Tropical TS Fred

[HugeSnowStick]

at this point not heading to cent alabama.

 

[Storm5]

More eastern corrections are coming . The north turn appears to have taken place much earlier than the NHc thought


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[accu35]

1 2 Freddie coming for you

 

[ForsythSnow]

With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.

With how far east the path has shifted and the current movement, it seems highly improbable the center does anything more than clips the AL border counties. Highest rain will be in the southeastern 1/4 of the state where the center tracks into GA and that likely won't be nearly as much as N GA or SC will see

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.

Incorrect. All this west wish casting is really something...

 

[Chazwin]

With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.

Have you been paying attention to the modeling today or what’s been talked about on here? The center isn’t heading for central Alabama. The NHC forecast track which is west of the guidance has going through se Alabama before going into GA. Even that track is in big question as on satellite it’s almost due north now. Most likely the 11pm update will be further east.

 

[SD]

I mean the nams seemed to be more north at and after landfall than the globals. The hrrr jumped way left on its last run.

 

[Zander98al]

I mean the nams seemed to be more north at and after landfall than the globals. The hrrr jumped way left on its last run.

Based solely on the convective outlook by spc. I'd say they think the track goes through central Alabama. But heck what do I know.

 

[deltadog03]

I mean the nams seemed to be more north at and after landfall than the globals. The hrrr jumped way left on its last run.

Right, models have been showing a NW jump for the last few hours to next 6, but haven't seen it yet. Still looks like its moving almost due N

 

[Zander98al]

With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.

Everybody is jumping the gun on your post getting triggered. Very well could do this.

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[deltadog03]

Also look how the new storms are moving West to move over the top of the LLC

 

[SD]

Right, models have been showing a NW jump for the last few hours to next 6, but haven't seen it yet. Still looks like its moving almost due N

Yeah I'm interested to see the recon fixes. With the Tampa radar down and pulsing convection it's hard to judge

 

[deltadog03]

Here is a **current** steering map...Hard to see this buck west much of due north.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Here is a **current** steering map...Hard to see this buck west much of due north.

View attachment 88360

That near steering current is almost a carbon copy of the NHC current track.

 

[Snowfan]

Levi has posted a new video.

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah I'm interested to see the recon fixes. With the Tampa radar down and pulsing convection it's hard to judge

I think any jogs to the west are likely going to be a result of convection trying to wrap around the center. However looking at the steering map that Webb just posted, it’s going to be hard for it to go west too much, and those steering currents should turn it NNE pretty quickly after landfall

 

[RBR71]

Yeah I'm interested to see the recon fixes. With the Tampa radar down and pulsing convection it's hard to judge

Stupid time for radar to be down

 

[SD]

Stupid time for radar to be down

Yeah suboptimal timing

 

[SD]

I think any jogs to the west are likely going to be a result of convection trying to wrap around the center. However looking at the steering map that Webb just posted, it’s going to be hard for it to go west too much, and those steering currents should turn it NNE pretty quickly after landfall

Yeah the hrrr shows this well. It's left initially as convection wraps up some then takes a hard right. Probably evens out to due north as it approaches the coast

 

[Storm5]

Accu enjoy your rain . You should see a good amount tonight

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[deltadog03]

Should know shortly, but looks like they just punched the center and it looks pretty much on a due north line.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Just what my yard doesn’t need lol

 

[BufordWX]

HRRR looking pretty interesting for north Georgia. Keeps the remnant core very well defined.

 

[J.C.]

HRRR looking pretty interesting for north Georgia. Keeps the remnant core very well defined.View attachment 88365

Time and time again during late August and September we see this same track like clockwork.

 

[Snow_chaser]

HRRR looking pretty interesting for north Georgia. Keeps the remnant core very well defined.View attachment 88365

I smell a potential digital learning day for some school districts

 

[Jessy89]

I smell a potential digital learning day for some school districts

My kids school is closed this week for COVID. Don’t have to worry about my wife and kids getting out in it. I’ll be working outside in it though


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[ForsythSnow]

The recon center shifted SW it appears on the 2nd fix, strange.

 

[RBR71]

The recon center shifted SW it appears on the 2nd fix, strange.

I just noticed that and coming here to say same thing, interesting and weird

 

[deltadog03]

No doubt. If you look at the IR (night mode) it's like it spit out a vorticity center around a bigger LLC? Because what spit out SW looks like is spun out. If that makes sense. Lol

 

[Storm5]

No doubt. If you look at the IR (night mode) it's like it spit out a vorticity center around a bigger LLC? Because what spit out SW looks like is spun out. If that makes sense. Lol

None at all .....


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[deltadog03]

So the red circle is what recon found, and the other circle looks like something is there..maybe a competing centers? Idk. I guess we wait and see. Lol

 

[Brent]

The NHC should probably consider a hurricane watch

 

[RBR71]

No doubt. If you look at the IR (night mode) it's like it spit out a vorticity center around a bigger LLC? Because what spit out SW looks like is spun out. If that makes sense. Lol

Spot on, if you zoom in on the loop you clearly see the llc move w/sw, really bizarre haha. Who knows

 

[Tarheel1]

Eric Webb believes this could be a hurricane at landfall in the Panhandle

He can only forecast heat and Haboobs now! ?

 

[RBR71]

HRRR kinda shows that west jump, also fwiw NAM consistent on LF around Destin or a touch west

 

[DadOfJax]

Very weak steering currents and continued lopsided convection to the east is certainly going to push the center further westward, as it appears we are already seeing.

 

[SD]

HRRR kinda shows that west jump, also fwiw NAM consistent on LF around Destin or a touch west

3k drops about 40mb until landfall seems legit

 

[Chazwin]

Very weak steering currents and continued lopsided convection to the east is certainly going to push the center further westward, as it appears we are already seeing.

The steering currents are not weak. The storm is moving at 10mph

 

[iGRXY]

Very weak steering currents and continued lopsided convection to the east is certainly going to push the center further westward, as it appears we are already seeing.

It’s not though lol.

 

[Snowfan]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Fred a little stronger.
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