Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

[Bama Ravens]

Since this is already looking to be a robust threat, even 5-6 days out, I figured that it was time for a thread dedicated to the threat.

Day 6 Convective Outlook:

Graphic from BMX:

From the BMX forecast discussion:

Threat 2 could potentially be a high impact event, but there still
remains some model trend issues and timing. Models are trending a
bit farther north, which puts us in the warm sector again. This
system is quite a bit stronger, with a deepening surface low into
the 990mb range. Once again, shear/instability/cold air
aloft/lapse rates all point to a severe potential.

 

[Storm5]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Since this is already looking to be a robust threat, even 5-6 days out, I figured that it was time for a thread dedicated to the threat.

Day 6 Convective Outlook:

Graphic from BMX:

From the BMX forecast discussion:

Threat 2 could potentially be a high impact event, but there still
remains some model trend issues and timing. Models are trending a
bit farther north, which puts us in the warm sector again. This
system is quite a bit stronger, with a deepening surface low into
the 990mb range. Once again, shear/instability/cold air
aloft/lapse rates all point to a severe potential.

wow that's fairly agressive from kbmx being 5-6 days out. Speaks volumes

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[SD]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Since this is already looking to be a robust threat, even 5-6 days out, I figured that it was time for a thread dedicated to the threat.

Day 6 Convective Outlook:

Graphic from BMX:

From the BMX forecast discussion:

Threat 2 could potentially be a high impact event, but there still
remains some model trend issues and timing. Models are trending a
bit farther north, which puts us in the warm sector again. This
system is quite a bit stronger, with a deepening surface low into
the 990mb range. Once again, shear/instability/cold air
aloft/lapse rates all point to a severe potential.

wow that's fairly agressive from kbmx being 5-6 days out. Speaks volumes

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I still wonder about the system Friday-Saturday possibly playing a role in keeping this thing in check. I doubt it happens, 990-995 low near Memphis means trouble for someone in the SE.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

 

[Brick Tamland]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

RAH talking about storms for Sunday and Monday. Have to keep an eye out. The active pattern could be good for snow down the road. There is a bit of truth to the wives tale about thunder in winter.

 

[SD]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

RAH talking about storms for Sunday and Monday. Have to keep an eye out. The active pattern could be good for snow down the road. There is a bit of truth to the wives tale about thunder in winter.

I'm not sure how things are going to go for our area. Looks like a high shear low cape scenario.

 

[stormcentral]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL TN-3 GA-4. First big severe event of 2017?

 

[Bama Ravens]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

I have gone ahead and added Thursday (1/19) to the title of this thread as there is also a limited severe weather risk for some areas that day. It isn't worth a new thread, and since the two threats are so close together, it makes sense to put them together.

 

[ForsythSnow]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL 3- TN & GA. First big severe event of 2017?

For him to be saying that at this time probably means that we will be looking at our first outbreak indeed. Probably will adjust higher in values and more localized as we get closer.

 

[stormcentral]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

 

[Flo]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL TN-3 GA-4. First big severe event of 2017?

Please translate.....

 

[Tarheel1]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL TN-3 GA-4. First big severe event of 2017?

Please translate.....

Torcon of 3 or 4, basically is the percentage / liklihood of a tornado within a 50 mile radius of a certain point! Ex.- if ATL has a torcon of 4, that's a 40% chance of a tornado, within a 50 mile radius of ATL

 

[Shawn]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL TN-3 GA-4. First big severe event of 2017?

Please translate.....

Dr. Forbes is respected and he's already throwing potential numbers out there.
Sadly, it's easier to predict severe weather in the south than the wintry variety so people are starting to take notice of a potential severe outbreak.
The map you are looking at in the post you quoted is ominous for this time of the year and would support severe weather.

In other words, while we aren't under a "threat" here right now in SC, AL is.

 

[Flo]

RE: Severe Weather Threat 1/21 - 1/22

Ruh oh shaggy. Greg Forbes has torcon values as of now 4-AL TN-3 GA-4. First big severe event of 2017?

Please translate.....

Dr. Forbes is respected and he's already throwing potential numbers out there.
Sadly, it's easier to predict severe weather in the south than the wintry variety so people are starting to take notice of a potential severe outbreak.
The map you are looking at in the post you quoted is ominous for this time of the year and would support severe weather.

I realized after I replied this wasn't the winter discussion thread. Severe weather doesnt excite me. I want snow or sun.

 

[gawxnative]

Well a thought gang... With this event as now forcast Impacting AL/GA on Sunday. Reach out to friends/family etc. and advise them to have a way to get warnings... (Especially since there some kind of Pro Football thing going on tht may occupy some minds in the ATL area)...

 

[stormcentral]

Im already pushing notice out there on my facebook pages, and letting friends and family in states around me know. At this time this threat looks significant for MS, AL, TN & GA. Awaiting our severe exps to chime in.

 

[stormcentral]

Where is Fred, SD, Storm5 & Stormlover? Lol

 

[WeatherLC]

 

[Bama Ravens]

Where is Fred, SD, Storm5 & Stormlover? Lol

SD and Storm5 are here. Fred and Stormlover are over on the new Talkweather.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Thoughts on the weekend event (threat #2) from BMX this afternoon:

Threat 2 over the weekend still has some disagreement between the
models this time out, but certainly has the potential for some
significant impacts. The GFS has better continuity than the ECMWF
this run, as the ECMWF has trended back toward solutions a few
days ago. The GFS is picking up on several impulses riding through
the flow and the potential of severe storms Saturday, Saturday
night, and Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit more limited to Saturday
night and Sunday. The flow suggest that there will be additional
impulses and am leaning toward the GFS here. Additionally, the GFS
parameters are better for a longer period. ECMWF would suggest a
better risk south. Therefore, we will keep the severe threat going
for the entire area both Saturday and Sunday and not focus
specifically on these parameters. The synoptic pattern is
favorable and the mesoscale will have impacts. Analogues have
indications that the pattern is very conducive to severe storms.
Stay tuned.