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Tropical TS Elsa

I think areas east from Spartanburg county, Laurens county, and Greenwood county could get into some really beneficial inch or 2 of rain. Closer you get to 77 the more rainfall. The NHC was way too stubborn in shifting the track west even with a ton of guidance showing that and continuing to show it. A track up through Columbia is likely but could be 20-30 miles west or east of there. That will determine whether those West of 77 get hardly any rain, 1-2", or even 2-4" out of this.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and fairly close to NHC track....
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Gust to 40ish on it so maybe we do see some gust 40-50 mph even off the water in eastern NC tomorrow.....it just hard to say with these rem lows, most of the time we never hit what the models show so probably more realistic is 30-35 mph gust at best lol. I mean they are like snowstorms they rarely overperform versus modeling...
 
Well it looks like Brad P is finally caving. Could get the link to post, but he just posted on Facebook a short term flash flood threat for tomorrow especially the eastern portion of CLT metro
 
12z NAM3k made a pretty significant Eastward adjustment. The 3k and HRRR are in fairly strong agreement on track, potential QPF etc.

Historically, when models and NWS disagree on track - I side with NWS. Not only are they the experts, but tend to be far more accurate.

HRRR and 3k both keep CLT with 1-1.25 QPF verbatim. Lee County (Sanford) & Raleigh-Durham both with nice potential for solid rain. Who knows, could even see some power outages here or there along 95.

PS - I don't believe they should had ever of called this a 'cane. BUT, I am looking forward to some tropical weather tomorrow for sure!
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
12z NAM3k made a pretty significant Eastward adjustment. The 3k and HRRR are in fairly strong agreement on track, potential QPF etc.

Historically, when models and NWS disagree on track - I side with NWS. Not only are they the experts, but tend to be far more accurate.

HRRR and 3k both keep CLT with 1-1.25 QPF verbatim. Lee County (Sanford) & Raleigh-Durham both with nice potential for solid rain. Who knows, could even see some power outages here or there along 95.

PS - I don't believe they should had ever of called this a 'cane. BUT, I am looking forward to some tropical weather tomorrow for sure!
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On both models, there is quick uptick in rainfall as soon as you get east of the city. Most of Union, southeast Cabarrus, and Stanly counties are solidly in the 3-4 inch range. If that comes all in 6-8 hours, there definitely could be some flash flooding issues
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
I respect the conservative nature of the forecast... but the hints at a I77 swatch of heavy precip has been around for days. Again, I respect the experts as I am a mere mortal wx lover and nothing else. Watch CLT stay (mostly) dry and Pano take a nice W
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Actually, that would be a L for Brad because now he's on board with the more western paths. And he's going with 1-3 inches of rain. So, that would really BIG L for him.
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
I respect the conservative nature of the forecast... but the hints at a I77 swatch of heavy precip has been around for days. Again, I respect the experts as I am a mere mortal wx lover and nothing else. Watch CLT stay (mostly) dry and Pano take a nice W
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Honestly at this point, it would take a fairly significant east trend for CLT metro to miss out on at least a period of heavy rain. Certainly anything is possible, but does seem the track is finally starting to get nailed down
 
Latest HRRR runs seem further east with the heaviest rain.....it only goes out 18 hrs but if you carry this on out it would be a fairly significant decrease for RDU to the west.....

HRRRMA_prec_precacc_018.png
 
JHS said:
Going to end up being an I-95 event and east when all is said and done.
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Yep and there won't be a drop, not a single drop, anywhere west of 95 from this or any event for the next 20 years. Hope you guys are stocking up out that way. Good luck!
 
Downeastnc said:
Latest HRRR runs seem further east with the heaviest rain.....it only goes out 18 hrs but if you carry this on out it would be a fairly significant decrease for RDU to the west.....

View attachment 86272
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Looks like the storm is only slightly east of it's 12z location but it's also slightly weaker. I would guess RDU would still receive heavy rates, and possible do better (than 12z); whereas 12z had some of the highest QPF RDU westward. But who knows....these tropical systems tend to do what they want to.....
 
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