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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

Shawn said:
Test

I think there is confusion here.

Yes, the TOR threat is real and can happen down your way. It's just parameters may not seem as "intense" as yesterday's soundings. Doesn't mean we won't have severe weather.

For example, here in CAE the cape and shear line up better than they did yesterday, but the PDS signature is not nearly as high. It only takes one tornado...
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Agreed. The threat is definitely there. No doubt. I was saying the parameters here near me seem a little off in timing for them to work in tandem. The shear increases but the Cape decreases. Your way they shoukd.line up better for sure. Shawn is going to see a nice area of both working together, but not as strong as your way
 
Ok for the worth of it... Forbes has TorCon of 9 for S GA and N Fl... thinking this is highest since 4/27/11...
Using this just as a reference to the threat..
 
I truly wish I had some substance to contribute here, but severe is not a topic I'm very conversant about (other than to say emphatically I hate being in it!).
Anyway - due south sustained at 20 with gusts to 35; very low streaking clouds and a Jan temp of 80º. Seems like a recipe for a potentially unpleasant afternoon.
This AM about 30 miles north of me, right at I-10 and north, local radar was showing T-Warnings extending from 1-10 into south GA.
Right now it looks like the rain has moved about 40 miles north and the warnings are all Severe TS.
Anyway - if something pops down this way and if it warrants, I'll do a PBP, but I'm really hoping for all of us in the SE that this whole thing just turns out to be a big forecast bust going through the rest of the day!
 
OMG the severe storm heading my way is producing large hail and over 17in of rain an hr. Wow
 
PDS tornado watch being issued soon
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I'm in Clarke co Alabama, now there saying the storm is producing 19.14 in hr where the purple shading are. Wow
 
Pretty impressive airmass about to roll into the panhandle, SE Al, S Ga. I do wonder if that area of storms along and north of I10 may keep things from really destabilizing. Going to be watching the SPC meso page and metar obs over the next few hours.
 
Hail cover ground just to the west of me over 1in hail
 
SD said:
PDS tornado watch being issued soon
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I think that will be the "sweet" spot if you will today. I'm having a little more doubts about it to the north of that. Severe threat yes, but that area looks like the best intersection of Cape and shear
 
We've had two severe thunderstorm warnings since yesterday along with more than 4" of rain in the area so far this weekend with rain continuing!
 
^Holy wow, that map looks ominous! That's insane and scary looking. What does the 30% tornado risk actually mean? I assume it means the chance for a tornado within a certain number of miles of one's location. Anyone know for sure?
 
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