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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

Cad Wedge NC said:
Paging Dr. Larry...... QBO/ENSO question on line 1.
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Today MDA wx services (they have never been either hypers or Debbie Downers with regard to winter..so a trustworthy source for objectivity) just happened to put out some interesting tidbits on this today! My own research of SE winter temperatures determined that the overall correlation of -QBO and SE winter temperatures is very weak. Consistent with this, MDA today showed a map indicating a near 0 correlation between QBO
and SE US DJF temperatures (although they also showed a weak correlation of it with a chilly November).

Then when one tries to narrow the results by adding in certain criteria like ENSO together with similar QBO patterns, you introduce the problem of limited sample size.

However, MDA today picked out the 9 closest QBO analogs, which require "negative in early summer reaching sub -10 by fall": 1958, 1962, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1991, 2000, 2009, and 2014 equally weighted. When they averaged these, it came out cool in the SE with -1 to -2.5 for DJF with coolest in the NW portion (such as TN and N AL).

But here's one big problem with this sample: ENSO is ignored. 1958, 1972, 1986, 1991, 2009, and 2014 were all oncoming El Niño years. So, after throwing them out, we're left with a small sample size of only three: 1962-3, 1983-4, and 2000-01. 1962-3 and 1983-4 were both neutral negative (NN) with 1962-3 having been NN for quite awhile before whereas 1983-4 was following strong El Niño. 2000-01 was weak La Niña that followed strong La Niña. None of these 3 had El Niño cancel" like we just had. So, take this fwiw:

- All 3 were cool in Nov.
- In DJF in the SE, 1962-3 was very cold, 1983-4 was cool, and 2000-01 was cool.
- All 3 were coldest in N AL/TN but none were mild anywhere in the SE or even in the Brent territory of TX.
- Dec was the coldest and was cold for all 3. Jan was still chilky for all 3 but not nearly as cold as Dec anomalywise averaged out. Feb varied from frigid to warm.
- if one were to then consider the +PDO of now, 1962-3 and 2000-1 would have to be thrown out thus leaving us just with 1983-4, a sample size of only ONE.

People will make what they want out of this, but hopefully they won't do a JB and start hyping. Remember, these are only QBO analogs with spring/summer ENSO that doesn't match well and we still don't have a great handle on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO. If PDO is also considered, only 1983-4 is left and stat credibility is very low.
 
GaWx said:
Today MDA wx services (they have never been either hypers or Debbie Downers with regard to winter..so a trustworthy source for objectivity) just happened to put out some interesting tidbits on this today! My own research of SE winter temperatures determined that the overall correlation of -QBO and SE winter temperatures is very weak. Consistent with this, MDA today showed a map indicating a near 0 correlation between QBO
and SE US DJF temperatures (although they also showed a weak correlation of it with a chilly November).

Then when one tries to narrow the results by adding in certain criteria like ENSO together with similar QBO patterns, you introduce the problem of limited sample size.

However, MDA today picked out the 9 closest QBO analogs, which require "negative in early summer reaching sub -10 by fall": 1958, 1962, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1991, 2000, 2009, and 2014 equally weighted. When they averaged these, it came out cool in the SE with -1 to -2.5 for DJF with coolest in the NW portion (such as TN and N AL).

But here's one big problem with this sample: ENSO is ignored. 1958, 1972, 1986, 1991, 2009, and 2014 were all oncoming El Niño years. So, after throwing them out, we're left with a small sample size of only three: 1962-3, 1983-4, and 2000-01. 1962-3 and 1983-4 were both neutral negative (NN) with 1962-3 having been NN for quite awhile before whereas 1983-4 was following strong El Niño. 2000-01 was weak La Niña that followed strong La Niña. None of these 3 had El Niño cancel" like we just had. So, take this fwiw:

- All 3 were cool in Nov.
- In DJF in the SE, 1962-3 was very cold, 1983-4 was cool, and 2000-01 was cool.
- All 3 were coldest in N AL/TN but none were mild anywhere in the SE or even in the Brent territory of TX.
- Dec was the coldest and was cold for all 3. Jan was still chilky for all 3 but not nearly as cold as Dec anomalywise averaged out. Feb varied from frigid to warm.
- if one were to then consider the +PDO of now, 1962-3 and 2000-1 would have to be thrown out thus leaving us just with 1983-4, a sample size of only ONE.

People will make what they want out of this, but hopefully they won't do a JB and start hyping. Remember, these are only QBO analogs with spring/summer ENSO that doesn't match well and we still don't have a great handle on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO. If PDO is also considered, only 1983-4 is left and stat credibility is very low.
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Thanks Larry! Nice work.




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SoutheastRidge said:
Looks like another winter without snow in Atlanta. That will be 4 straight years I believe.
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I guess Atlanta had enough snow in January 2014 for the rest of time

ha I moved away fall of 2014 and it hasn't snowed since...:eek:

Meanwhile Dallas has had measurable snow 2 out of 3 winters and a flizzard the other one
 
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December and January of 83/84 was brutally cold here. We did not get above freezing 16 days during this two month period. Lows of zero or below 4 days and a total of 9 inches of snow. February and March were warm over all.
 
MBell said:
Lol. Winter is months away don't give up. I've seen snow the past two winters thankfully up here in cherokee county
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I have as well, and he lives further north of us now, so he should see snow. Atlanta itself is more likely to have snow if we get a pattern that isn't too cold and has moisture. What Atlanta needs is a good overrunning event. Those seem more likely than big lows and aren't as risky.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have as well, and he lives further north of us now, so he should see snow. Atlanta itself is more likely to have snow if we get a pattern that isn't too cold and has moisture. What Atlanta needs is a good overrunning event. Those seem more likely than big lows and aren't as risky.
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Agreed, Overrunning events usually last longer too which is why I like them the best in winter weather setups. I hope that ends up being the theme for this upcoming 2017-2018 Winter season.
 
Of course there will always be these "battlezones" in the south & the SE always has that chance of CAD events vs all snow events but not all the time. I'm saying that towards any outlook that someone puts out, that puts "battlezones" over the south.

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Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
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Not always, but from what I've gleaned from my winter storm reconstructions in the past 120 years or so, this seems to occur more often during El Nino winters... I can find far more examples of -ENSO & NINA winter RDU or northern coastal plain bullseyes or at least (there seems to be) many more cases where there isn't a big gradient in snowfall to the north & west of the Triangle during big dog winter storms in non NINO winters for reasons unbeknownst to me...
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
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January 1966 is an ideal example of what I was talking about wrt the prevalence of Piedmont gradient snowstorms during El Nino winters, wherein RDU usually gets fringed with lighter snows and the primary precipitation type ending up as a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or a cold rain while legitimate snows remain confined north & west of I-85 along a line from about Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville and pts NWward...
Many are quite aware without looking at all of the snowfall data that January 1966 was a cold/snowy month here in NC, but what they don't know is how bad RDU-CLT got screwed over... repeatedly...
cd2606-a000-1500-8005-edbe-f1bc-e9a2-3314.222.19.12.59.prcp.png


It's equivalent to January 2016 two-three times over in a span of just a few weeks.

20160123.accum.gif

The core of the heaviest snow in every storm in January 1966 was either north and/or northwest of the Triangle. While it was very impressive for RDU to get 12" of snow that month, almost all of which came in one storm, it definitely changes your opinion of January 1966 to know there was about 3x that much snow about 50 miles to the northwest of RDU near Roxboro and Yanceyville...
January 15-16 1966 NC Snowmap.png

January 22-23 1966 NC Snowmap.png
January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png

January 29-31 1966 NC Snowmap.png
 
Im not worried at all about this winter. All it takes is one good cold front to meet our strom. I bet next month will be different with modle outlook for winter
 
Storm5 said:
This is the best news of the day so far. If JB is saying warm for us we all know to expect the opposite. I hope he goes full torch for us


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Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.
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That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".
 
ForsythSnow said:
That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".
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We had 3-4" for Christmas 2" plus ice from the January storm and an inch from one in February. Then we had two or three more snow shower days.
 
accu35 said:
Im not worried at all about this winter. All it takes is one good cold front to meet our strom. I bet next month will be different with modle outlook for winter
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going be hard to get a good cold front penetrate that ridge... if that verifies... going be nice battle zone setip for winter severe outbreak chances... to be honest
 
ForsythSnow said:
That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".
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Yes it was!


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tennessee storm said:
going be hard to get a good cold front penetrate that ridge... if that verifies... going be nice battle zone setip for winter severe outbreak chances... to be honest
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Lol, your a severe freak anyways i bet thats what you want. I still dont thing the ridge will be that bad as models point out to be. I still believe this year will end up colder than last year plus better winter storm potential
 
accu35 said:
Lol, your a severe freak anyways i bet thats what you want. I still dont thing the ridge will be that bad as models point out to be. I still believe this year will end up colder than last year plus better winter storm potential
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I agree. It seems that winter forecasts rarely verify from big outlets. Plus, it's a weather model. It's August. What are the chances of will be exactly like that in a month? Also, above average doesn't mean the end of the world.
 
whatalife said:
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In short! JB has canceled winter in the SE. Time to move on to next winter


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This is why using broad based analogs fail so bad. That is not a warm winter even if that is correct. A week or two of decent above average temps can easily skew a winter a half degree above normal.
 
Arcc said:
This is why using broad based analogs fail so bad. That is not a warm winter even if that is correct. A week or two of decent above average temps can easily skew a winter a half degree above normal.
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Yep. I agree w/you 100%.


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