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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
Downeastnc
Member
lj0109
Member
Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021
Areas affected...Southeast Georgia and southern coastal South
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be needed by 00z across portions
of southeast Georgia and into southern areas of coastal South
Carolina and Tropical Storm Elsa continues northeastward this
evening and tonight.
DISCUSSION...Two tornadoes have been reported over the past 1-2
hours across parts of northeast FL within an pronounced convective
rain band on the east/northeastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa.
These tornadoes have largely been focused near a surface confluence
axis where near-surface winds have been nearly due easterly,
contributing to locally higher values of low-level SRH. The tornado
threat associated with this rain band/confluence axis will translate
to the northeast this evening along the southeast GA/SC coast in
tandem with the tropical storm. The easterly winds north of the
confluence axis will allow for long fetches off the coast and
support a continued influx of higher theta-e air with dewpoints in
the mid 70s. Given this potential, a downstream tornado watch will
be needed before 00z to address the evening/overnight threat.
lj0109
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This is what WRAL is calling for.
I wonder how the tornado threat will be here, too.
I wonder how the tornado threat will be here, too.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A
WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on surface observations.
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A
WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on surface observations.
pcbjr
Member
For those of you who want a day off work and hope for some weather to justify it, here's the other side of the coin ... from a little storm that couldn't ... but did ...
www.news4jax.com
www.news4jax.com
www.news4jax.com
www.news4jax.com
SMH ...
NWS confirms tornado in Southeast Georgia; Kings Bay reports 10 injured
A tornado touched down early Wednesday evening in Southeast Georgia as Tropical Storm Elsa moved through, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
www.news4jax.com
Damage reports roll in after tornado touches down in Jacksonville
The National Weather Service is investigating reports of damage, debris and trees down after a tornadic cell passed over Jacksonville on Wednesday evening.
www.news4jax.com
Man killed when tree branch falls on cars in Ortega, Jacksonville police say
A man died Wednesday after a tree fell and hit two cars in Ortega as Tropical Storm Elsa moved through North Florida, according to the Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department.
www.news4jax.com
So you thought Elsa’s impact on Jacksonville was over?
After coming ashore in Florida’s Big Bend around 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Elsa moved through southern Georgia on Wednesday evening.
www.news4jax.com
SMH ...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
For those of you who want a day off work and hope for some weather to justify it, here's the other side of the coin ... from a little storm that couldn't ... but did ...
NWS confirms tornado in Southeast Georgia; Kings Bay reports 10 injured
A tornado touched down early Wednesday evening in Southeast Georgia as Tropical Storm Elsa moved through, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
Damage reports roll in after tornado touches down in Jacksonville
The National Weather Service is investigating reports of damage, debris and trees down after a tornadic cell passed over Jacksonville on Wednesday evening.
Man killed when tree branch falls on cars in Ortega, Jacksonville police say
A man died Wednesday after a tree fell and hit two cars in Ortega as Tropical Storm Elsa moved through North Florida, according to the Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department.
So you thought Elsa’s impact on Jacksonville was over?
After coming ashore in Florida’s Big Bend around 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Elsa moved through southern Georgia on Wednesday evening.
SMH ...
I said I was hoping the threat of bad weather would give me a day off, not that I hope something bad actually happens.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
903 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM ...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...
* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
* AT 902 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WAS LOCATED NEAR DOBOY SOUND BUOY D, OR 9 NM NORTHEAST
OF ALTAMAHA SOUND, MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.
HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.
----------------------------------------
Meanwhile, thunder in the distance is steadily getting louder here.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
903 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM ...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...
* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
* AT 902 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WAS LOCATED NEAR DOBOY SOUND BUOY D, OR 9 NM NORTHEAST
OF ALTAMAHA SOUND, MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.
HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.
----------------------------------------
Meanwhile, thunder in the distance is steadily getting louder here.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well I had an interesting evening today that was Elsa related.
Went walking during a short rain break and thought I had more time, so I went down to the end of the road. It suddenly went from being fairly calm to a tropical downpour with it being breezy.
I had an umbrella, but I still got soaked.
Thankfully, this wasn't a thunderstorm, but when it started, it shook me up some.
Went walking during a short rain break and thought I had more time, so I went down to the end of the road. It suddenly went from being fairly calm to a tropical downpour with it being breezy.
I had an umbrella, but I still got soaked.
Thankfully, this wasn't a thunderstorm, but when it started, it shook me up some.
Last edited:
It would appear per radar trends we're likely soon going to get smacked pretty hard with thunderstorms. As it is, rain rates and winds are picking up and the rumbling thunder is slowly getting louder and more frequent. I probably should get the flashlight sand candles ready just in case. We've had steady rain for close to 4 hours.
It looks on radar that more moisture is wrapping around to the west and northwest of the center. This obviously is from moisture now getting pulled in off the Atlantic. I still wonder if we might see that shield grow to the north as we go through the night
??
GSP less than .50 , they are on the dry side
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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I am getting a failure to reach WeatherTap on both ATT Symmetrical 1gbps Fiber as well as over VPN through my employer. However, it is fine on Verizon LTE.
Is anyone else seeing the same?
I sent a inquiry ticket to WeatherTap earlier this evening along with my routing information.
The problem started sometime since early this morning.
Is anyone else seeing the same?
I sent a inquiry ticket to WeatherTap earlier this evening along with my routing information.
The problem started sometime since early this morning.
SAV, about to get shellacked with rain! 2-3” an hour rates +! That lightning looks crazy too! Right off shore, has to be continuous..
Jessy89
Member
Some of these cells rotating in from the Atlantic. Close to savanna has rotation
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