Yeah it’s not different much at all other than maybe giving areas west of Charlotte less rain … this whole mess is headed NE to even N at the end of the run ..
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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Euro has been in the crapper for a while now. Lot of folks have just been in denial about it.
Brent
Member
The King is dead
Downeastnc
Member
Latest HRRR really strengthens the wind field on the east side in NC, pretty widespread gust in the 45-55 mph range over the eastern parts of NC, and has it for 4-8 hrs as well.....not sure how much I buy into this though it seems whenever the models show this it always ends up overdone....
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Further, the 18z HRRR has 1-3in for Union Co and CLT with a couple tenths verbatim. Pretty tight cut off there.
Going out on a limb here and say it will not verify
Henry2326
Member
lj0109
Member
Cell north of Metter, GA had a pretty tight couplet for a brief period:
The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a
* Tornado Warning for portions of...
Bulloch County in southeastern Georgia...
Candler County in southeastern Georgia...
* Until 430 PM EDT.
* At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Metter, moving northwest at 20 mph.
The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a
* Tornado Warning for portions of...
Bulloch County in southeastern Georgia...
Candler County in southeastern Georgia...
* Until 430 PM EDT.
* At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Metter, moving northwest at 20 mph.
lj0109
Member
New TOR for Jacksonville Metro:
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
437 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
DUVAL COUNTY...
At 437 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mandarin, moving north at 30 mph.
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
437 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
DUVAL COUNTY...
At 437 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mandarin, moving north at 30 mph.
gawxnative
Member
FATALITY REPORTED in LSR from KJAX.. in SW Metro Jacksonville from Tree on two vehicles
lj0109
Member
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
454 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Nassau County in northeastern Florida...
Northeastern Duval County in northeastern Florida...
* Until 530 PM EDT.
* At 454 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located over
Arlington, moving north at 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
454 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Nassau County in northeastern Florida...
Northeastern Duval County in northeastern Florida...
* Until 530 PM EDT.
* At 454 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located over
Arlington, moving north at 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
iGRXY
Member
STill has yet to pivot to the NE. The longer this stays North, the higher rain amounts from I26 east.
This storm has definitely stayed on the western side of the cone the last few days and it continues now. Also you have to wonder if as it starts to pull Atlantic moisture in out ahead of it, if we’ll see more bands of rain develop across SC and rotate north and west. The one that’s moving north across CLT just came through here and jumped my dewpoint up from 65 to 76… definitely feeling tropical now
Yeah I would use the NAM 3km wind gusts as a more likely scenario for winds are kind the state .. widespread 20-30 mph winds with some gusts to 40-50 in isolated spots
Yeah, I think 2-3 inches are a good bet for 77 and east at this juncture. She was supposed to be turning NE earlier today. Those western paths will probably end up verifying after all. Although, nothing like the NAM was showing yesterday.
lj0109
Member
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Camden GA-
549 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTY...
At 549 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Kings Bay Base,
moving north at 40 mph.
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Camden GA-
549 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTY...
At 549 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Kings Bay Base,
moving north at 40 mph.
Last edited:
Yeah, you can even look at the forecast path from 5pm yesterday and compare it to today’s 5pm advisory. Today’s forecast path was on the edge of yesterday’s cone. Even now for it to follow the new track, it would have to turn sharp in the next hour, but it’s been holding at a steady 10 degrees for a while now. Something to keep in mind also is that most of this rain should fall in about 6-8 hours, so 2-3 inches of rain in such a short amount of time could definitely cause some flash flooding… you have to wonder if they put Flash Flood Watches later this evening