Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22
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The models are showing another line of storms developing just to your west during the morning and rolling across the panhandle asv the surface low approaches
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There is more cape over MS than AL currently those storms are really maximizing what they have to work with. If the atmosphere can't recover over Al it'll be difficult for them to keep rolling along
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I looked at all my available Mesoscale models and see a line developing, but it is not indicated to be strong towards the Big Bend/G'ville/Jax corridor on any model I see, and it's pretty skinny, which looks more like a quick. minor run-of-the-mill N FL frontal passage than a major weather producer.
That's where I'm at a loss - what would drive severe in here tomorrow if everything is basically moving NE and the models aren't showing it? NWS over-caution? Me missing some data somewhere? Feel free to educate me on this topic - that's why I'm asking, after all! I'll trade you back on something I'm conversant with when the time arrives!
Here is a sounding from the 4k NAM tomorrow at 18z from the Panhandle...as you can see the environment is conducive for a line of supercells. You also have 850mb winds of between 35-50kt so it will be easy for any convection to transfer these winds to the surface and cause widespread wind damage even if you had a skinny line. Finally the WBZ level is pretty low so it wouldn't be shocking for there to be some large hail in intense convection.
The driving force behind all of this is the approach of a strong LLJ, a jet streak aloft, and the potential for a new surface low to develop near Mobile and move north northeastward
Gotcha and Thanks!Here is a sounding from the 4k NAM tomorrow at 18z from the Panhandle...as you can see the environment is conducive for a line of supercells. You also have 850mb winds of between 35-50kt so it will be easy for any convection to transfer these winds to the surface and cause widespread wind damage even if you had a skinny line. Finally the WBZ level is pretty low so it wouldn't be shocking for there to be some large hail in intense convection.
The driving force behind all of this is the approach of a strong LLJ, a jet streak aloft, and the potential for a new surface low to develop near Mobile and move north northeastward
SB Cape is trying to increase across southern Al over the last hour or so but so far the recover has been pretty meh
Yes it did - winter and 'Canes I'll talk about all night with a bit of certainty and knowledge - severe is not something I've learned. Your plots are a bit N and W of me but they do give me some data and some additional understanding. Thanks! That's what places like this are really for - learning - not ego fluffing and consequent bashing as other places tend to promote!
Lots of severe tstorm warnings out there right now. Stay safe tonight folks
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Brick Tamland
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From WRAL' s Greg Fishel.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL UPDATE
10pm surface data shows a nearly stationery front positioned across our far southern counties. Where this boundary lies about 24 hours from now will make all the difference as to whether or not parts of the viewing area experience a significant severe weather outbreak late Sunday into Sunday night. Right now, there is no mechanism to transform this boundary into a northward advancing warm front. And another batch of widespread rain crossing the area tomorrow morning may serve to reinforce the shallow cold air which is currently in place. Later tomorrow, low pressure will slowly intensify to our south and west. This low will attempt to finally bring the warmer air northward, but I'm not convinced, at least not yet that it will be able to pull this off. If the low was intensifying rapidly, I would be more concerned, but there is no indication at this point that rapid intensification is likely. So for now, I would be most concerned if I lived in Laurinburg, Fayetteville, Lumberton, Clinton, and perhaps Goldsboro.. I would be less concerned in the Triangle as well as the Rocky Mount/Wilson area, and I would have no concern if I lived up near the Virginia border. Anybody could hear thunder tomorrow, as there will be instability present aloft, but with regard to low level instability, that should be confined to our far southern counties. As you know, the atmosphere is a dynamic and ever changing system, so we will continue to watch this situation carefully. I'll update again in the morning.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL UPDATE
10pm surface data shows a nearly stationery front positioned across our far southern counties. Where this boundary lies about 24 hours from now will make all the difference as to whether or not parts of the viewing area experience a significant severe weather outbreak late Sunday into Sunday night. Right now, there is no mechanism to transform this boundary into a northward advancing warm front. And another batch of widespread rain crossing the area tomorrow morning may serve to reinforce the shallow cold air which is currently in place. Later tomorrow, low pressure will slowly intensify to our south and west. This low will attempt to finally bring the warmer air northward, but I'm not convinced, at least not yet that it will be able to pull this off. If the low was intensifying rapidly, I would be more concerned, but there is no indication at this point that rapid intensification is likely. So for now, I would be most concerned if I lived in Laurinburg, Fayetteville, Lumberton, Clinton, and perhaps Goldsboro.. I would be less concerned in the Triangle as well as the Rocky Mount/Wilson area, and I would have no concern if I lived up near the Virginia border. Anybody could hear thunder tomorrow, as there will be instability present aloft, but with regard to low level instability, that should be confined to our far southern counties. As you know, the atmosphere is a dynamic and ever changing system, so we will continue to watch this situation carefully. I'll update again in the morning.
I think this first round tonight into the am will not be as strong as earlier todsy. We have not recovered as fast as models said so. I think the threat is there, but I think the main show might wait until a bit later in the morning to early afternoon as we really destabilize and see the shear pick up. The only fly in the ointment will be the high shear and 850 jet punching in with this first batch.
INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE / TORNADO RISK FOR CNTRL AND WST BAMA
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0101.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0101.html
Can't disagree. My concern is elevated supercells with large hail and damaging winds given the low wbz and roaring llj
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I will say after seeing the HRRR continue to back off a little on the surge of cape/good TD....I wonder if the tornado threat will be a little less and we see more wind/hail issues....I am not saying for sure that will happen, but this first batch has VERY little cape....the shear will bump up for sure, so some interesting things shaping up.
To add to that....HRRR and 4KM nam are really painting a scary picture for the mid day to afternoon for around here and points west and East to NE. The surge of moisture will be really good, plus the 850 jet gets really going. HRRR and 4KM developing a NICE 850mb low just to my NW and pulling in some 70-75kt winds at 5000 feet....I would bet those are def. going to be rooted in the BL and prob have a good chance to contain some nasty storms and maybe a few strong tornadoes.
It looked better for this part, but it's a crap shoot for the most part as usual. Us over here in GA, SC, NC kinda have to go with the flow. I think we aren't seeing a big SPC jump because things are so chaotic.
Down your way, I expect a much higher chance. As you get up this way, I'm not sold on it.
With that said, it's still a possibility of a much bigger event here than I originally thought tomorrow afternoon.