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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Oops :)
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Must a been JB forecast when he was with Accu.
 
Recently discovered this pair of Miller As in early-mid November 1968 that produced back to back snowfalls in portions of central NC, with the 2nd storm being stronger than the first and having more low level cold air to work with as a decent snowpack was laid down the spine of the Appalachians only a day or so earlier.
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November 11-12 1968 NC Snowmap.png

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Webberweather53 said:
*rolls eyes*
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This ~-1 DJF may very well be the warmest by him for PA and the NE US overall in many years though I do wonder if he's using 1981-2010 to determine the anomalies. Regarding this forecast verifying, I'd be quite content with +1 for my area now knowing there won't be El Niño (barring a near miracle). A +1 DJF would mean an actual winter that is far colder than the prior 2. I don't expect accumulating SN/IP here due to the low odds of 1 in 8 based on 18 winters over the last 140 years getting it though the hope is always there. These numbers are excluding ZR. A much higher hope is for getting a trace of SN or IP, which isn't rare.
 
GaWx said:
This ~-1 DJF may very well be the warmest by him for PA and the NE US overall in many years though I do wonder if he's using 1981-2010 to determine the anomalies. Regarding this forecast verifying, I'd be quite content with +1 for my area now knowing there won't be El Niño (barring a near miracle). A +1 DJF would mean an actual winter that is far colder than the prior 2. I don't expect accumulating SN/IP here due to the low odds of 1 in 8 based on 18 winters over the last 140 years getting it though the hope is always there. These numbers are excluding ZR. A much higher hope is for getting a trace of SN or IP, which isn't rare.
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Yeah if you get a trace where your at, then thats a win. As for our inland peeps we may get in on some good action this winter. Great post larry.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Recently discovered this pair of Miller As in early-mid November 1968 that produced back to back snowfalls in portions of central NC, with the 2nd storm being stronger than the first and having more low level cold air to work with as a decent snowpack was laid down the spine of the Appalachians only a day or so earlier.
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My brother told me the November 11-12, 1968 storm had thundersnow. Thanks for posting these accumulation maps of past snowstorms. I've enjoyed them!
 
Webberweather53 said:
*rolls eyes*
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I don't live in Florida but was just wondering what it takes for them to have below normal temps in the winter. Don't think I have ever seen them forecasted below normal for winter, guess El Niño years maybe. Maybe I answered my own question... lots of rain and clouds or a cold front like the one in 1899.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I don't live in Florida but was just wondering what it takes for them to have below normal temps in the winter. Don't think I have ever seen them forecasted below normal for winter, guess El Niño years maybe. Maybe I answered my own question... lots of rain and clouds or a cold front like the one in 1899.
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Luck ... ;)
 
Any relationship between major hurricane landfalls and the following winters? 92-93 was a rough one but wonder how that correlates if even at all.


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MBell said:
Any relationship between major hurricane landfalls and the following winters? 92-93 was a rough one but wonder how that correlates if even at all.


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I did analogues last year (run Cleo and Kate and compare them to last year's storms - Hermine and Matthew) and busted big time ... no help here ... :(
 
pcbjr said:
I did analogues last year (run Cleo and Kate and compare them to last year's storms) and busted big time ... no help here ... :(
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It was worth a shot lol!! As good as this pattern is I'm scared it won't last when it matters most to us lol.


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MBell said:
Any relationship between major hurricane landfalls and the following winters? 92-93 was a rough one but wonder how that correlates if even at all.


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I say that's doubtful, no correlation.

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So if we were to remain in Neutral ENSO going into the Winter Months, I see that my location has had a few good Winter Storms in such years. 1994 looks to have been one of those and we saw a hell of an Ice Storm for the Delta Region of Mississippi. That was a crazy storm.
 
JB says his favorite model, CFSv2, has come around to a La Niña look and super long range Euro seasonal, now supports it! JB, you the man! :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
JB says his favorite model, CFSv2, has come around to a La Niña look and super long range Euro seasonal, now supports it! JB, you the man! :)
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What about Cold Neutral? Is that still a possibility
 
NWMSGuy said:
So that's a cancel on Winter for the Southeast?
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Winter cancelling this far out is a bit premature. Saying we will get a big dog is premature. Saying we will roast and torch is premature. Anything JB related can be thrown in the burn pile for all I care at the moment, unless it's a torch forecast. If he forecasts a torch for us, we may or may not be in for something good. I just have a feeling Christmas will be cold this year.
 
We have to wait on Kirk Mellish here in NGA. He has a great track record when it comes to winter predictions. Just ask him!
 
Looks like Siberia experienced an abnormal August snow according to the Siberian Times. I hope this season brings the goods for us in the SE!
 
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accu35 said:
This winter should be great. Even of there were a Lina or Nino, you can still score a winterstorm. Just like the saying it only takes 1, well it took Harvey and Irma.
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Very true! Was searching around online and came across Iowa States archived AFD's from the MEG Office January 21st-22nd 2016 winter storm potential and how they spoke of possible blizzard conditions with that storm. Lol even though it busted terribly just reading that type of forecast over gets me excited for the upcoming season and the possibilities at hand.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Very true! Was searching around online and came across Iowa States archived AFD's from the MEG Office January 21st-22nd 2016 winter storm potential and how they spoke of possible blizzard conditions with that storm. Lol even though it busted terribly just reading that type of forecast over gets me excited for the upcoming season and the possibilities at hand.
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The years i score i stay home, the years i dont i chase LOL!!
 
We always seem to get atleast one legit chance each winter, no matter how bad the winter is. Last years January 6th? Storm still stings lol. Tracked that thing for a week, staying up for the euro. Ended up with zilch.
 
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