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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

Shawn said:
It looked better for this part, but it's a crap shoot for the most part as usual. Us over here in GA, SC, NC kinda have to go with the flow. I think we aren't seeing a big SPC jump because things are so chaotic.

Down your way, I expect a much higher chance. As you get up this way, I'm not sold on it.

With that said, it's still a possibility of a much bigger event here than I originally thought tomorrow afternoon.
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Very good point. if the 4km nam is right all of us are in play in those areas.
 
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deltadog03 said:
To add to that....HRRR and 4KM nam are really painting a scary picture for the mid day to afternoon for around here and points west and East to NE. The surge of moisture will be really good, plus the 850 jet gets really going. HRRR and 4KM developing a NICE 850mb low just to my NW and pulling in some 70-75kt winds at 5000 feet....I would bet those are def. going to be rooted in the BL and prob have a good chance to contain some nasty storms and maybe a few strong tornadoes.
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Aren't you in starkville?
 
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Storm5 said:
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Yep, just saw that, great news
 
Storm5 said:
NWS in Birmingham downgrading the severe threat overnight for a large portion of its CWA . New graphics coming soon.

Never really recovered from the morning storms . Wonder how that plays out tomorrow afternoon

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Looks like that MCS of elevated convection will seal the deal.

Warm front is still on the panhandle being stopped by east winds. This is a good example of why more backed wind flow can bother events.
 
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
 
deltadog03 said:
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
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Do you think the storms training over south Alabama earlier this evening also had an effect?
 
deltadog03 said:
Ya, this def. got disruppted by the convection sat midday. It will still remain to be seen how much we can push that good quality moisture northward later today. IF** it can, I could see the MDT easily verifying. I think I-20 corridor its possible for a tornado or 2, but wind and some hail threats seem to be def. possible. I think CAE to CHS good chance of seeing severe and prob up into the RAH area later in the day.
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Man, I am not sure the sun will come out out here in CAE with the way things are heading.
 
Shawn said:
Man, I am not sure the sun will come out out here in CAE with the way things are heading.
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Very true...I do think the tornado threat is lower for yall up there than here, but still think its possible for sure.
 
Wow. That SVR warning in B'ham was legit! Set off a car alarm down the street somehow. Was the highest gust at my house in several years.
 
I have seen a clear shift in bringing in a better surge of rich TD's and higher cape numbers on the HRRR again. Looks like the model is coming in stronger with that again. It had backed off a bunch late last night. 6z 4KM NAM would just be awful if somehow right. by around midday I have EHI up over 2.5 to 3 starting at lunch and max out at around 4pm to over 10!! There appears to be another push of really rich moisture on the latest runs...
 
I'm currently sitting here under a tornado warning, but the worst of the storm is seemingly a few miles north of me in rural Lowndes County. Sadly, four people apparently lost their lives last night in my area (two in Brooks County, two in Berrien County) to the storms.
 
WeatherDawg87 said:
I'm currently sitting here under a tornado warning, but the worst of the storm is seemingly a few miles north of me in rural Lowndes County. Sadly, four people apparently lost their lives last night in my area (two in Brooks County, two in Berrien County) to the storms.
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Where are you located Weatherdawg? My mama is in Valdosta, scared to death and no power? Doesn't even look like its hit there yet according to TWC radar?
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Where are you located Weatherdawg? My mama is in Valdosta, scared to death and no power? Doesn't even look like its hit there yet according to TWC radar?
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I'm on the NW side of Valdosta and the storm just passed over us. We took a hard beating with both wind and rain, but the worst of it appears to have hit up towards the Hahira/Moody AFB area.
 
WeatherDawg87 said:
I'm on the NW side of Valdosta and the storm just passed over us. We took a hard beating with both wind and rain, but the worst of it appears to have hit up towards the Hahira/Moody AFB area.
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Thanks. That is about where she is too but other family in Hahira. Yikes! It is so bad that TWC had all of ya'll just in a watch and never changed to warning...dangerous. Thnx for your info
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Thanks. That is about where she is too but other family in Hahira. Yikes! It is so bad that TWC had all of ya'll just in a watch and never changed to warning...dangerous. Thnx for your info
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We actually went under a warning with the current storm, but the Thomas/Brooks/Cook/Berrien counties storm that produced the fatalities apparently occurred around 4 AM.
 
I feel that us here in Charleston SC should be upgraded to HIGH RISK also because looking @ recent parameters, we going to have everything in place maybe more than south Georgia for tornadoes, What you guys think?????
 
WeatherDawg87 said:
We actually went under a warning with the current storm, but the Thomas/Brooks/Cook/Berrien counties storm that produced the fatalities apparently occurred around 4 AM.
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I never saw any warnings. Im in NE Ga trying to keep them informed because they only watch tv and no tv now. Looks like more could be coming maybe. I will keep watching here for any info ya"ll may have. Stay safe and thanks.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I feel that us here in Charleston SC should be upgraded to HIGH RISK also because looking @ recent parameters, we going to have everything in place maybe more than south Georgia for tornadoes, What you guys think?????
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I can't honestly say as I am not good with all the differences down there with the ocean and stuff. One would assume you'd be under the gun regardless of High risk or not though looking at HRRR & NAM modeling this morning.

Speaking of the NAM, the 4KM NAM makes more sense around the CAE area. It's still a TOR threat, but it's not crazy. CAPE has raised a bit and the other parameters make sense for a 15% TOR risk/30% MOD where they have it. I would be surprised if they don't issue a TOR Watch later today for the "3rd wave" to roll around 5-7PM or so. The last HRRR run seems to keep the threat South of CAE for the most part.

Now Southern GA is another problem. Whew! Even the HRRR gets em as of the last run.
 
Well one statement in the Day 1 is also troubling ...the reference that these cells will be "fast moving" .. With a LLJ up to 130kts. But as far as S GA/N FL at least this will be a "daylight" event.
 
Shawn said:
I can't honestly say as I am not good with all the differences down there with the ocean and stuff. One would assume you'd be under the gun regardless of High risk or not though looking at HRRR & NAM modeling this morning.

Speaking of the NAM, the 4KM NAM makes more sense around the CAE area. It's still a TOR threat, but it's not crazy. CAPE has raised a bit and the other parameters make sense for a 15% TOR risk/30% MOD where they have it. I would be surprised if they don't issue a TOR Watch later today for the "3rd wave" to roll around 5-7PM or so. The last HRRR run seems to keep the threat South of CAE for the most part.

Now Southern GA is another problem. Whew! Even the HRRR gets em as of the last run.
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Getting reports from family around Hahira/Adel/Valdosta and.... Not good. Not good. Looks to keep coming too?
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Getting reports from family around Hahira/Adel/Valdosta and.... Not good. Not good. Looks to keep coming too?
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I think you will see a much higher threat down in Southern GA later today than this morning. Currently 6 TOR warnings for this early btw.
 
Shawn said:
I think you will see a much higher threat down in Southern GA later today than this morning. Currently 6 TOR warnings for this early btw.
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Geez!! I have family from Macon down to Valdosta so I am keeping a watch. Certainly not good especially for folks like my mama that is not getting info. She doesn't know how to look at phone for such. Thanks to all ya"ll and love this site. Watching in NE Ga for later too.
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Geez!! I have family from Macon down to Valdosta so I am keeping a watch. Certainly not good especially for folks like my mama that is not getting info. She doesn't know how to look at phone for such. Thanks to all ya"ll and love this site. Watching in NE Ga for later too.
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We just had another tornado warned cell pass over Valdosta, but I didn't sustain any damage. I've heard that certain sections of the city are without power.
 
I'm hearing reports from friends down in the Lake Park area that apparently they just took a beating with the most recent storm.
 
New tornado watch coming for South bama and the FL panhandle

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