Tropical TS Chantal 2025

[jackendrickwx]

Evacuations underway at Camelot Village in Chapel Hill.

Evacuations in Pittsboro as well. Long ways to go still for much of Orange and Alamance

 

[Stormsfury]

I thought yesterday it was forecasted to go east of Wake when it came inland.

Chantal started moving west of due north last night before landfall. The environment started to become quite favorable for strengthening, and in fact, convection began wrapping around the northern and northwestern flank of Chantal.

Because Chantal was strengthening and quite significantly relatively speaking compared to its lifecycle over open waters, and very favorable outflow (noted strong poleward outflow channel developed on the western side after landfall), even though weakening back to a depression, allowed Chantal to continue developing intense convection and rainfalls on the NW flank.

 

[RBR71]

Yikes

 

[Snowacane]

10 inches here just near S Chapel Hill and coming down at the rate of 4 an hour

 

[jackendrickwx]

Southern Orange probably has the most rain left. Another 2-3" or so possible, I'd guess

 

[lexxnchloe]

Still an impressive blob

 

[Snowacane]

Southern Orange probably has the most rain left. Another 2-3" or so possible, I'd guess

Damn, it's coming down hard with thunder and lightning

 

[RBR71]

Yeah convection needs to start waning or it needs to start moving, if not some places gonna get over a foot. Easily

 

[lexxnchloe]

Tropical systems tend to squeeze out alot of rain at night.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/krax/standard

 

[Carolina Fever]

I see the track has it eventually moving northeast over Wake and into VA. Any chance Wake could get the rain the places to the west are getting tonight?

 

[RBR71]

I see the track has it eventually moving northeast over Wake and into VA. Any chance Wake could get the rain the places to the west are getting tonight?

No

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Good stuff RC! I came through Raleigh earlier otw back from KDH and wondered which of the 42 Bojangles you might be at

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 173376

Oh my goodness!

 

[SD]

Cloud tops cooling and lightning picking up, not great. Really good divergent jet to the NW of the LLC right now it's going to be a while before it winds down unfortunately

 

[Carolina Fever]

No

Why is that?

 

[Snowacane]

Now 11

 

[jackendrickwx]

Only road washout I have seen thus far

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Big problems in mebane area

Wow! We came right through Mebane and Burlington this morning/early afternoon. It wasn’t even raining.

 

[NCSNOW]

2.2 here at the Pomderosa. Over 7 past 7.5 days

 

[RBR71]

Why is that?

1) it would have to shift SE
2) it will be moving, shorter duration event
3) it will be weakening by then

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[RBR71]

Cloud tops cooling and lightning picking up, not great. Really good divergent jet to the NW of the LLC right now it's going to be a while before it winds down unfortunately

Yeah those cells trying to get intense over areas approaching 10" of rain. Crazy

 

[NCSNOW]

Moore county up into Chatham looked to really have got the heavy dumpage, just from my radar observations over course of today.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just a typical footprint with this one. Tropical or not, coastal footprint wins out. Just like in a snowstorm. If it comes in off the Atlantic it’s hard to get anything more than a thin cloud deck back west. I had no idea you guys were getting this much rain. I just drove through there. Incredible

 

[jackendrickwx]

"People trapped with water up to their necks or higher" at camelot village apts in CH

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Father in law said it barely rained @ the OBX today. Idk what they were forecast for but I think they were supposed to get more than “barely rained”

 

[Carolina Fever]

I know the forecast this morning was for the heaviest precip being along and west of US 1. It looks like it ended up further west than forecasted.

 

[Snowacane]

"People trapped with water up to their necks or higher" at camelot village apts in CH

This has been more rain for Chapel Hill than Fran

 

[Carolina Fever]

This is ending up a lot worse than it was thought it was going to be just 24 hours ago.

 

[jackendrickwx]

folks down near bynum and pittbsoro on the Haw need to be ready, the highest crest is yet to come. moderate to major flood stage expected by midnight

 

[JHS]

Yeah convection needs to start waning or it needs to start moving, if not some places gonna get over a foot. Easily

This is going to be Gaston from 2004 it looks like. That one hit Richmond VA awfully hard.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[jackendrickwx]

5.3" at the old airport in Chapel Hill

A little over an hour later, 7.3"

 

[Carolina Fever]

Listening to the scanner from Orange County and there are multiple water rescues taking place.

 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.

* AT 935 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ROXBORO, CONCORD, SURL, BUSHY FORK, BETHEL HILL, MAYO RESERVOIR,
HYCO LAKE, HYCO MARINA AND MORIAH.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AREAS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Haw near Bynum is expected to near the record crest set with Fran!

 

[Carolina Fever]

RECORD FLOODING POSSIBLE
“The Haw River at Bynum in Chatham County is now forecast to crest near 21.2 feet at around 8 am Monday morning. At 931 pm the river was at 17.0 feet and the river had surged up more than 4 feet during the past hour and 7.7 feet over the past two hours. This crest is just below the all time crest or flood of record of 21.8 feet set during Hurricane Fran.” -NWS Raleigh WRAL TV

 

[Carolina Fever]

Just heard a call in Chapel Hill of someone hanging on to a stop sign in flood waters.

 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

* AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES
HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT
TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE
THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER
CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW
RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND
SUTPHIN.

 

[WeatherNC]

Assuming the flow is correct, Haw at Bynum is pushing 50,000 cubic feet a second, that’s about half what the Guadeloupe was at peak near Kerrville on the morning of 7/4.