Yes it was!


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[accu35]

going be hard to get a good cold front penetrate that ridge... if that verifies... going be nice battle zone setip for winter severe outbreak chances... to be honest

Lol, your a severe freak anyways i bet thats what you want. I still dont thing the ridge will be that bad as models point out to be. I still believe this year will end up colder than last year plus better winter storm potential

 

[ForsythSnow]

Lol, your a severe freak anyways i bet thats what you want. I still dont thing the ridge will be that bad as models point out to be. I still believe this year will end up colder than last year plus better winter storm potential

I agree. It seems that winter forecasts rarely verify from big outlets. Plus, it's a weather model. It's August. What are the chances of will be exactly like that in a month? Also, above average doesn't mean the end of the world.

 

[Arcc]

In short! JB has canceled winter in the SE. Time to move on to next winter


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This is why using broad based analogs fail so bad. That is not a warm winter even if that is correct. A week or two of decent above average temps can easily skew a winter a half degree above normal.

 

[pcbjr]

Since on August 12th folks seem intent on discussing a winter forecast, I'm offering a mid-winter thought ...

 

[whatalife]

This is why using broad based analogs fail so bad. That is not a warm winter even if that is correct. A week or two of decent above average temps can easily skew a winter a half degree above normal.

Yep. I agree w/you 100%.


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[Webberweather53]

Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.

Oops

 

[pcbjr]

Oops

View attachment 820

View attachment 821

Will take it any year!
Thanks for shaking the old cobwebs, Webb!

 

[cd2play]

Since on August 12th folks seem intent on discussing a winter forecast, I'm offering a mid-winter thought ...

That's what she said!

 

[Eric]

Some photos from January 1966. The January 29-30, 1966 snowstorm was accompanied by record cold temperatures.