ForsythSnow
Moderator
As is the NAO. The PNA is also going to head back to neutral, but I don't know if we want to be seeing this now. However, the atmosphere is different this year, so perhaps we could be in for some good cold later this month.
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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Yeah I noticed that too but with the NAO I thought it was tougher to predict in the long range. I think someone mentioned how the AO behavior in November can be an indicator down the road as well.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
As is the NAO. The PNA is also going to head back to neutral, but I don't know if we want to be seeing this now. However, the atmosphere is different this year, so perhaps we could be in for some good cold later this month.
olhausen
Member
That would be nice if we could get lake effect snow down south!
Usmeagle2005
Member
Yea, just a weird thought I had, what if we had Great Lake just north of us, what would all of our yearly averages be? How much of difference would it make? Instead of my normal 3-4 inch yearly average in north miss, would it be 30-40? Just because every time a good cold front or cold air blew over wouldn’t it create snow bands? What made me think about it, was last year in Madison miss, they had a snow event off the reservoir there. And I was like what if you had a lake about the size and of Tennessee to the north, how would that change things?
From MDA wx this morning, some food for thought for this winter regarding the amplitude of the MJO:
"Northern Hemispheric and tropical sea surface temperatures feature a similar spatial spread of anomalies as observed a year ago, so we ask if there is anything we learned about the MJO last year that can be applied again for the upcoming winter. One notable factor from last winter was just how strong the MJO was, especially in February when the MJO had an average amplitude of 2.3 in a month which was record warmest by a large 47 GWHDDs. A large part of the second half of January also featured a strong MJO signal and periods of record warmth. Oppositely, colder periods in mid-December and early to mid-January were observed with a weak MJO signal. Taking those considerations, we test whether other years with a similar sea surface temperature regime as is current are consistent in this regard. The maps below highlight the data, which only considers the amplitude of the MJO and not the phase in which the signal resides. These suggest a similar theme with a weaker signal allowing for colder air into the Eastern Two-Thirds while the strong MJO dates were broadly warmer. This is a consideration to be had as we go forward, on top of the phase that the signal resides."
So, this analysis suggests a weaker MJO would likely average out to be colder this winter than a stronger MJO in the SE US and in the E 1/2 of the US in general since there is a somewhat similar SST pattern vs last winter. Independently I several years ago did statistical research that I later presented here suggesting that lower amp MJO (inside circle) in January for all years averaged out since the mid 1970s was significantly colder than MJO outside the circle in the SE US. So, I'd have to agree with this for January at least. Let's see if January plays out this way. I will caution folks that MDA's as well as my research were based on an average of a good number of winters and that any one winter could come out far differently from the average. These kinds of studies don't tell us what will happen but rather they suggest odds.
"Northern Hemispheric and tropical sea surface temperatures feature a similar spatial spread of anomalies as observed a year ago, so we ask if there is anything we learned about the MJO last year that can be applied again for the upcoming winter. One notable factor from last winter was just how strong the MJO was, especially in February when the MJO had an average amplitude of 2.3 in a month which was record warmest by a large 47 GWHDDs. A large part of the second half of January also featured a strong MJO signal and periods of record warmth. Oppositely, colder periods in mid-December and early to mid-January were observed with a weak MJO signal. Taking those considerations, we test whether other years with a similar sea surface temperature regime as is current are consistent in this regard. The maps below highlight the data, which only considers the amplitude of the MJO and not the phase in which the signal resides. These suggest a similar theme with a weaker signal allowing for colder air into the Eastern Two-Thirds while the strong MJO dates were broadly warmer. This is a consideration to be had as we go forward, on top of the phase that the signal resides."
So, this analysis suggests a weaker MJO would likely average out to be colder this winter than a stronger MJO in the SE US and in the E 1/2 of the US in general since there is a somewhat similar SST pattern vs last winter. Independently I several years ago did statistical research that I later presented here suggesting that lower amp MJO (inside circle) in January for all years averaged out since the mid 1970s was significantly colder than MJO outside the circle in the SE US. So, I'd have to agree with this for January at least. Let's see if January plays out this way. I will caution folks that MDA's as well as my research were based on an average of a good number of winters and that any one winter could come out far differently from the average. These kinds of studies don't tell us what will happen but rather they suggest odds.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really encouraging to see this NINA remain decidedly east based this late in the fall, definitely won't hurt us this year and could assist in generating high latitude blocking especially in the early-mid portions of the winter
The human Dr. No is saying maybe.... I'll take that and run with it like I stole it!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And it looks like that may be showing up in the modeling already. I definitely am glad we are seeing cold now, but I as well as many would enjoy a cold December and January for the first time in years. Maybe we can get a good snowstorm or two in there as well.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If it does turn out cold in both months, the last time it really was.....may have been 10/11? I feel like it was decently cold in January a few years ago but it wasn't with both.
whatalife
Moderator
The human Dr. No is saying maybe.... I'll take that and run with it like I stole it!
HAHA!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well, all this aligns with my voodoo dada feelings that we're in for a
'Gradient Winter' in the Southeast Us. Memphis, congrats.
'Gradient Winter' in the Southeast Us. Memphis, congrats.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hopefully having the first freeze in November is a good sign that we'll actually get shots of cold here this winter. I think we are way overdue for a big winter storm. It's been a long time since we've had a storm with more than a couple of inches of snow. I think we'll get a good one with 6 inches or more this winter.
NWMSGuy
Member
Anyone have any ideas/guesses as to when we could possibly start seeing Winter storms in the south this season if at all? Good bit of talk about cold in relation to teleconnections but what would it take in the teleconnections to have cold and an active southern storm track?
pcbjr
Member
Ahhh... love the optimistic plural "storms"... and the realistic "if at all" ...
IMHO -- it is, as always, a crap shoot, but here's guessing late December/early January, if at all ...
NWMSGuy
Member
Haha. Always good to be “carefully” optimistic. Late December early January would be a great time! I’m sure I’ve been through one and don’t remember but would love to see a White Christmas. So much going on in the world I just see a White Christmas as icing on the cake for a perfect and peaceful Christmas/Holiday season. Imagine if most of us on the board could see one, we would be satisfied with this Winter.Ahhh... love the optimistic plural "storms"... and the realistic "if at all" ...
IMHO -- it is, as always, a crap shoot, but here's guessing late December/early January, if at all ...
Jon
Member
:weenie: ....The 00z Euro control has an epic Christmas snowstorm for the SE/MA/NE..this probably goes in banter but I'm so glad we're seeing fantasy storms this early, even if it's the control. I recall last year we were begging for fantasy snowstorms all year.
cd2play
Member
pcbjr
Member
This post is for educational and information purposes; it is not an endorsement of any kind.
DT's final winter forecast is out; it is long, detailed, and with some points worth considering (although his customary editorializing is obviously there).
The forecast is not what most would want or hope to see (your Curmudgeon here included).
Anyway, for perusal, digestion and reflection ...
https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf
DT's final winter forecast is out; it is long, detailed, and with some points worth considering (although his customary editorializing is obviously there).
The forecast is not what most would want or hope to see (your Curmudgeon here included).
Anyway, for perusal, digestion and reflection ...
https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf
Thanks for posting, Phil. Yeah, the bad thing for cold lovers is that he's averaging warmer than normal for the SE US overall as well as for Brent in TX each of D, J, and F. However, the really good news is that he has in Jan near normal for the upper part of the SE (especially Carolinas/TN) and only marginally above normal for most other active posters, which would be MUCH, MUCH colder than the ridiculously warm last Jan for just about everyone. Also, in Feb he is predicting anywhere from marginally above more northern SE to more solid above further south, but even that would not be nearly as warm as the very warm Feb of 2017. Note he has no much above normal anywhere in southern US for any month whereas last J and F were just that.
In summary, though above normal for DJF overall, it isn't much above/gives the SE some semblance of a winter very much unlike last winter overall (other than the one major storm of Jan 6-7 of 2017 for especially parts of NC) and is actually pretty cold looking (normal or colder) in the last halves of D & J, especially J. I'd take that and run in La Niña.
To his credit, he puts out numerous maps and explains his thinking well. He clearly put a ton of time into this. The biggest negative is that he criticizes the consensus forecasts for last winter as being way too cold but doesn't mention that he, himself, was included in that way too cold group and busted very badly with the others that were pretty cold.
Edit: another negative imo is that he doesn't put out a combined DJF map.
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I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and the magnitude is still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10
I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.
That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01
These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:
Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)
Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.
Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)
So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.
Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.
The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.
*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:
a near normal first half of Dec. (in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10
I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.
That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01
These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:
Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)
Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.
Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)
So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.
Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.
The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.
*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:
a near normal first half of Dec. (in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
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pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Good!
We all look at the pool table and line our shots. Some folks may disagree with your analysis, but humbly I for one truly appreciate the thought and effort.
Here's hoping you are spot on - until late Jan!
Then we'll need an 1899 surprise (gotta happen again sometime ...
)In any event, thanks so much for the time, thought and effort!
Best!
Phil
LetItSnow
Member
Actually the biggest negative is he's a complete donkey's-hole; and probably isn't even broken clock right..
Larry your research and analysis is 2nd to none, outstanding work and here's to hoping you are spot on! Who knows we may just squeeze a white Christmas out of this mess
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Good work my friend.... You are spot on with your research. Front-loaded winter seems likely. Now, let's keep the Nina from getting out of hand.
Judah Cohen hath spoken: http://amp.wcvb.com/article/seasonal-forecast-guru-buckle-up-for-a-rollercoaster-winter/13821756
think the Pacific is gonna pwn this Winter even with good indices tidings... No weather type is setting in for longer than 4-5 days. Baby ripples beat Mondo Blocks.
dsaur
Member
We get lake effect down here on the rare occasion. If the winds across the Great Lakes are right, and it's cold enough for it to reach the ground. Mostly in the mtns though. I remember one year the snow in Buffalo was over the telephone poles, lol. I'd like to see that at least once down here. Robert, I think, had a pic of snow up to near the gutters of his house in NC. That's be close
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I have a feeling this winter is going to be a lot of back and forth instead of a certain type of pattern holding on for a long time. I think we'll end up benefiting from that as a lot of energy will be flying around. I have a good feeling about getting some snow in December here.
Pioneer model cold bust SE US.
For the SE US: Whereas his DJF averaged out wasn't bad, Allan's monthlies were a bust as he had Dec and Jan much too warm and Feb much too cold. His generalized below normal snowfall for the SE was mainly a bust.
Larry Cosgrove in the SE US: did ok for DJF. Monthlies: too warm Dec and way too warm Jan. Not warm enough Feb. Well below normal snowfall for SE was mainly a bust though he did well in the SC midlands and in FL.
Wow, Brick kind of nailed it with his back and forth as well as some snow in Dec in RDU area! Dang!
Bust. DJF averaged mild in ATL thanks to the record warm Feb.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I don't understand why he went warm in the SE US in December and was cold in the east in February that rarely happens in this ENSO base state for a reason
Nice call for Webb!
Brick nailed the big RDU snow, too!
Self critique: 1st half Dec good with near normal overall SE. 2nd half Dec too cold since it was pretty close to normal, not cold. Jan 1-15: good with the cold. 1/16-2/28 overall good except warmth started ~4 days later than 1/16 and I had no idea there'd be record warmth in Feb.
I didn't really make an overall wintry precip forecast. I just said 12/16-1/15 best shot at widespread sig. SE winter storm. Only one of the 3 big SE storms was during then though the historic SE coastal was.
Overall grade: B. I'm content.
Edit: another reason not higher than B is because I called for near normal DJF (between -2 and +2) and due to the record warm Feb, it was nearly +4 at KATL and warmer than normal in much of the SE though ti was near normal at RDU and at some other more northern locations.
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pcbjr
Member
Larry,
You beat the pants off of most, and especialy one old Curmudgeon (yours truly).
Great job!
A- is more like it!
Best!
Phil
You're too kind, Phil. Another reason I didn't go higher than B is because I called for a near normal DJF (between -2 and +2). But due to the record warm Feb, it was nearly +4 at KATL for DJF and was warmer than normal in much of the SE though it was near normal at RDU and at some other more northern locations. SAV was a little warmer than +2.