Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z Early tropical models are west again...right up into east Charlotte/Matthews/Fro AreaMost guidance right now is still East up central NC.
12Z Early tropical models are west again...right up into east Charlotte/Matthews/Fro AreaMost guidance right now is still East up central NC.
@Shaggy @Downeastnc @WeatherNC if these latest model trends hold, Elsa may spare y'all from those tropical rains that you surely don't need.
These maps are garbage. I refuse to entertain them.
Didn’t Brad Panicovich guarantee not a drop from this?12Z Early tropical models are west again...right up into east Charlotte/Matthews/Fro Area
Essentially. 95 and East only. Aged like mayonnaise outside in the summer.Didn’t Brad Panicovich guarantee not a drop from this?
Not a hurricane model, but that aNAM tho!
Brad NamovitchView attachment 86260
Not a hurricane model, but that aNAM tho!
Brad NamovitchView attachment 86260
Shoot us a video when that yellow comes rolling through Hallifax countyAnybody got the pretty, yet unreliable, wind gust map from the Euro? This looks fun.....
View attachment 86257
I would never advise going with the NAM for a tropical system, especially when it goes way against NHC guidance.The NAM has been persistent with a westerly track since yesterday. I don't know how much I trust it though... But it hasn't budged.
I’ll take euro wind gusts for 1000 please!
Regardless of where this goes (I still think probably between Charlotte and Raleigh) those outer bands on the north and east side of the storm are going to bring a tornado threat .. I would be interested to see what the experimental tornado outlook looks like that someone in here posts some times that thing is oddly spot on a lot of the timeNot a hurricane model, but that aNAM tho!
Brad NamovitchView attachment 86260
Unfortunately I do think y’all see decent tropical outer and rains at the least similar to what the HRRR is spitting out .. luckily you are right that this thing is a fast mover and lack of rain past few days means this shouldn’t be too terrible but tropical systems are always trickyLuckily its fast moving we dont need a lot of rain on the headwaters....ground here is pretty dry, ditches have emptied etc..... actually have not had much rain the last week or so....I want to see some kind of jet enhancement to give us some decent winds but probably wont even get that.
Yep somewhere between Charlotte and Raleigh looks about right