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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

SD said:
Yeah I think that dews will recover after this convective surge. Maybe I'm crazy but I think tomorrow morning could be just as if not more active than tonight

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I think that maybe the lower dewpoints here in North Georgia may spare us from the worst of the tornadic potential, with the NAM keeping the dewpoints below 60. The dewpoints rapidly rise to about 70 around Atlanta.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
I think that maybe the lower dewpoints here in North Georgia may spare us from the worst of the tornadic potential, with the NAM keeping the dewpoints below 60. The dewpoints rapidly rise to about 70 around Atlanta.
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Yeah N Ga may just miss out on the tornadoes but there is enough instability over the inversion for elevated supercells with wind and hail

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SD said:
Yeah N Ga may just miss out on the tornadoes but there is enough instability over the inversion for elevated supercells with wind and hail

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That is what I have been feeling would be our higher potential. The 4km NAM has hinted at it for a few runs.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That is what I have been feeling would be our higher potential. The 4km NAM has hinted at it for a few runs.
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Yep and it's most aggressive with instability so if it's showing elevated storms I'm not sure in would expect much to get rooted to the sfc

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SD said:
Yeah I think that dews will recover after this convective surge. Maybe I'm crazy but I think tomorrow morning could be just as if not more active than tonight
I could see that too. The shear could overcome for sure in am the afternoon could be awful tho
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I think the HRRR and 4km nam just really want to drive in convection in multiple rounds for sure. Am stuff will have lower cape and higher shear than this am. Afternoon will be excellent cape and high shear no doubt
 
The nam bombing the sfc low west really raises my concern for Bama, Ga and the Carolinas tomorrow
 
deltadog03 said:
I think the HRRR and 4km nam just really want to drive in convection in multiple rounds for sure. Am stuff will have lower cape and higher shear than this am. Afternoon will be excellent cape and high shear no doubt
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I'm a bit confused about the timing and the number of rounds. When will Montgomery be clear of the severe weather?
 
RollTide18 said:
I'm a bit confused about the timing and the number of rounds. When will Montgomery be clear of the severe weather?
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Tomorrow evening. Once this area clears tonight there will be one more tomorrow

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NAM really cuts back on SB cape values tomorrow so I do wonder if we will have a bunch of elevated supercells
 
deltadog03 said:
I think the HRRR and 4km nam just really want to drive in convection in multiple rounds for sure. Am stuff will have lower cape and higher shear than this am. Afternoon will be excellent cape and high shear no doubt
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So the severe won't be as bad as tomorrow afternoon?
 
SD said:
NAM really cuts back on SB cape values tomorrow so I do wonder if we will have a bunch of elevated supercells
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Ya it's foing to be interesting to see how fast we do recover. Tomorrow afternoon could be worse. We shall see
 
F-5 said:
Nasty hook on the cell just east of Jackson, MS
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deltadog03 said:
Ya it's foing to be interesting to see how fast we do recover. Tomorrow afternoon could be worse. We shall see
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Yep if storms are surface based all hell will break loose. If they aren't it'll be a big wind damage hail day

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