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Tropical TS Chantal 2025

I thought yesterday it was forecasted to go east of Wake when it came inland.
Chantal started moving west of due north last night before landfall. The environment started to become quite favorable for strengthening, and in fact, convection began wrapping around the northern and northwestern flank of Chantal.

Because Chantal was strengthening and quite significantly relatively speaking compared to its lifecycle over open waters, and very favorable outflow (noted strong poleward outflow channel developed on the western side after landfall), even though weakening back to a depression, allowed Chantal to continue developing intense convection and rainfalls on the NW flank.
 
Cloud tops cooling and lightning picking up, not great. Really good divergent jet to the NW of the LLC right now it's going to be a while before it winds down unfortunately
Yeah those cells trying to get intense over areas approaching 10" of rain. Crazy
 
Just a typical footprint with this one. Tropical or not, coastal footprint wins out. Just like in a snowstorm. If it comes in off the Atlantic it’s hard to get anything more than a thin cloud deck back west. I had no idea you guys were getting this much rain. I just drove through there. Incredible
 
Father in law said it barely rained @ the OBX today. Idk what they were forecast for but I think they were supposed to get more than “barely rained”
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.

* AT 935 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ROXBORO, CONCORD, SURL, BUSHY FORK, BETHEL HILL, MAYO RESERVOIR,
HYCO LAKE, HYCO MARINA AND MORIAH.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AREAS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
 
‼️🚨⚠️ RECORD FLOODING POSSIBLE
“The Haw River at Bynum in Chatham County is now forecast to crest near 21.2 feet at around 8 am Monday morning. At 931 pm the river was at 17.0 feet and the river had surged up more than 4 feet during the past hour and 7.7 feet over the past two hours. This crest is just below the all time crest or flood of record of 21.8 feet set during Hurricane Fran.” -NWS Raleigh WRAL TV
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

* AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES
HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT
TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE
THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER
CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW
RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND
SUTPHIN.
 
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