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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

Shawn said:
It looked better for this part, but it's a crap shoot for the most part as usual. Us over here in GA, SC, NC kinda have to go with the flow. I think we aren't seeing a big SPC jump because things are so chaotic.

Down your way, I expect a much higher chance. As you get up this way, I'm not sold on it.

With that said, it's still a possibility of a much bigger event here than I originally thought tomorrow afternoon.
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Very good point. if the 4km nam is right all of us are in play in those areas.
 
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deltadog03 said:
To add to that....HRRR and 4KM nam are really painting a scary picture for the mid day to afternoon for around here and points west and East to NE. The surge of moisture will be really good, plus the 850 jet gets really going. HRRR and 4KM developing a NICE 850mb low just to my NW and pulling in some 70-75kt winds at 5000 feet....I would bet those are def. going to be rooted in the BL and prob have a good chance to contain some nasty storms and maybe a few strong tornadoes.
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Aren't you in starkville?
 
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Storm5 said:
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Yep, just saw that, great news
 
Storm5 said:
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Looks like that MCS of elevated convection will seal the deal.

Warm front is still on the panhandle being stopped by east winds. This is a good example of why more backed wind flow can bother events.
 
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
 
deltadog03 said:
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
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Do you think the storms training over south Alabama earlier this evening also had an effect?
 
deltadog03 said:
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
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Man, I am not sure the sun will come out out here in CAE with the way things are heading.
 
Shawn said:
Man, I am not sure the sun will come out out here in CAE with the way things are heading.
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Very true...I do think the tornado threat is lower for yall up there than here, but still think its possible for sure.
 
Wow. That SVR warning in B'ham was legit! Set off a car alarm down the street somehow. Was the highest gust at my house in several years.
 
I have seen a clear shift in bringing in a better surge of rich TD's and higher cape numbers on the HRRR again. Looks like the model is coming in stronger with that again. It had backed off a bunch late last night. 6z 4KM NAM would just be awful if somehow right. by around midday I have EHI up over 2.5 to 3 starting at lunch and max out at around 4pm to over 10!! There appears to be another push of really rich moisture on the latest runs...
 
I'm currently sitting here under a tornado warning, but the worst of the storm is seemingly a few miles north of me in rural Lowndes County. Sadly, four people apparently lost their lives last night in my area (two in Brooks County, two in Berrien County) to the storms.
 
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