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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

The 2010-11 CPC winter forecast was originally predicted to be warmer than normal for most of the country. Not too concerned about anything they are putting out.

CPC_2011_forecast_verification.jpg
 
GaStorm said:
The 2010-11 CPC winter forecast was originally predicted to be warmer than normal for most of the country. Not too concerned about anything they are putting out.

CPC_2011_forecast_verification.jpg
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Lol what a bust that was as far as temps. Also, remmber, you don't need above normal for a good snow. In fact, lower precipitation could be better in the sense that higher precipitation usually means rain since snow is averaged at a 10 to 1 ratio. 1 inch of precipitation can mean 10 inches or not of snow, and can be a big storm. You still end below average if that is all that falls.
 
I don't know what the methodology of the CPC's winter forecast entails, but it just seems like they only look at the fact that there's likely to be a La Nina and say well, La Nina Winter = Dry and Warm for the Southeast. Eventhough it's obviously far more complicated than having La Nina or El Nino around. CPC's winter forecasts always seem generic imo. Anyone of us on this board could have put out that exact same forecast and have a decent chance of being right because of climate expectations from typical La Nina conditions. lol

ForsythSnow said:
Lol what a bust that was as far as temps. Also, remmber, you don't need above normal for a good snow. In fact, lower precipitation could be better in the sense that higher precipitation usually means rain since snow is averaged at a 10 to 1 ratio. 1 inch of precipitation can mean 10 inches or not of snow, and can be a big storm. You still end below average if that is all that falls.
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As much as I hate to admit it, we perform best in "thread the needle" events anyway. Rarely do we get a situation like they do in the Midwest/Northeast where we can have an abundance of arctic air and moisture without one overpowering the other thus screwing us in the process. If we get a lot of CAD events this winter (and the HP can remain stationary during the storm), we'll probably do ok just like some areas did during the January 2017 storm eventhough it was a complete disappointment down here. Pfft, 2-5 inches of snow turns out to be a couple inches of cold rain, some sleet, a light glaze of ice/dusting of snow on the backside. Man, I still get pissed everytime I think about that storm. lmao
 
SD, what are your thoughts on this winter? Do u think east based weak to mod niña with -QBO possible? If not, how come? What you think? Honestly
 
Although it's awfully early, if not premature, to start talking about winter, it's never too early to think about it.
One thought - very, very few winters have been "fun" if they started out with cold (not cool, but cold) and/or snow in October or early November; so here's thinking that if we can wait and not be despondent or even apoplectic (reader's choice) until after Thanksgiving, the odds would be better for some upbeat discussion when it's time to really start talking winter ... :confused:
 
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The Agung volcano in Bail, Indonesia, which erupted in 1963 is showing early signs of a major eruption yet again. If this were to materialize, and a major volcanic eruption occurred this could have reverberating impacts on the global weather and climate, namely slightly cooler global temperatures (at least momentarily) and this would favor a stronger wintertime polar vortex (+AO/NAO) that increases the chances of a warm winter here in the southeastern US. Definitely need to pay close attention to this over the coming weeks
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...-after-tremors-rising-smoke-from-bali-volcano
 
Ya I don't think i have high hopes for winter, but I'm awful at LR forecast
 
Usually when we have high hopes, winter takes a dump on us! So going in expecting torch and dry, anything besides that, is a pleasant suprise! Here's to a warm , dry winter for everyone! ( even the mid-Atlantic )
:)
 
Im not worried about forecasting winter this far out, sure it may be another warm winter like last year but or maybe a cold one, who knows this far out. Cold winters warm winters, we still can score. Lot more winter forecasters are predicting colder this year.
 
If we're headed to a peak of -0.9 or colder in Niño 3.4 (my def of moderate Niña based on the distribution), I'd then agree that the warmer than normal winter forecast in the SE US makes the most sense. However, if we end up with a La Niña having a peak in the range of, say, -0.5 to -0.89 (my def of weak Niña based on the distribution), I'd probably have to call it a total crapshoot with average chances for cold, near normal, and warm. Here's why:

Coldest 20% of SE US winters were: 1/7 of SEN, 1/3 of MEN to WEN, 1/8 of N, 1/5 of WLN,1/7 of MLN, 1/14 of SLN.

Therefore, I think it is important that we try our best to get a good feel for whether or not we're looking at a peak of -0.9 or colder this fall/winter or else warmer than -0.9. Of course, if it looks like we're headed to -1.3 or colder (strong La Niña based on distribution), that would be the worst case for potential for cold/best case for warm per SE history.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The Agung volcano in Bail, Indonesia, which erupted in 1963 is showing early signs of a major eruption yet again. If this were to materialize, and a major volcanic eruption occurred this could have reverberating impacts on the global weather and climate, namely slightly cooler global temperatures (at least momentarily) and this would favor a stronger wintertime polar vortex (+AO/NAO) that increases the chances of a warm winter here in the southeastern US. Definitely need to pay close attention to this over the coming weeks
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...-after-tremors-rising-smoke-from-bali-volcano
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Had a family reunion earlier and there was an old picture out of the snowstorm my family had been through back in '63 in Northwest MS. Had to have been a foot of snow on the ground in that picture. Also found this video clip from YouTube.

 
My gut tells me that we will have more wedge events and back-door cold fronts this winter here in NC than usual, especially if La-Nina stays weak. If you are an ice storm lover, this might be your winter.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
My gut tells me that we will have more wedge events and back-door cold fronts this winter here in NC than usual, especially if La-Nina stays weak. If you are an ice storm lover, this might be your winter.
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Yeah, i can see good ice storms this year
 
NWMSGuy said:
Had a family reunion earlier and there was an old picture out of the snowstorm my family had been through back in '63 in Northwest MS. Had to have been a foot of snow on the ground in that picture. Also found this video clip from YouTube.

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I actually remember that! The storm started on 12/31/63 and continued into 1/1/64. I was 5 years old, and my father had tickets to the Sugar Bowl, played at Tulane Stadium in NO. Alabama was playing Ole Miss. Bear Bryant was coaching Alabama; Bama's quarterback was Joe Namath at the time. But Joe had to sit that game out because he had been suspended by Bryant (don't know why).

Our family drove down from western KY, which had no snow at all. We started running into deep snow in TN and drove in it continuously until finally stopping for the night in Biloxi, MS. There were a few inches of snow in Biloxi, but nothing like we had driven through in AL and further north in MS. The interstate system didn't exist (or wasn't complete), so I don't know what route we took, but we were in deep snow for most of the trip from TN to Biloxi. Back then, you had no idea what the weather was like 50 miles from you. I'm sure many of you don't remember when we didn't have cell phones. ;)
 
skywatcher said:
I actually remember that! The storm started on 12/31/63 and continued into 1/1/64. I was 5 years old, and my father had tickets to the Sugar Bowl, played at Tulane Stadium in NO. Alabama was playing Ole Miss. Bear Bryant was coaching Alabama; Bama's quarterback was Joe Namath at the time. But Joe had to sit that game out because he had been suspended by Bryant (don't know why).

Our family drove down from western KY, which had no snow at all. We started running into deep snow in TN and drove in it continuously until finally stopping for the night in Biloxi, MS. There were a few inches of snow in Biloxi, but nothing like we had driven through in AL and further north in MS. The interstate system didn't exist (or wasn't complete), so I don't know what route we took, but we were in deep snow for most of the trip from TN to Biloxi. Back then, you had no idea what the weather was like 50 miles from you. I'm sure many of you don't remember when we didn't have cell phones. ;)
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There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
 
Welp, Glenn Burns showed a winter preview the other night and it was warm warm warm and dry dry dry..lol
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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I have no idea about the video, I didn't post it. I was referring to the 12/31/63 - 1/1/64 storm.
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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But yeah, based on the 1/1/64 snowfall total map, looks like the snowstorm NWMSGuy was referencing must have been the 12/22/63 storm.
 
Snowman63 said:
There were two major South-East winter storms in late December and early January that Winter. The 1st storm Memphis recorded 15" of snow on 12/22/63 and a record low of -13 on 12/23/63. So I'm curious which storm that video is referencing.
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I was also curious! Great year of Winter to say the least!
 
I know all the talk about a negative PDO being doom and gloom for winter lovers, but wasn't the Golden Era for snow in the 1960s and 70s with a negative PDO?
 
My dad was a college football and basketball play-by-play radio announcer, and loved college sports. So the deep snow was just an annoyance, a challenge really, and by God we were going to make it to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. And we did, come hell or deep snow. Here's a pic of Tulane Stadium the day of the game. :eek:

 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Well, it's Oct 1.... now all eyes turn to the snow cover index in Siberia. Not that it has been all that reliable in the past few winters but hey, at least it's something to track.
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I have given up on the Siberian snow cover. I would rather track the air on this side of the world and things that could pull cooler air this way than something that doesn't seem to influence us. The more snow they get, the less cold air comes over to our side of the world!
 
So did anyone else notice that the large cold pool just south of Greenland that's been around for a long time has disappeared?
 
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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I'm more hopeful for this winter than most are, I think the negative QBO with the La Nina will be a lifesaver.
 
GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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Really great input Larry! I believe we are headed towards a weak La Niña. Still lots of variables to be looking for as we move into this La Niña.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw MDA's winter outlook and it is much colder than the last 2 winters in the SE US with a near to slightly below DJF averaged out. D is warmer than normal, J is near normal, and F is colder than normal. In absolutes, J and F are pretty close since F's normals are warmer.

MDA's reasoning is that recent months of near record warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific should allow convection there to rule the MJO. They mentioned MJO phases 4-7 being dominant. For the SE US to actually have a cold winter, you'd want MJO 7 to be most dominant of those 4 phases and for La Niña to not get too strong. If 4-5 were to dominate even without a strong Niña, that would probably favor another warm SE winter. They have a cold winter for the Midwest, which is consistent with La Niña and phases 6-7 dominating over phases 4-5. Ultimately in the SE US for best cold winter chances, we'd want phases 7-8 with low amplitude, which includes being inside the circle, and La Niña to
stay weak.

I'm still calling this winter a crapshoot if La Niña can stay weak.
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Well there's a shocker. Another December above normal. I think that would be our 7th straight AN December. I'm about to just write off December as a winter month.
 
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