gawxnative
Member
Some of the highest probalilities across the board I ve seen since 2011...
Wow, just outside of that watch. That is a large area that may expand north later in a tornado watch or just a severe thunderstorm watch.PDS tornado watch out and includes part of Atlanta Metro...
Some of the highest probalilities across the board I ve seen since 2011...
Does anyone know what those probabilities (like 30%) mean? 30% chance of what exactly? I'm assuming it is more than just a 30% chance for a tornado within that large area but have seen nothing about what the %'s actually mean. Does anyone here know?
Edit: here's an interesting link I just found about PDS watches:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/dean/pdswatch.pdf
About 7% of tornado watches are PDS types.
As an example, if you have a 15% probability for tornadoes, this means you have a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. This may seem like a low number, but a tornado is very uncommon at any one location. Normally, your chances of getting hit by a tornado or other severe weather are small, purely based on statistical average. Let's say you have a 1% statistical (climatology) history of tornadoes within 25 miles on this day, which still is large. Having a 15% probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously. The probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail also have the same meaning as they do for tornadoes, but typically will be higher numbers than for tornadoes, since they are much more common.
Sometimes, a black hatched area will be overlaid with the severe probabilities. Black hatching means a 10% or higher probability for significant severe events within 25 miles of any point. "Significant" is defined as: tornadoes rated EF2 or greater, thunderstorm wind gusts of hurricane force (74 mph) or higher, or hail 2 inches or larger in diameter.
Within 25 miles of any point in that area and we are hatched so I think you add 10% more on that^Holy wow, that map looks ominous! That's insane and scary looking. What does the 30% tornado risk actually mean? I assume it means the chance for a tornado within a certain number of miles of one's location. Anyone know for sure?
I don't see any thing about Tornado Watch #21 being a PDS. Looks run-of-the-mill to me.I wonder why the PDS all the way in Atlanta today ??
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There is a big football game going on... and it's better to alert people and trim back than to not have it up and kick themselves later.I wonder why the PDS all the way in Atlanta today ??
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Forbes said it's been quite a few years since he's had to use a 9.I have never seen a 9 on the TORCON before.