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Tropical TS Fred

The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
 
The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
I would double down and say grace reaches major status at some point once it departs the big islands
 
The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
I can tell you from speaking to family that lives in Panama City last night, people down there had absolutely no idea that they could be dealing with anything more than a moderate to strong tropical storm today. Many folks down there are gonna be very surprised today.
 
only feasible tornado chasing would be i77 Charlotte to mount airy or i40 Statesville to Asheville. But setup is for rain wrapped tornadoes that won’t be seen and likely EF1 or weaker.
 
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care
It still looks ugly and ingesting dry air from the south. Also looks to be jogging a little W of due N. And does it really matter if there are 65 mph winds or 75 mph winds? It’s all semantics at this point
 
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care

There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

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Buoy

 
It’s weakened in pressure since about midnight last night. It was 998mb around then and they have it at 1002mb now on TWC
 
It’s weakened in pressure since about midnight last night. It was 998mb around then and they have it at 1002mb now on TWC
TWC is way off and they must really be behind, it has not weakened, in fact last pressure officially by NHC was 993mb w/winds up to 60mph
 
There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

View attachment 88397

Buoy

Too bad we don't have a buoy NE of the center to give us a good surface reading
 
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There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

View attachment 88397

Buoy

You’d be surprised how quick it can wrap up nearing the coast line … let’s watch and see what he does
 
We're seeing several things happen here...
Convective tugging I talked about yesterday obviously...

But my goodness, the small area of improved light shear near the center ... Plus now, Fred is aligning more with the directional shear which further reduces relative NET shear...so we see it time and time again with some recurving systems that are axisymmetric, how some jet dynamics improve venting without a classic outflow pattern ...

24 hours ago, I would have bet Fred was 60mph tops... Classic example of needing to be over prepared and always take precautions like it will be stronger than anticipated... Just in case...
 
You mean TWC actually still does weather? Last time I turned it on there I had to wait about 20 mins to see anything weather related.
They go all in on big events! There has been non stop coverage since last night! It’s pissing me off! I tuned in for animal storm stories! ??
 
Looks like precip totals have been cut down slightly on modeling overnight. See no 5-8” pockets over NC on this morning’s forecasts
 
Looks like precip totals have been cut down slightly on modeling overnight. See no 5-8” pockets over NC on this morning’s forecasts
How bout pockets of 10?



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Could someone explain to me these bands here and what are they doing? Is it the genesis of the Atlantic moisture feed?

View attachment 88409
Systems often pull moisture in from the Atlantic side with help of the Gulf Stream but in this setup it will only penetrate so far inland. NHC says a few inches for coastal South Carolina only. It will quickly stop once Fred is a little further north.
 
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