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Tropical TS Fred

NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah this would be high end possibility IMO we’ve seen how rapid intensification can do upon landfall … we will see how wrapped up he can get before then
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Yeah .. looking like Fred makes a run at Hurricane before landfall .. HMON gets down to 985 I think and the HWRF 96B9D7BA-7160-4B38-A33B-A4ECB8A3F468.png
 
Should be interesting to see just what this system can pull off in the next 10ish or so hrs......NHC says it still isnt stacked and there are a lot of buoys near it showing gust to around 50-55 at best with sustained in the 30's. So its bark ( sat presentation) is bigger than its bite at the moment at least....still if it can keep it up there might end up being a small area right on the core with near hurricane conditions by landfall.
 
This "buoy" will be/is close to the center and100 ft off the ground.....sustained 40 mph gusting to 50.....

NDBC - Station SGOF1 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from C-MAN station SGOF1 (29.408N 84.858W) - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
 
Downeastnc said:
This "buoy" will be/is close to the center and100 ft off the ground.....sustained 40 mph gusting to 50.....

NDBC - Station SGOF1 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from C-MAN station SGOF1 (29.408N 84.858W) - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
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Yeah this is probably a situation where the winds catch up last minute .. people will be caught off guard here … I think he easily goes Hurricane soon today
 
Erin in 1995 strengthened rapidly from a moderate TS to a category 2 hurricane in that area over the last 6-8 hours before landfall. Now that storm had actually crossed over the peninsula and had maintained fairly good structure, but it does give a good example of what can happen if the conditions are right. If Fred can get well stacked over the next few hours, it may have a shot
 
ForsythSnow said:
994 extrap approaching the center. Looks a whole lot cleaner and breezier in the weakest quadrant. I'd say we find 60 mph in the nw?
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Will not be surprised to see hurricane warnings go up just out of precaution. Still has a good 8 hrs over water and really nothing to impede strengthening now other than land proximity. Which sometimes helps tighten up rotation
 
PSA: If you hold your finger on a image, from any site, on a IOS device you can hit save to my photos. Sorry Mornings are for coffee and contemplation.
 
Fred getting it's act together quick now, look at the CDO expanding westward really for the first time and any shear is basically southerly which is negated by the northward movement and deep convection right over the LLC (I think). Seen a lot of these ramp up right at landfall over the last few years
 
iGRXY said:
Fred has already turned to the NE so you should expect even more elevated rainfall totals in NE Georgia and the western and central Carolinas. 4-6” looks to be the average with 8-12” near the NC/SC border where there will be serious lift.
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I think that's just a wobble. Satellite presentation seems to still be NNW as far as I can tell
 
NWS finally on board with my 30% chance thinking yesterday…less than 1” rain north west Georgia. But I think it will cover a larger area given the east trends. Main action will be well north east of the center.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think that's just a wobble. Satellite presentation seems to still be NNW as far as I can tell
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Officially due north movement. Satellite looked a little wonky thanks to it actually getting aligned, latest recon fix puts the LLC right under deepest convection and the mid level rotation. Looks stacked, good thing it's running out of time
 
BirdManDoomW said:
30% chance imo very little rain 1-2” or less than that for north west Georgia into extreme south-western NC IF the models were to keep correcting east it wouldn’t take 50 milestone quickly bring the drop off totals.
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As of now it hasn’t reached extreme south western NC but I believe north central Georgia should see less rain now given the east trends. With that said still a lot of rain central Georgia into north eastern Georgia.
 
Euro brings 7”+ of rain for Watauga, Ashe and Wilkes. Given it doesn’t handle upslope perfectly I expect double digit totals for some. I don’t chase floods in the mtns but Blowing Rock is sitting very nice right now if anyone wants a washout.
 
Henry2326 said:
Crazy.....NHC's 4 am discussion had it at max winds of 60 mph in 12 hours.
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I think NHC doesn't give the hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) enough credit and rely on global models too much for intensity. When you see the hurricane models showing a much stronger storm, that is a hint to me that there is a good possibility that a storm could get much stronger than other models show. Granted, yes they are usually over forecasting the intensity at times but as we have seen the past few years they do pretty well.
 
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care
 
Latest Euro rain map looks most realistic given past tropical systems and how they run up or just west of the mtns. 1”ish north Georgia and points west, then boom 8” north east Georgia into Virginia. Major rain shadow Charlotte-Iredell-Winston with only 1-2” then quickly 4-8” foothills and 6-12” mountains.
 
I’m even going to say a quick ramp up to strong CAT 1 to even a CAT 2 is possible here.. satellite presentation is absolutely stunning and almost looks like it wants to pop an eye
 
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