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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

StoneMtnWx said:
PDS tornado watch out and includes part of Atlanta Metro...
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That watch area is WAY too far north IMO. Better safe than sorry I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt we see a single TOR north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta.
 
From Meteorologist Mike Dross on Twitter:

Mike Dross ‏@MikeWDross 5m5 minutes ago
It's beginning. A once in a 50 year situation unfolding for Northern Florida and South Georgia.These supercells are capable of incredible destruction
 
DadOfJax said:
That watch area is WAY too far north IMO. Better safe than sorry I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt we see a single TOR north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta.
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The HRRR is showing robust dynamics moving towards metro Atlanta in association with the cluster of storms around the meso lo near Montgomery AL


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I'm hoping that this area doesn't see anything bad based on steady rains continuing and, therefore, lack of sunshine and warming. If it can rain another two hours or so, I'd feel even better.
 
GaWx said:
I'm hoping that this area doesn't see anything bad based on steady rains continuing and, therefore, lack of sunshine and warming. If it can rain another two hours or so, I'd feel even better.
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Ditto from your old stomping grounds! - Phil
 
DadOfJax said:
That watch area is WAY too far north IMO. Better safe than sorry I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt we see a single TOR north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta.
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No, it's not too far north. SPC is putting north GA under a slight chance of severe weather but that doesn't mean that the tornado chance is at 0. Some thunder cells will make it above I-20.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
No, it's not too far north. SPC is putting north GA under a slight chance of severe weather but that doesn't mean that the tornado chance is at 0. Some thunder cells will make it above I-20.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
No, it's not too far north. SPC is putting north GA under a slight chance of severe weather but that doesn't mean that the tornado chance is at 0. Some thunder cells will make it above I-20.

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Do you even know the criteria to warrant a PDS TOR Watch?
 
Augusta may not even see a severe storm if it keeps raining/stays cloudy, just thunderstorms. But it looks like there's going to be a break soon, just gotta hope it stays cloudy and the sun doesn't peak out. Because if it does peak out, what I'm seeing downstream does not look good.

The storms headed toward Atlanta look healthy and could produce a severe storm or two.
 
The past 2 hours have been more like a June tropical storm than anything down here - squalls and fine misty slanted rain, clears and goes calm, wash, rinse, repeat - and the temp is almost equivalent (almost).
 
The surface low heading northward along with the warm front will act to drag the warm sector northward. It's only going to get so far north but there are plenty of dynamics available to overcome poor low level instability

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SD said:
The surface low heading northward along with the warm front will act to drag the warm sector northward. It's only going to get so far north but there are plenty of dynamics available to overcome poor low level instability

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I'm seeing tor warned cells in "not so high cape" areas and temps not out of the mid 60s.
 
That broken line of HP supercells is eerily reminiscent of 04/27/11
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Augusta may not even see a severe storm if it keeps raining/stays cloudy, just thunderstorms. But it looks like there's going to be a break soon, just gotta hope it stays cloudy and the sun doesn't peak out. Because if it does peak out, what I'm seeing downstream does not look good.

The storms headed toward Atlanta look healthy and could produce a severe storm or two.
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Storms are firing up on the west side of Atlanta.
 
Shawn said:
I'm seeing tor warned cells in "not so high cape" areas and temps not out of the mid 60s.
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Y'all have a very good point! The shear should really increase soon and that should help them overcome the lower instability.
 
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